Long-term trophic evolution of a northern reservoir following impoundment: different temporal response patterns of primary production and plankton biomass with a predictive model for future trends

2010 ◽  
Vol 30 (10) ◽  
pp. 1619-1624 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roy Knoechel ◽  
Doug Copeman ◽  
Christine E. Campbell
Keyword(s):  
Primary Production ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Response Patterns ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Temporal Response ◽  
Plankton Biomass

scholarly journals Ocean dinitrogen fixation and its potential effects on ocean primary production in Earth system model simulations of anthropogenic warming

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. G. J. Riche ◽  
J. R. Christian
Keyword(s):  
Primary Production ◽  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Dinitrogen Fixation ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Environmental Controls

Dinitrogen fixation (DNF) provides a large fraction of the ‘new’ nitrogen supporting upper ocean productivity, and is associated with environmental conditions likely to show substantial change under anthropogenic warming. For example, surface warming induces stronger stratification, weaker nutrient supply and more rapid nutrient depletion. Using six Earth System Models, we have examined spatial patterns and trends of DNF in the CMIP5 historical and RCP 8.5 experiments. Four models (CanESM2, CESM1-BGC, IPSL-CM5R-LR, and UVicESCM) show high DNF rates in warm, stratified waters mostly associated with the western parts of the ocean basins, while GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR show elevated rates near the eastern boundaries because of coupling of DNF and denitrification. Despite a growing body of data, the spatial pattern of DNF is still insufficiently resolved by available observations, and none of the models agrees well with the observations. Modelled and observed rates are mostly in the same general range except for UVicESCM, and frequency distributions are similar, but spatial pattern correlations are weak and in most cases not statistically significant. Only a few models show strong trends in DNF and primary production in a warming climate, and the signs of the trends are inconsistent. Observations of primary production at the benchmark subtropical station ALOHA (22.75°N, 158°W) and proxies for historical DNF from the same region appear to corroborate trends in CanESM2 that are not present in other models. However, the CanESM DNF parameterization does not include any limitation by P or Fe, so modelled future trends may not materialize due to nutrient limitation. Analysis of available models and observations suggests that our understanding of environmental controls on ocean DNF remains limited and future trends are highly uncertain. Long-term global simulations of DNF will only be meaningful if we maintain long-term observations and extend coverage to undersampled regions.

The Future of Muslim Education in the United States: An Agenda for Research

2003 ◽  
Vol 20 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 46-82
Author(s):  
Fathi Malkawi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
American Education ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Muslim Community ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Future ◽  
Muslim Education ◽  
Future Plans

This paper addresses some of the Muslim community’s concerns regarding its children’s education and reflects upon how education has shaped the position of other communities in American history. It argues that the future of Muslim education will be influenced directly by the present realities and future trends within American education in general, and, more importantly, by the well-calculated and informed short-term and long-term decisions and future plans taken by the Muslim community. The paper identifies some areas in which a wellestablished knowledge base is critical to making decisions, and calls for serious research to be undertaken to furnish this base.

Long-term primary production trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes: a comparison of geochemical methods

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Euan D. Reavie ◽  
Meijun Cai ◽  
Carsten Meyer-Jacob ◽  
John P. Smol ◽  
Josef P. Werne
Keyword(s):  
Primary Production ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
Laurentian Great Lakes

scholarly journals Development of a predictive model for integrated medical and long-term care resource consumption based on health behaviour: application of healthcare big data of patients with circulatory diseases

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomoyuki Takura ◽  
Keiko Hirano Goto ◽  
Asao Honda
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Clinical Outcomes ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Healthcare Resource ◽  
Resource Consumption ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Adherence Score

Abstract Background Medical costs and the burden associated with cardiovascular disease are on the rise. Therefore, to improve the overall economy and quality assessment of the healthcare system, we developed a predictive model of integrated healthcare resource consumption (Adherence Score for Healthcare Resource Outcome, ASHRO) that incorporates patient health behaviours, and examined its association with clinical outcomes. Methods This study used information from a large-scale database on health insurance claims, long-term care insurance, and health check-ups. Participants comprised patients who received inpatient medical care for diseases of the circulatory system (ICD-10 codes I00-I99). The predictive model used broadly defined composite adherence as the explanatory variable and medical and long-term care costs as the objective variable. Predictive models used random forest learning (AI: artificial intelligence) to adjust for predictors, and multiple regression analysis to construct ASHRO scores. The ability of discrimination and calibration of the prediction model were evaluated using the area under the curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. We compared the overall mortality of the two ASHRO 50% cut-off groups adjusted for clinical risk factors by propensity score matching over a 48-month follow-up period. Results Overall, 48,456 patients were discharged from the hospital with cardiovascular disease (mean age, 68.3 ± 9.9 years; male, 61.9%). The broad adherence score classification, adjusted as an index of the predictive model by machine learning, was an index of eight: secondary prevention, rehabilitation intensity, guidance, proportion of days covered, overlapping outpatient visits/clinical laboratory and physiological tests, medical attendance, and generic drug rate. Multiple regression analysis showed an overall coefficient of determination of 0.313 (p < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis with cut-off values of 50% and 25%/75% for medical and long-term care costs showed that the overall coefficient of determination was statistically significant (p < 0.001). The score of ASHRO was associated with the incidence of all deaths between the two 50% cut-off groups (2% vs. 7%; p < 0.001). Conclusions ASHRO accurately predicted future integrated healthcare resource consumption and was associated with clinical outcomes. It can be a valuable tool for evaluating the economic usefulness of individual adherence behaviours and optimising clinical outcomes.

RADT-05. PROSPECTIVE LONG-TERM EVALUATION OF MRI- AND CLINICAL CHANGES FOLLOWING STEREOTACTIC RADIOSURGERY FOR BRAIN METASTASES – IS REPEAT SRS A CONSEQUENCE, OR ALSO A CAUSE OF LONG-TERM SURVIVAL?

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (Supplement_6) ◽  
pp. vi41-vi42
Author(s):  
Bente Skeie ◽  
Per Øyvind Enger ◽  
Geir Olve Skeie ◽  
Jan Ingemann Heggdal
Keyword(s):  
Brain Metastases ◽  
Stereotactic Radiosurgery ◽  
Whole Brain Radiotherapy ◽  
Cancer Site ◽  
Response Patterns ◽  
Primary Cancer ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Cover Ratio ◽  
Primary Cancer Site

Abstract The use of stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases are increasing. Response assessment is challenging and the clinical significance of radiological response and retreatments are poorly defined. Ninety-seven patients with a total of 406 brain metastases were followed prospectively for 10 years or until death. Volume changes over time and clinical outcome in response to first time SRS and SRS retreatments were analyzed. Tumors grew significantly before (p = 0.004), but shrunk at 1 and 3 months (p = 0.001) following SRS. Four response-patterns of were observed; tumors either continuously reduced in size (A, 62%), pseudo-progressed (PP, B, 13%), temporarily reduced in size (C, 24%), or grew continuously (D, 2%); corresponding to 75% local control (LC) at initial SRS. Predictors for LC were primary cancer site (p = 0.001), tumor volume (p = 0.002) and target cover ratio (p = 0.005). Subsequent SRS for new lesions resulted in 94% LC (87% A) and repeat-SRS for local failures in 80% LC (57% B), predicted by higher prescribed dose, p = 0.001 and p = 0.042, respectively. Overall survival was only 4.5 months if A-response for all lesions, 13.3 months if at least one B-response, 17.1 months if retreated C- or D-response (p &lt; 0.001), (7.5 and 4.7 months if untreated). Quality of life (p = 0.003), steroid use (p = 0.019) and prior whole brain radiotherapy (p = 0.026) were predictors for survival. There are 4 response patterns to SRS predicted by tumor size, primary cancer site, target cover ratio and prescribed dose. Long-term survivors experienced a higher incidence of PP and were more often retreated for new lesions and local failures. The immune response induced by PP seems beneficial but further studies are needed.

scholarly journals Evidence for benthic-pelagic food web coupling and carbon export from California margin bamboo coral archives

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 2595-2621 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. M. Hill ◽  
C. R. Myrvold ◽  
H. J. Spero ◽  
T. P. Guilderson
Keyword(s):  
Primary Production ◽  
Deep Sea ◽  
Benthic Communities ◽  
California Current ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Nitrogen Isotope ◽  
Carbon Export ◽  
Carbon And Nitrogen ◽  
Pelagic Food Webs

Abstract. Deep-sea bamboo corals (order Gorgonacea, family Isididae) are known to record changes in water mass chemistry over decades to centuries. These corals are composed of a two-part skeleton of calcite internodes segmented by gorgonin organic nodes. We examine the spatial variability of bamboo coral organic node 13C/12C and 15N/14N from thirteen bamboo coral specimens sampled along the California margin (37–32° N; 792 to 2136 m depth). Radiocarbon analyses of the organic nodes show the presence of the anthropogenic bomb spike, indicating the corals utilize a surface-derived food source (pre-bomb D14C values of ∼ −100‰, post-bomb values to 82‰). Carbon and nitrogen isotope data from the organic nodes (13C = −15.9‰ to −19.2‰ 15N = 13.8‰ to 19.4‰) suggest selective feeding on surface-derived organic matter or zooplankton. A strong relationship between coral 15N and habitat depth indicate a potential archive of changing carbon export, with decreased 15N values reflecting reduced microbial degradation (increased carbon flux) at shallower depths. Using four multi-centennial length coral records, we interpret long-term 15N stability in the California Current. Organic node 13C values record differences in carbon isotope fractionation dictated by nearshore vs. offshore primary production. These findings imply strong coupling between primary production, pelagic food webs, and deep-sea benthic communities.

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