scholarly journals Ocean dinitrogen fixation and its potential effects on ocean primary production in Earth system model simulations of anthropogenic warming

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. G. J. Riche ◽  
J. R. Christian
Keyword(s):  
Primary Production ◽  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Dinitrogen Fixation ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Environmental Controls

Dinitrogen fixation (DNF) provides a large fraction of the ‘new’ nitrogen supporting upper ocean productivity, and is associated with environmental conditions likely to show substantial change under anthropogenic warming. For example, surface warming induces stronger stratification, weaker nutrient supply and more rapid nutrient depletion. Using six Earth System Models, we have examined spatial patterns and trends of DNF in the CMIP5 historical and RCP 8.5 experiments. Four models (CanESM2, CESM1-BGC, IPSL-CM5R-LR, and UVicESCM) show high DNF rates in warm, stratified waters mostly associated with the western parts of the ocean basins, while GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR show elevated rates near the eastern boundaries because of coupling of DNF and denitrification. Despite a growing body of data, the spatial pattern of DNF is still insufficiently resolved by available observations, and none of the models agrees well with the observations. Modelled and observed rates are mostly in the same general range except for UVicESCM, and frequency distributions are similar, but spatial pattern correlations are weak and in most cases not statistically significant. Only a few models show strong trends in DNF and primary production in a warming climate, and the signs of the trends are inconsistent. Observations of primary production at the benchmark subtropical station ALOHA (22.75°N, 158°W) and proxies for historical DNF from the same region appear to corroborate trends in CanESM2 that are not present in other models. However, the CanESM DNF parameterization does not include any limitation by P or Fe, so modelled future trends may not materialize due to nutrient limitation. Analysis of available models and observations suggests that our understanding of environmental controls on ocean DNF remains limited and future trends are highly uncertain. Long-term global simulations of DNF will only be meaningful if we maintain long-term observations and extend coverage to undersampled regions.

scholarly journals Variations in and environmental controls of primary productivity in the Amundsen Sea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianlong Feng ◽  
Delei Li ◽  
Jing Zhang ◽  
Liang Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Primary Production ◽  
Primary Productivity ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Iron Nitrate ◽  
Amundsen Sea ◽  
Dissolved Iron ◽  
Environmental Controls ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Temporal And Spatial

Abstract. The Amundsen Sea is one of the regions with the highest primary productivity in the Antarctic. To better understand the role of the Southern Ocean in the global carbon cycle and in climate regulation, a better understanding of the variations in and environmental controls of primary productivity is needed. Using cluster analysis, the Amundsen Sea was divided into nine bioregions. The biophysical differences among bioregions enhanced confidence to identify priorities and regions to study the temporal and spatial variations in primary productivity. Four nearshore bioregions with high net primary productivity or rapidly increasing rates were selected to analyze temporal and spatial variations in primary productivity in the Amundsen Sea. Due to changes in net solar radiation and sea ice, primary production had significant seasonal variation in these four bioregions. The phenology had changed at two bioregions (3 and 5), which has the third and fourth highest primary production, due to changes in the dissolved iron, nitrate, phosphate, and silicate concentrations. Annual primary production showed increasing trends in these four bioregions. The variation in primary production in the bioregion (9), which has the highest primary production, was mainly affected by variations in sea surface temperatures. In the bioregion, which has the second-highest primary production (8), the primary production was significantly positively correlated with sea surface temperature and significantly negatively correlated with sea ice thickness. The long-term changes of primary productivity in bioregions 3 and 5 were thought to be related to changes in the dissolved iron, nitrate, phosphate, and silicate concentrations, and dissolved iron was the limiting factor in these two bioregions. Bioregionalization not only disentangle multiple factors that control the spatial differences, but also disentangle limiting factors that affect the phenology, decadal and long-term changes in primary productivity.

Long term trend of increasing iron stress in Southern Ocean phytoplankton

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandy Thomalla ◽  
Thomas Ryan-Keogh ◽  
Alessandro Tagliabue ◽  
Pedro Monteiro
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Iron Stress ◽  
Temporal Scales ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Earth System Models

<p>Net primary production is a major contributor to carbon export in the Southern Ocean and supports rich marine ecosystems [Henley et al., 2020], driven in part by high macronutrient availability and summertime light levels, but ultimately constrained by seasonal changes in light and scarce supply of the essential micronutrient iron [Martin et al., 1990; Boyd, 2002; Tagliabue et al., 2016]. Although changing iron stress is a component of climate-driven trends in model projections of net primary production [Bopp et al., 2013; Laufkotter et al., 2015; Kwiatkowski et al., 2020], our confidence in the accuracy of their predictions is undermined by a lack of <em>in situ</em> constraints at appropriate spatial and temporal scales [Tagliabue et al., 2016; Tagliabue et al., 2020]. Earth System Models tend to predict increased Southern Ocean net primary production by the end of the 21st century, but are characterized by significant inter-model disagreement [Bopp et al., 2013; Kwiatkowski et al., 2020 Biogeosciences].  We show a significant multi-decadal increase in <em>in situ</em> iron stress from 1996 to 2020 that is positively correlated to the Southern Annular Mode and reflected by diminishing <em>in situ</em> net primary production over the last five years. It is not possible to directly infer Fe stress from observed concentrations, which necessitate experimental approaches (<em>in situ</em> open ocean fertilization / bottle nutrient addition experiments or proteomics). These experimental methods cannot be easily applied at appropriate spatial and temporal scales across the Southern Ocean that are required to assess trends in ecosystem status linked to climate drivers. Our novel proxy for <em>in situ</em> iron stress is based on the degree of non-photochemical quenching in relation to available light as a measurable photophysiological response to iron availability [Alderkamp et al., 2019; Schuback & Tortell, 2019; Schallenberg et al., 2020; Ryan-Keogh & Thomalla, 2020]. The proxy was able to reproduce expected variations in iron stress that occur seasonally [Boyd, 2002] and from natural and artificial fertilization [Boyd et al., 2000; Coale et al., 2004; Blain et al., 2008]. A particular strength of this iron stress proxy is that it can be retrospectively applied to data from ships and autonomous platforms with coincident measurements of fluorescence, photosynthetically active radiation and backscatter or beam attenuation to deliver a long-term time series. An iron stress trend of this magnitude in the Southern Ocean, where the primary constraint on net primary production is known to be iron limitation, is likely to have significant implications for the effectiveness of the biological carbon pump globally and may impact the trajectory of climate. The progressive <em>in situ</em> trend of increasing iron stress is however much stronger than net primary production trends from a suite of remote sensing and earth system models, indicating hitherto potential underestimation of ongoing Southern Ocean change.</p>

The Future of Muslim Education in the United States: An Agenda for Research

2003 ◽  
Vol 20 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 46-82
Author(s):  
Fathi Malkawi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
American Education ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Muslim Community ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Future ◽  
Muslim Education ◽  
Future Plans

This paper addresses some of the Muslim community’s concerns regarding its children’s education and reflects upon how education has shaped the position of other communities in American history. It argues that the future of Muslim education will be influenced directly by the present realities and future trends within American education in general, and, more importantly, by the well-calculated and informed short-term and long-term decisions and future plans taken by the Muslim community. The paper identifies some areas in which a wellestablished knowledge base is critical to making decisions, and calls for serious research to be undertaken to furnish this base.

scholarly journals Linking population size structure, heat stress and bleaching responses in a subtropical endemic coral

Coral Reefs ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liam Lachs ◽  
Brigitte Sommer ◽  
James Cant ◽  
Jessica M. Hodge ◽  
Hamish A. Malcolm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Size Structure ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Early Recovery ◽  
Size Frequency Distribution ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Community Organisation ◽  
Size Frequency ◽  
Eastern Australia

AbstractAnthropocene coral reefs are faced with increasingly severe marine heatwaves and mass coral bleaching mortality events. The ensuing demographic changes to coral assemblages can have long-term impacts on reef community organisation. Thus, understanding the dynamics of subtropical scleractinian coral populations is essential to predict their recovery or extinction post-disturbance. Here we present a 10-yr demographic assessment of a subtropical endemic coral, Pocillopora aliciae (Schmidt-Roach et al. in Zootaxa 3626:576–582, 2013) from the Solitary Islands Marine Park, eastern Australia, paired with long-term temperature records. These coral populations are regularly affected by storms, undergo seasonal thermal variability, and are increasingly impacted by severe marine heatwaves. We examined the demographic processes governing the persistence of these populations using inference from size-frequency distributions based on log-transformed planar area measurements of 7196 coral colonies. Specifically, the size-frequency distribution mean, coefficient of variation, skewness, kurtosis, and coral density were applied to describe population dynamics. Generalised Linear Mixed Effects Models were used to determine temporal trends and test demographic responses to heat stress. Temporal variation in size-frequency distributions revealed various population processes, from recruitment pulses and cohort growth, to bleaching impacts and temperature dependencies. Sporadic recruitment pulses likely support population persistence, illustrated in 2010 by strong positively skewed size-frequency distributions and the highest density of juvenile corals measured during the study. Increasing mean colony size over the following 6 yr indicates further cohort growth of these recruits. Severe heat stress in 2016 resulted in mass bleaching mortality and a 51% decline in coral density. Moderate heat stress in the following years was associated with suppressed P. aliciae recruitment and a lack of early recovery, marked by an exponential decrease of juvenile density (i.e. recruitment) with increasing heat stress. Here, population reliance on sporadic recruitment and susceptibility to heat stress underpin the vulnerability of subtropical coral assemblages to climate change.

Long-term primary production trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes: a comparison of geochemical methods

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Euan D. Reavie ◽  
Meijun Cai ◽  
Carsten Meyer-Jacob ◽  
John P. Smol ◽  
Josef P. Werne
Keyword(s):  
Primary Production ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
Laurentian Great Lakes

scholarly journals MATLAB Virtual Toolbox for Retrospective Rockfall Source Detection and Volume Estimation Using 3D Point Clouds: A Case Study of a Subalpine Molasse Cliff

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 75
Author(s):  
Dario Carrea ◽  
Antonio Abellan ◽  
Marc-Henri Derron ◽  
Neal Gauvin ◽  
Michel Jaboyedoff
Keyword(s):  
Point Cloud ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Point Clouds ◽  
Volume Estimation ◽  
Natural Phenomena ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Erosion Rates ◽  
3D Point Clouds

The use of 3D point clouds to improve the understanding of natural phenomena is currently applied in natural hazard investigations, including the quantification of rockfall activity. However, 3D point cloud treatment is typically accomplished using nondedicated (and not optimal) software. To fill this gap, we present an open-source, specific rockfall package in an object-oriented toolbox developed in the MATLAB® environment. The proposed package offers a complete and semiautomatic 3D solution that spans from extraction to identification and volume estimations of rockfall sources using state-of-the-art methods and newly implemented algorithms. To illustrate the capabilities of this package, we acquired a series of high-quality point clouds in a pilot study area referred to as the La Cornalle cliff (West Switzerland), obtained robust volume estimations at different volumetric scales, and derived rockfall magnitude–frequency distributions, which assisted in the assessment of rockfall activity and long-term erosion rates. An outcome of the case study shows the influence of the volume computation on the magnitude–frequency distribution and ensuing erosion process interpretation.

scholarly journals Cities Exacerbate Climate Warming

Urban Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Lahouari Bounoua ◽  
Kurtis Thome ◽  
Joseph Nigro
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
The Us

Urbanization is a complex land transformation not explicitly resolved within large-scale climate models. Long-term timeseries of high-resolution satellite data are essential to characterize urbanization within land surface models and to assess its contribution to surface temperature changes. The potential for additional surface warming from urbanization-induced land use change is investigated and decoupled from that due to change in climate over the continental US using a decadal timescale. We show that, aggregated over the US, the summer mean urban-induced surface temperature increased by 0.15 °C, with a warming of 0.24 °C in cities built in vegetated areas and a cooling of 0.25 °C in cities built in non-vegetated arid areas. This temperature change is comparable in magnitude to the 0.13 °C/decade global warming trend observed over the last 50 years caused by increased CO2. We also show that the effect of urban-induced change on surface temperature is felt above and beyond that of the CO2 effect. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider urbanization feedback to put a limit on the worldwide mean temperature increase.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1938) ◽  
pp. 933-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan M. Haywood ◽  
Andy Ridgwell ◽  
Daniel J. Lunt ◽  
Daniel J. Hill ◽  
Matthew J. Pound ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Sensitivity ◽  
Earth History ◽  
Scientific Papers

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race’s current grand climate experiment . This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean–atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO 2 forcing—whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate—or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO 2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO 2 ) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO 2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO 2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

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