Public versus expert knowledge and perception of climate change-induced heat wave risk: a modified mental model approach

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parnali Dhar Chowdhury ◽  
C. Emdad Haque ◽  
S. Michelle Driedger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Mental Model ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Model Approach

Climate change and infrastructure risk: Indoor heat exposure during a concurrent heat wave and blackout event in Phoenix, Arizona

Urban Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 36 ◽  
pp. 100787
Author(s):  
Brian Stone ◽  
Evan Mallen ◽  
Mayuri Rajput ◽  
Ashley Broadbent ◽  
E. Scott Krayenhoff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Exposure

scholarly journals Children’s Astronomy. Development of the Shape of the Earth Concept in Polish Children between 5 and 10 Years of Age

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 75
Author(s):  
Jan Amos Jelinek
Keyword(s):  
Mental Model ◽  
Cultural Influences ◽  
Test Results ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Spherical Earth ◽  
The Individual ◽  
High Level ◽  
Cognitive Problems ◽  
Teaching Situations ◽  
Model Approach

The Earth’s shape concept develops as consecutive cognitive problems (e.g., the location of people and trees on the spherical Earth) are gradually resolved. Establishing the order of problem solving may be important for the organisation of teaching situations. This study attempted to determine the sequence of problems to be resolved based on tasks included in the EARTH2 test. The study covered a group of 444 children between 5 and 10 years of age. It captured the order in which children solve cognitive problems on the way to constructing a science-like concept. The test results were compared with previous studies. The importance of cultural influences connected to significant differences (24%) in test results was emphasised. Attention was drawn to the problem of the consistency of the mental model approach highlighted in the literature. The analysis of the individual sets of answers provided a high level of consistency of indications referring to the same model (36%), emphasising the importance of the concept of mental models.

scholarly journals Climatic suitability predictions for the cultivation of macadamia in Malawi using climate change scenarios.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Junior Zuza ◽  
Yoseph Negusse Araya ◽  
Kadmiel Maseyk ◽  
Shonil A Bhagwat ◽  
Kaue de Sousa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Food Sources ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Crop Species ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Model Approach

Climate change is altering suitable areas of crop species worldwide, with cascading effects on people and animals reliant upon those crop species as food sources. Macadamia is one of Malawi's most important and profitable crop species. Here, we used an ensemble model approach to determine the current distribution of macadamia producing areas across Malawi in relation to climate. For future distribution of suitable areas, we used the climate outputs of 17 general circulation models (GCM's) based on two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We found that the precipitation of the driest month and isothermality were the climatic variables that strongly influenced macadamia's suitability in Malawi. These climatic requirements were fulfilled across many areas in Malawi under the current conditions. Future projections indicated that large parts of Malawi's macadamia growing regions will remain suitable for macadamia, amounting to 36,910 km2 (39.1%) and 33,511 km2 (35.5%) of land based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Of concern, suitable areas for macadamia production are predicted to shrink by −18% (17,015 km2) and −22% (20,414 km2) based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, with much of the suitability shifting northwards. Although a net loss of area suitable for macadamia is predicted, some currently unsuitable areas will become suitable in the future. Notably, suitable areas will increase in Malawi's central and northern regions, while the southern region will lose most of its suitable areas. In conclusion, our study provides critical evidence that climate change will significantly affect the macadamia sub-sector in Malawi. Therefore area-specific adaptation strategies are required to build resilience.

scholarly journals Preliminary study of indonesia capital city relocation based on disaster mitigation principle with mental model approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
pp. 06002
Author(s):  
Hanif Nur Azhar ◽  
Helmya Hilda Putri Fatima ◽  
Isna Nufussilma Tamas
Keyword(s):  
Human Activities ◽  
Mental Model ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Environmental Aspects ◽  
Social Culture ◽  
Natural Conditions ◽  
Framework Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
Model Approach

Jakarta (capital city of Indonesia) is threatened by potential disaster in the future. Furthermore, scientists predict that Jakarta will sink in 2050. Currently, northern Jakarta has sunk by 2.5 meters in a period of 10 years due to human activities along with natural conditions which causes disaster, such as land subsidence by infrastructure construction and excessively use of groundwater, poor drainage systems, and a constant sea level rise. Government of Indonesia also considers several effects of capital city relocation such as changes in the fields of economy, politics, defense, security, social, culture, and environment. This study examine environmental aspects considered in the capital city relocation, associated to disaster mitigation using a mental model approach. Environmental aspects as the main factors are from human activities which caused by decrease of natural carrying capacity and natural conditions itself that caused an increase of disaster vulnerability. Both of these aspects are elaborated to compile a study of capital city relocation based on the disaster prevention principle. The study through a mental framework model can assist the government and relevant stakeholders in the formulation of capital city relocation.Jakarta, as the capital city of Indonesia, several sectors has facing rapid growing development, particularly in the sector of trade, industry, transportation, real estate, and many others

scholarly journals Towards Lower-Carbon Indian Agricultural Development: An Experiment in Multi-criteria Mapping

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Harriss-White ◽  
Alfred Gathorne-Hardy ◽  
Gilbert Rodrigo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
System Of Rice Intensification ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Electricity Grid ◽  
Urban Rural ◽  
Rice Intensification ◽  
Lower Carbon

Agricultural development research and policy has to address climate change. Against the mainstream focus on adaptation, this article reports on public policy implications for climate change mitigation of a project measuring environmental, social and economic aspects of India’s rice economy: greenhouse gases (GHGs), energy and water; the quantity and quality of work and a systematic analysis of market and social costs and returns. A detailed life cycle assessment of GHG production generates four different kinds of technological possibilities helping the transition towards lower-carbon agriculture: rain-fed rice production (RR), System of Rice Intensification (SRI), solar pumps (SPs) and halving transmission and distribution (T&D) losses in the electricity grid. Through quantitative ranking and qualitative discursive analysis, a new method, multi-criteria mapping (MCM), is trialled in which the benefits of alternatives are evaluated by incommensurable criteria. These are costs, employment and GHGs. This experimental application crosses two languages (English and Tamil), compares participants with expert knowledge (EKs) with agrarian participants with situated knowledge (SKs), and explores the influence of identity (urban-rural, gender, and education).

scholarly journals O8B.6 Occupational heat stress due to climate change: estimating future heat wave hazards

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. A73.2-A73
Author(s):  
Matthias Otto ◽  
Tord Kjellstrom ◽  
Bruno Lemke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Occupational Health ◽  
Health Effects ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
High Heat ◽  
Temperate Climate

Exposure to extreme heat negatively affects occupational health. Heat stress indices like Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) combine temperature and humidity and allow quantifying the climatic impact on human physiology and clinical health. Multi-day periods of high heat stress (aka. heat waves) affect occupational health and productivity independently from the absolute temperature levels; e.g. well-documented heat-waves in Europe caused disruption, hospitalisations and deaths (2003 French heat wave: more than 1000 extra deaths, 15–65 years, mainly men) even though the temperatures were within the normal range of hotter countries.Climate change is likely to increase frequency and severity of periods of high heat stress. However, current global grid-cell based climate models are not designed to predict heat waves, neither in terms of severity or frequency.By analysing 37 years of historic daily heat index data from almost 5000 global weather stations and comparing them to widely used grid-cell based climate model outputs over the same period, our research explores methods to assess the frequency and intensity of heat waves as well as the associated occupational health effects at any location around the world in the future.Weather station temperature extreme values (WBGT) for the 3 hottest days in 30 years exceed the mean WBGT of the hottest month calculated from climate models in the same grid-cell by about 2 degrees in the tropics but by 10 degrees at higher latitudes in temperate climate regions.Our model based on the relationship between actual recorded periods of elevated heat-stress and grid-cell based climate projections, in combination with population and employment projections, can quantify national and regional productivity loss and health effects with greater certainty than is currently the case.

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