Causal Relationship between Asset Prices and Output in the United States: Evidence from the State-Level Panel Granger Causality Test

2015 ◽  
Vol 50 (10) ◽  
pp. 1728-1741 ◽  
Author(s):  
Furkan Emirmahmutoglu ◽  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Nicholas Apergis ◽  
Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne ◽  
Tsangyao Chang ◽  
...  
10.2196/22880 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. e22880
Author(s):  
Milad Asgari Mehrabadi ◽  
Nikil Dutt ◽  
Amir M Rahmani

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has affected virtually every region in the world. At the time of this study, the number of daily new cases in the United States was greater than that in any other country, and the trend was increasing in most states. Google Trends provides data regarding public interest in various topics during different periods. Analyzing these trends using data mining methods may provide useful insights and observations regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. Objective The objective of this study is to consider the predictive ability of different search terms not directly related to COVID-19 with regard to the increase of daily cases in the United States. In particular, we are concerned with searches related to dine-in restaurants and bars. Data were obtained from the Google Trends application programming interface and the COVID-19 Tracking Project. Methods To test the causation of one time series on another, we used the Granger causality test. We considered the causation of two different search query trends related to dine-in restaurants and bars on daily positive cases in the US states and territories with the 10 highest and 10 lowest numbers of daily new cases of COVID-19. In addition, we used Pearson correlations to measure the linear relationships between different trends. Results Our results showed that for states and territories with higher numbers of daily cases, the historical trends in search queries related to bars and restaurants, which mainly occurred after reopening, significantly affected the number of daily new cases on average. California, for example, showed the most searches for restaurants on June 7, 2020; this affected the number of new cases within two weeks after the peak, with a P value of .004 for the Granger causality test. Conclusions Although a limited number of search queries were considered, Google search trends for restaurants and bars showed a significant effect on daily new cases in US states and territories with higher numbers of daily new cases. We showed that these influential search trends can be used to provide additional information for prediction tasks regarding new cases in each region. These predictions can help health care leaders manage and control the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on society and prepare for its outcomes.


2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 1176-1197
Author(s):  
Tareki Sadraou ◽  
Tarek Ben Al

In this paper we investigate the causal relationship between R&D cooperation and economic growth. We use an innovative econometric method which is based on a panel test of the Granger non causality hypothesis. We implement various tests with a sample of 32 industrial and developing countries over the 1970-2012 periods. The results provide support for a robust causality relationship from economic growth to the R&D cooperation. On the contrary, the non causality hypothesis from R&D cooperation to economic growth can't be rejected in most of the cases. However, these results only imply that, if such a relationship exists, it can't be easily identified in a simply bi-variate Granger causality test.


2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-27
Author(s):  
Kamaljit Singh ◽  
Vinod Kumar

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the trend and pattern of the Nifty-Fifty and sectorial indices. An attempt has been also made to find out the causal relationship among the Nifty-Fifty and NSE sectorial Indices. The unit root test and Granger-causality test has been applied to check the causal relationship between Nifty-Fifty and sectorial indices. The finding of the study shows that the financial service sector had performed better and followed by the banking sector among all the indices while the Pharma sector and the Realty sector were Under-performed in comparison to other indices. The Nifty-Fifty has been found less volatile in comparison to other sectorial indices however Realty sector indices show the highest volatility during the study period.


2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 229-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas J. Howe

Regulation of utilities at the state level in the United States is undertaken by a commission on which anywhere from three to seven commissioners sit and must vote on virtually all significant utility actions, including rate requests, resource plans, acquisitions and mergers, and financing mechanisms. Public utility commissions (PUCs) are, in a very real sense, courts with adjudicatory responsibility over the area of state utility laws. In hearing a utility case, they must follow the state’s statutes and court rules. The commissioners function as judges in this court of public utility law. In a majority of states, commissioners are appointed by the state’s governor with the advice and consent of the state legislature. In a significant minority of states, commissioners are elected by popular vote. However, recent changes in US election law have made it easier for corporations and special interest groups, called political action committees, to influence elections through donations targeting direct voter outreach on behalf of specific candidates. This chapter examines what the entry of political spending in PUC elections means, and whether elected commissioners can adjudicate in the public interest, or will adjudicate for special interests. The chapter concludes that while both the appointment and election governance model can produce both “good” and “bad” commissioners, it is the elected commission that is most at risk of selecting commissioners that will not be truly independent and objective arbiters of the law.


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