A case study of dietary cereal demand forecasts for Neo infantile atrophy

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (5) ◽  
pp. 1181-1202
Author(s):  
Cheng Mei ◽  
Li-Wei Chou ◽  
Jaung-Geng Lin
Keyword(s):  
Demand Forecasts

scholarly journals The Effect of the Size of Traffic Analysis Zones on the Quality of Transport Demand Forecasts and Travel Assignments

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Fatih Altan ◽  
Yunus Emre Ayözen
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Traffic Analysis ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
The Public ◽  
Employment Density ◽  
Exponential Regression Model ◽  
Demand Forecasts

In this work we have studied the selection criteria for traffic analysis zones and the effects of their size and number on the model’s forecasting capabilities. To do so we have focused on the corridor of İstanbul’s Kadıköy-Kartal Metro Line and evaluated the consistency of demand forecasts and travel assignments versus actual measurements under different sizes of the Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ). Significant improvements in model accuracy were observed by decreasing the zone size. Specifically, studying the public transport network assignments for the metro line when increasing the number of traffic analysis zones from 540 to 1,788 the root mean square error (RMSE) of forecasted vs. actual station-based counts was reduced by 23%. Subsequently, the study used population density and employment density as independent variables for the determination of the optimal radius for the 1,788 zone area, and applied an exponential regression model. Appropriate model parameters were derived for the above case study. The regression model resulted in R2 values over 0.62.

scholarly journals Improving warehouse labour efficiency by intentional forecast bias

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thai Young Kim ◽  
Rommert Dekker ◽  
Christiaan Heij
Keyword(s):  
Capacity Planning ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Consumer Electronics ◽  
Demand Forecast ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Forecast Bias ◽  
Optimal Bias ◽  
Demand Forecasts

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show that intentional demand forecast bias can improve warehouse capacity planning and labour efficiency. It presents an empirical methodology to detect and implement forecast bias. Design/methodology/approach A forecast model integrates historical demand information and expert forecasts to support active bias management. A non-linear relationship between labour productivity and forecast bias is employed to optimise efficiency. The business analytic methods are illustrated by a case study in a consumer electronics warehouse, supplemented by a survey among 30 warehouses. Findings Results indicate that warehouse management systematically over-forecasts order sizes. The case study shows that optimal bias for picking and loading is 30-70 per cent with efficiency gains of 5-10 per cent, whereas the labour-intensive packing stage does not benefit from bias. The survey results confirm productivity effects of forecast bias. Research limitations/implications Warehouse managers can apply the methodology in their own situation if they systematically register demand forecasts, actual order sizes and labour productivity per warehouse stage. Application is illustrated for a single warehouse, and studies for alternative product categories and labour processes are of interest. Practical implications Intentional forecast bias can lead to smoother workflows in warehouses and thus result in higher labour efficiency. Required data include historical data on demand forecasts, order sizes and labour productivity. Implementation depends on labour hiring strategies and cost structures. Originality/value Operational data support evidence-based warehouse labour management. The case study validates earlier conceptual studies based on artificial data.

Evolution Pattern Discovery and Case Study of Logistics Companies Based on Time Series Analysis

2010 ◽  
Vol 26-28 ◽  
pp. 1099-1103
Author(s):  
Bin Yang ◽  
Xian Bing Wu ◽  
Zhi Hua Hu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Local Economic Development ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Comparison Study ◽  
Seasonal Demand ◽  
Evolution Pattern ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Logistics Enterprises ◽  
Demand Forecasts

Accurate demand forecasts are critical for logistics enterprises to improve the efficiency of their resource usage. Demand forecasts of logistics enterprises are closely related to the overall social environment, local economic development, related industries development, seasonal demand change, and the development of the enterprises. Therefore, a direct analytical model is difficult to obtain. Based on the analysis of the historical data of a typical shipping company, this paper presents a time series prediction model for logistics enterprises in the goods traffic forecasts, and through experimental analysis and comparison study, it found that the method proposed in this paper has higher prediction accuracy. Thus, the proposed model can be used to forecast the demand of the freight transport companies and has a spread value.

The Genesis and Internal Dynamics of El Salvador's People's Revolutionary Army, 1970–1976

2014 ◽  
Vol 38 (01) ◽  
pp. 102-129
Author(s):  
ALBERTO MARTÍN ÁLVAREZ ◽  
EUDALD CORTINA ORERO
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
Early Years ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Internal Dynamics ◽  
Internal Coherence ◽  
The 1960S

AbstractUsing interviews with former militants and previously unpublished documents, this article traces the genesis and internal dynamics of the Ejército Revolucionario del Pueblo (People's Revolutionary Army, ERP) in El Salvador during the early years of its existence (1970–6). This period was marked by the inability of the ERP to maintain internal coherence or any consensus on revolutionary strategy, which led to a series of splits and internal fights over control of the organisation. The evidence marshalled in this case study sheds new light on the origins of the armed Salvadorean Left and thus contributes to a wider understanding of the processes of formation and internal dynamics of armed left-wing groups that emerged from the 1960s onwards in Latin America.

Culture and the plasticity of perception

2020 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Lifshitz ◽  
T. M. Luhrmann
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Context ◽  
Sensory Experience ◽  
Cultural Learning ◽  
The World

Abstract Culture shapes our basic sensory experience of the world. This is particularly striking in the study of religion and psychosis, where we and others have shown that cultural context determines both the structure and content of hallucination-like events. The cultural shaping of hallucinations may provide a rich case-study for linking cultural learning with emerging prediction-based models of perception.

Dual systems for all: Higher-order, role-based relational reasoning as a uniquely derived feature of human cognition

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J. Povinelli ◽  
Gabrielle C. Glorioso ◽  
Shannon L. Kuznar ◽  
Mateja Pavlic
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Reasoning ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Important Case ◽  
Human Cognition ◽  
Relational Reasoning ◽  
Dual Systems ◽  
First Order ◽  
Reasoning System ◽  
Role Based

Abstract Hoerl and McCormack demonstrate that although animals possess a sophisticated temporal updating system, there is no evidence that they also possess a temporal reasoning system. This important case study is directly related to the broader claim that although animals are manifestly capable of first-order (perceptually-based) relational reasoning, they lack the capacity for higher-order, role-based relational reasoning. We argue this distinction applies to all domains of cognition.

Sociocultural memory development research drives new directions in gadgetry science

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Penny Van Bergen ◽  
John Sutton
Keyword(s):  
Episodic Memory ◽  
Autobiographical Memory ◽  
Developmental Psychology ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
Memory Development ◽  
Development Research ◽  
Cultural Research ◽  
New Directions ◽  
Cross Cultural Research

Abstract Sociocultural developmental psychology can drive new directions in gadgetry science. We use autobiographical memory, a compound capacity incorporating episodic memory, as a case study. Autobiographical memory emerges late in development, supported by interactions with parents. Intervention research highlights the causal influence of these interactions, whereas cross-cultural research demonstrates culturally determined diversity. Different patterns of inheritance are discussed.

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