Reassessing the Impact of El Niño at the end of the early intermediate period from the perspective of the Lima culture

Ñawpa Pacha ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-231
Author(s):  
Ana Cecilia Mauricio
2009 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 303-332 ◽  
Author(s):  
David G. Beresford-Jones ◽  
Susana Arce T. ◽  
Oliver Q. Whaley ◽  
Alex J. Chepstow-Lusty

AbstractThe lower Ica Valley on the hyperarid south coast of Peru is today largely depopulated and bereft of cultivation, yet its extensive archaeological remains attest to substantial prehispanic populations. This paper describes archaeological investigations to retrace changes in geomorphology, ecology, and land-use in Samaca, one of the riparian oasis basins of the lower Río lea, with the aim of investigating when, how, and why such changes took place. Archaeological interpretations of culture change in the region often invoke the impacts of major ENSO perturbations (El Niño). While our investigations confirm that major El Niño events around the end of the Early Intermediate Period likely offer part of the explanation for marked landscape change in the Samaca Basin, we also demonstrate the significance of more gradual, human-induced destruction of Prosopis pallida (huarango) riparian dry-forest. Huarango is a remarkable leguminous hardwood that lives for over a millennium and provides forage, fuel, and food. Moreover, it plays a crucial role in integrating fragile desert ecosystems, enhancing soil fertility and moisture, and accomplishing desalination and microclimatic amelioration. We propose that south coast valleys remained densely forested well into the Early Intermediate Period, attenuating the impact of El Niño events and supporting hitherto underappreciated agroforestry adaptations. Gradual deforestation eventually crossed an environmental threshold: river and wind erosion increased dramatically and precipitated radical desertification, feeding back into cultural changes in the Middle Horizon. Thus we argue Prosopis-human ecological relationships merit proper recognition in our archaeological interpretations of the south coast of Peru.


2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (9) ◽  
pp. 2854-2870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tingting Gong ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein ◽  
Dehai Luo

Abstract This study examines the relationship between intraseasonal southern annular mode (SAM) events and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using daily 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. The data coverage spans the years 1979–2002, for the austral spring and summer seasons. The focus of this study is on the question of why positive SAM events dominate during La Niña and negative SAM events during El Niño. A composite analysis is performed on the zonal-mean zonal wind, Eliassen–Palm fluxes, and two diagnostic variables: the meridional potential vorticity gradient, a zonal-mean quantity that is used to estimate the likelihood of wave breaking, and the wave breaking index (WBI), which is used to evaluate the strength of the wave breaking. The results of this investigation suggest that the background zonal-mean flow associated with La Niña (El Niño) is preconditioned for strong (weak) anticyclonic wave breaking on the equatorward side of the eddy-driven jet, the type of wave breaking that is found to drive positive (negative) SAM events. A probability density function analysis of the WBI, for both La Niña and El Niño, indicates that strong anticyclonic wave breaking takes place much more frequently during La Niña and weak anticyclonic wave breaking during El Niño. It is suggested that these wave breaking characteristics, and their dependency on the background flow, can explain the strong preference for SAM events of one phase during ENSO. The analysis also shows that austral spring SAM events that coincide with ENSO are preceded by strong stratospheric SAM anomalies and then are followed by a prolonged period of wave breaking that lasts for approximately 30 days. These findings suggest that the ENSO background flow also plays a role in the excitation of stratospheric SAM anomalies and that the presence of these stratospheric SAM anomalies in turn excites and then maintains the tropospheric SAM anomalies via a positive eddy feedback.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 377
Author(s):  
Dong Eun Lee ◽  
Jaehee Kim ◽  
Yujin Heo ◽  
Hyunjin Kang ◽  
Eun Young Lee

The impact of climatic variability in atmospheric conditions on coastal environments accompanies adjustments in both the frequency and intensity of coastal storm surge events. The top winter season daily maximum sea level height events at 20 tidal stations around South Korea were examined to assess such impact of winter extratropical cyclone variability. As the investigation focusses on the most extreme sea level events, the impact of climate change is found to be invisible. It is revealed that the measures of extreme sea level events—frequency and intensity—do not correlate with the local sea surface temperature anomalies. Meanwhile, the frequency of winter extreme events exhibits a clear association with the concurrent climatic indices. It was determined that the annual frequency of the all-time top 5% winter daily maximum sea level events significantly and positively correlates with the NINO3.4 and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices at the majority of the 20 tidal stations. Hence, this indicates an increase in extreme event frequency and intensity, despite localized temperature cooling. This contradicts the expectation of increases in local extreme sea level events due to thermal expansion and global climate change. During El Nino, it is suggested that northward shifts of winter storm tracks associated with El Nino occur, disturbing the sea level around Korea more often. The current dominance of interannual storm track shifts, due to climate variability, over the impact of slow rise on the winter extreme sea level events, implies that coastal extreme sea level events will change through changes in the mechanical drivers rather than thermal expansion. The major storm tracks are predicted to continue shifting northward. The winter extreme sea level events in the midlatitude coastal region might not go through a monotonic change. They are expected to occur more often and more intensively in the near future, but might not continue doing so when northward shifting storm tracks move away from the marginal seas around Korea, as is predicted by the end of the century.


2018 ◽  
Vol 373 (1760) ◽  
pp. 20170301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard A. Betts ◽  
Chris D. Jones ◽  
Jeff. R. Knight ◽  
Ralph. F. Keeling ◽  
John. J. Kennedy ◽  
...  

In early 2016, we predicted that the annual rise in carbon dioxide concentration at Mauna Loa would be the largest on record. Our forecast used a statistical relationship between observed and forecast sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region and the annual CO 2 rise. Here, we provide a formal verification of that forecast. The observed rise of 3.4 ppm relative to 2015 was within the forecast range of 3.15 ± 0.53 ppm, so the prediction was successful. A global terrestrial biosphere model supports the expectation that the El Niño weakened the tropical land carbon sink. We estimate that the El Niño contributed approximately 25% to the record rise in CO 2 , with 75% due to anthropogenic emissions. The 2015/2016 CO 2 rise was greater than that following the previous large El Niño in 1997/1998, because anthropogenic emissions had increased. We had also correctly predicted that 2016 would be the first year with monthly mean CO 2 above 400 ppm all year round. We now estimate that atmospheric CO 2 at Mauna Loa would have remained above 400 ppm all year round in 2016 even if the El Niño had not occurred, contrary to our previous expectations based on a simple extrapolation of previous trends. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.


2018 ◽  
Vol 76 (4) ◽  
pp. 1122-1130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lotta Clara Kluger ◽  
Sophia Kochalski ◽  
Arturo Aguirre-Velarde ◽  
Ivonne Vivar ◽  
Matthias Wolff

Abstract In February and March 2017, a coastal El Niño caused extraordinary heavy rains and a rise in water temperatures along the coast of northern Peru. In this work, we document the impacts of this phenomenon on the artisanal fisheries and the scallop aquaculture sector, both of which represent important socio-economic activities for the province of Sechura. Despite the perceived absence of effective disaster management and rehabilitation policies, resource users opted for a wide range of different adaptation strategies and are currently striving towards recovery. One year after the event, the artisanal fisheries fleet has returned to operating almost on a normal scale, while the aquaculture sector is still drastically impacted, with many people continuing to work in different economic sectors and even in other regions of the country. Recovery of the social-ecological system of Sechura likely depends on the occurrence of scallop seed and the financial capacity of small-scale producers to reinitiate scallop cultures. Long-term consequences of this coastal El Niño are yet to be studied, though the need to develop trans-local and trans-sectoral management strategies for coping with disturbance events of this scale is emphasized.


2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (14) ◽  
pp. 3713-3736 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. N. Duncan ◽  
S. E. Strahan ◽  
Y. Yoshida ◽  
S. D. Steenrod ◽  
N. Livesey

Abstract. We present a modeling study of the troposphere-to-stratosphere transport (TST) of pollution from major biomass burning regions to the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS). TST occurs predominately through 1) slow ascent in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) to the LS and 2) quasi-horizontal exchange to the lowermost stratosphere (LMS). We show that biomass burning pollution regularly and significantly impacts the composition of the TTL, LS, and LMS. Carbon monoxide (CO) in the LS in our simulation and data from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) shows an annual oscillation in its composition that results from the interaction of an annual oscillation in slow ascent from the TTL to the LS and seasonal variations in sources, including a semi-annual oscillation in CO from biomass burning. The impacts of CO sources that peak when ascent is seasonally low are damped (e.g. Southern Hemisphere biomass burning) and vice-versa for sources that peak when ascent is seasonally high (e.g. extra-tropical fossil fuels). Interannual variation of CO in the UT/LS is caused primarily by year-to-year variations in biomass burning and the locations of deep convection. During our study period, 1994–1998, we find that the highest concentrations of CO in the UT/LS occurred during the strong 1997–1998 El Niño event for two reasons: i. tropical deep convection shifted to the eastern Pacific Ocean, closer to South American and African CO sources, and ii. emissions from Indonesian biomass burning were higher. This extreme event can be seen as an upper bound on the impact of biomass burning pollution on the UT/LS. We estimate that the 1997 Indonesian wildfires increased CO in the entire TTL and tropical LS (>60 mb) by more than 40% and 10%, respectively, for several months. Zonal mean ozone increased and the hydroxyl radical decreased by as much as 20%, increasing the lifetimes and, subsequently TST, of trace gases. Our results indicate that the impact of biomass burning pollution on the UT/LS is likely greatest during an El Niño event due to favorable dynamics and historically higher burning rates.


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