Modeling and prediction of primary energy supply and electricity generation structures based on Markov chain: an insight with focus on the role of natural gas in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Hussaan Ahmad ◽  
Nasir Hayat
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Modeling And Prediction ◽  
Primary Energy Supply

scholarly journals A Comparison of α-Sutte Indicator and ARIMA Methods in Renewable Energy Forecasting in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1.6) ◽  
pp. 20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ansari Saleh Ahmar
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Energy Forecasting ◽  
Indicator Method ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Primary Energy Supply

Humans in this world are very dependent on petroleum and energy. Petroleum and other energies are a major source in supporting human life. Regarding the reduced petroleum availability, a new energy is needed to replace the role of petroleum. Nowadays, there is much renewable energy that have been discovered and used. The purpose of this research is to predict the total primary energy supply in Indonesia by using α-Sutte Indicator and ARIMA method, and comparing those four methods which are effective in predicting data. Data from the research is renewable energy (total primary energy supply) which is obtained from OECD from 1971-2015. From the research, it is found that the α-Sutte Indicator method is more suitable to predict renewable energy (total primary energy supply) data in Indonesia compared to ARIMA (0,1,0). 

scholarly journals The Economics of Renewable Energy Sources into Electricity Generation in Tanzania

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baraka Kichonge ◽  
Iddi S. N. Mkilaha ◽  
Geoffrey R. John ◽  
Sameer Hameer
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Renewable Energy Technologies ◽  
Energy Technologies ◽  
Primary Energy Supply

The study analyzes the economics of renewable energy sources into electricity generation in Tanzania. Business as usual (BAU) scenario and renewable energy (RE) scenario which enforce a mandatory penetration of renewable energy sources shares into electricity generations were analyzed. The results show total investment cost for the BAU scenario is much lower as compared to RE scenario while operating and maintenance variable costs are higher in BAU scenario. Primary energy supply in BAU scenario is higher tied with less investment costs as compared to RE scenario. Furthermore, the share of renewable energy sources in BAU scenario is insignificant as compared to RE scenario due to mandatory penetration policy imposed. Analysis concludes that there are much higher investments costs in RE scenario accompanied with less operating and variable costs and lower primary energy supply. Sensitivity analysis carried out suggests that regardless of changes in investments cost of coal and CCGT power plants, the penetration of renewable energy technologies was still insignificant. Notwithstanding the weaknesses of renewable energy technologies in terms of the associated higher investments costs, an interesting result is that it is possible to meet future electricity demand based on domestic resources including renewables.

scholarly journals Delaying future sea-level rise by storing water in Antarctica

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 203-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Frieler ◽  
M. Mengel ◽  
A. Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Ocean Water ◽  
Additional Mass ◽  
Dynamic Perspective ◽  
Primary Energy Supply ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Even if greenhouse gas emissions were stopped today, sea level would continue to rise for centuries, with the long-term sea-level commitment of a 2 °C warmer world significantly exceeding 2 m. In view of the potential implications for coastal populations and ecosystems worldwide, we investigate, from an ice-dynamic perspective, the possibility of delaying sea-level rise by pumping ocean water onto the surface of the Antarctic ice sheet. We find that due to wave propagation ice is discharged much faster back into the ocean than would be expected from a pure advection with surface velocities. The delay time depends strongly on the distance from the coastline at which the additional mass is placed and less strongly on the rate of sea-level rise that is mitigated. A millennium-scale storage of at least 80 % of the additional ice requires placing it at a distance of at least 700 km from the coastline. The pumping energy required to elevate the potential energy of ocean water to mitigate the currently observed 3 mm yr−1 will exceed 7 % of the current global primary energy supply. At the same time, the approach offers a comprehensive protection for entire coastlines particularly including regions that cannot be protected by dikes.

Safety Implications of Bridging the Energy Supply/Demand Gap in Nigeria through Associated Natural Gas Utilization

2007 ◽  
Vol 18 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 363-372
Author(s):  
Funso A. Akeredolu ◽  
Jacob A. Sonibare
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Safe Delivery ◽  
Associated Gas ◽  
Gas Utilization ◽  
Aging Infrastructure ◽  
Generation Capacity ◽  
Installed Capacity

There exists a wide energy supply/demand gap in Nigeria. The local generation of electricity meets only 31% of the demand of 10000 MW. By contrast, only 39.6% of the total installed capacity for electricity generation is achieved, owing to aging infrastructure, etc. The energy demand/supply pattern and infrastructure critically reviewed thus suggested the need to increase the electricity generation capacity. Furthermore, Nigeria flares 77% of her associated natural gas. Apart from the environmental penalties that flaring represents, in monetary terms, over the 110 years' life of Nigeria's gas reserves, a conservative estimate of the cost of the gas so-flared was $330 billion (based on $20/barrel average price of crude). It was safely inferred that the way forward in meeting the country's energy demand should include a strong element of gas utilization. In previous publications by this group, it was established that while domestic cooking could reduce the flared gas by about 5.4%, a cohesive policy on associated gas use for electricity generation could eliminate gas flaring. For domestic utilization of the associated gas, burner design and safety concerns were identified as the key challenges to overcome. The paper reports the effectiveness of odorizers in leakage detection/ prevention by the local consumers. It also discusses the issue of prevention of gas explosions. The previous cases of gas accidents were reviewed. The safety approaches proffered in the paper identified the relevant areas of research for safe delivery and consumption of natural gas in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Synergy Between the Natural Gas and RES in Enhancement of Security of Energy Supply in the Baltic Countries (Problem Statement)

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 17-31
Author(s):  
J. Savickis ◽  
N. Zeltins ◽  
L. Jansons
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Low Carbon Economy ◽  
Competitive Edge ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Carbon Economy

Abstract Although the natural gas and renewable energy sources are two significant elements of the Baltic primary energy mix both today and in foreseeable future, the competitive edge of their usage often prevails over possibilities of mutually beneficial coexistence. Universally both forms of energy are often described as key elements of a transition to a cleaner and more secure energy future (low-carbon economy), but regionally much of the current discourse considers each in isolation or concentrates on the competitive impacts of one on the other. The paper outlines several potential avenues and further research trends of synergies between the natural gas, a proven fast-reacting fossil fuel, and RES as seen from viewpoints of the Baltic energy sector sustainability and security of energy supply.

Natural Gas and the Transformation of the Energy Sector in The Netherlands / Gaz Ziemny A Transformacja Sektora Energii W Holandii

2013 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 789-804
Author(s):  
Paweł Frączek ◽  
Maciej Kaliski ◽  
Paweł Siemek
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Transition Management

Abstract The aim of this paper is to discuss the conditions for the modernization of the energy sector in the Netherlands following the discovery of natural gas deposits in the country and a rapidly growing importance of this fuel. Hence the paper presents the essence of the model of transition management in the energy sector. It also shows the nature of changes in the structure of primary energy sources in the Netherlands and the decisive factors that led to the prominent role of natural gas in this country. These considerations formed the basis for discussion on the contemporary energy policy in the Netherlands.

Beyond Malthus

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen Araújo
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Innovation Policy ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Fuel Combustion ◽  
Energy Utilization ◽  
Primary Energy Supply

This chapter explores the evolving understanding of carbon and sustainability since the 18th and 19th centuries. Relevant applications of influential ideas are then identified with respect to knowledge, innovation, policy, and meta-level change. More than 100 years ago, Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius hypothesized about the onset of ice ages and interglacial periods by considering high latitude temperature shifts (NASA Earth Observatory, n.d.). Applying an energy budget model and ideas of other scientists, like John Tyndall, Arrhenius argued that changes in trace atmospheric constituents, particularly carbon dioxide, could significantly alter the Earth’s heat budget (Arrhenius, 1896, 1897; NASA Earth Observatory, n.d.). Today, science indicates that the global, average surface temperature has continued to rise alongside the increase in greenhouse gases. Among global GHGs, CO2 emissions have increased by more than a factor of 1,000 in absolute terms since 1800. During that time, global carbon emissions found in the primary energy supply increased by roughly 6% per year (Grubler, 2008a). This growth in carbon emissions from energy is significant because CO2 from fuel combustion dominates global GHG emissions (IEA, 2015a and 2015b; IPCC, 2013). As noted earlier, 68% of the global GHGs that are attributed to human activity are linked to the energy sector; namely, fuel combustion and fugitive emissions (IEA, 2015a). Within this share, 90% consisted of CO2 (IEA, 2015a). In contrast to the rise in absolute numbers, carbon emissions per unit of output in the global primary energy supply has decreased 36% overall or by slightly less than 0.2% per year over the past two centuries (Grubler, 2008a). This subtle decarbonizing pattern in the energy mix is explained by the faster growth rate of energy use in relation to the rate of carbon emissions from that use. The delinking of energy utilization and carbon emissions occurred in part with the introduction of less carbon-intensive fossil fuel sources, like natural gas, in which a higher hydrogen-to-carbon ratio is evident (Gibbons and Gwin, 2009; Grubler, 2004, citing Marchetti, 1985).

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