scholarly journals O8B.6 Occupational heat stress due to climate change: estimating future heat wave hazards

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. A73.2-A73
Author(s):  
Matthias Otto ◽  
Tord Kjellstrom ◽  
Bruno Lemke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Occupational Health ◽  
Health Effects ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
High Heat ◽  
Temperate Climate

Exposure to extreme heat negatively affects occupational health. Heat stress indices like Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) combine temperature and humidity and allow quantifying the climatic impact on human physiology and clinical health. Multi-day periods of high heat stress (aka. heat waves) affect occupational health and productivity independently from the absolute temperature levels; e.g. well-documented heat-waves in Europe caused disruption, hospitalisations and deaths (2003 French heat wave: more than 1000 extra deaths, 15–65 years, mainly men) even though the temperatures were within the normal range of hotter countries.Climate change is likely to increase frequency and severity of periods of high heat stress. However, current global grid-cell based climate models are not designed to predict heat waves, neither in terms of severity or frequency.By analysing 37 years of historic daily heat index data from almost 5000 global weather stations and comparing them to widely used grid-cell based climate model outputs over the same period, our research explores methods to assess the frequency and intensity of heat waves as well as the associated occupational health effects at any location around the world in the future.Weather station temperature extreme values (WBGT) for the 3 hottest days in 30 years exceed the mean WBGT of the hottest month calculated from climate models in the same grid-cell by about 2 degrees in the tropics but by 10 degrees at higher latitudes in temperate climate regions.Our model based on the relationship between actual recorded periods of elevated heat-stress and grid-cell based climate projections, in combination with population and employment projections, can quantify national and regional productivity loss and health effects with greater certainty than is currently the case.

The impact of extreme climatic events on pasture-based dairy systems: a review

2017 ◽  
Vol 68 (12) ◽  
pp. 1158 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Chang-Fung-Martel ◽  
M. T. Harrison ◽  
R. Rawnsley ◽  
A. P. Smith ◽  
H. Meinke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Pasture Production ◽  
Potential Productivity ◽  
Extreme Climatic Events ◽  
Dairy Systems ◽  
The Impact

Extreme climatic events such as heat waves, extreme rainfall and prolonged dry periods are a significant challenge to the productivity and profitability of dairy systems. Despite projections of more frequent extreme events, increasing temperatures and reduced precipitation, studies on the impact of these extreme climatic events on pasture-based dairy systems remain uncommon. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated Australia to be one of the most negatively impacted regions with additional studies estimating Australian production losses of around 16% in the agricultural sector and 9–19% between the present and 2050 in the south-eastern dairy regions of Australia due to climate change. Here we review the literature on the impact of climate change on pasture-based dairy systems with particular focus on extreme climatic events. We provide an insight into current methods for assessing and quantifying heat stress highlighting the impacts on pastures and animals including the associated potential productivity losses and conclude by outlining potential adaptation strategies for improving the resilience of the whole-farm systems to climate change. Adapting milking routines, calving systems and the introduction of heat stress tolerant dairy cow breeds are some proposed strategies. Changes in pasture production would also include alternative pasture species better adapted to climate extremes such as heat waves and prolonged periods of water deficit. In order to develop effective adaptation strategies we also need to focus on issues such as water availability, animal health and associated energy costs.

scholarly journals Climate Change and Occupational Health and Safety in a Temperate Climate: Potential Impacts and Research Priorities in Quebec, Canada

2013 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariane ADAM-POUPART ◽  
France LABR^|^Egrave;CHE ◽  
Audrey SMARGIASSI ◽  
Patrice DUGUAY ◽  
Marc-Antoine BUSQUE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Occupational Health ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Research Priorities ◽  
Occupational Health And Safety ◽  
Temperate Climate

scholarly journals Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 365-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh ◽  
Sjoukje Philip ◽  
Sarah Kew ◽  
Michiel van Weele ◽  
Peter Uhe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Health Effects ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Surface Cooling

Abstract. On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India – a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data). Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs), these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse, whereas decreased air pollution would decrease the impacts.

Heat Waves, Climate Change, and Economic Output

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve Miller ◽  
Kenn Chua ◽  
Jay Coggins ◽  
Hamid Mohtadi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Hot Days ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Empirical Approaches ◽  
Climate Damages

Abstract Climate change is likely to affect economies not only through warming, but also via an increase in prolonged extreme events like heat waves. However, the impacts of heat waves on economic output are not well captured by standard empirical approaches that ignore when hot days occur. Using a global dataset spanning 1979–2016, we show agricultural losses from past heat waves are up to an order of magnitude larger than suggested by standard approaches. Combining these estimates with a suite of climate models implies that by the end of the century, climate damages in agriculture may be 5–10 times larger than is predicted by a focus on mean temperature shifts alone. These findings have important implications for targeting and evaluating climate adaptation efforts.

scholarly journals Verification of Heat Stress Thresholds for a Health-Based Heat-Wave Definition

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (6) ◽  
pp. 1177-1194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Di Napoli ◽  
Florian Pappenberger ◽  
Hannah L. Cloke
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Thermal Stress ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Warning System ◽  
High Heat ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Maximum Heat

AbstractHeat waves represent a threat to human health and excess mortality is one of the associated negative effects. A health-based definition for heat waves is therefore relevant, especially for early warning purposes, and it is here investigated via the universal thermal climate index (UTCI). The UTCI is a bioclimate index elaborated via an advanced model of human thermoregulation that estimates the thermal stress induced by air temperature, wind speed, moisture, and radiation on the human physiology. Using France as a test bed, the UTCI was computed from meteorological reanalysis data to assess the thermal stress conditions associated with heat-attributable excess mortality in five cities. UTCI values at different climatological percentiles were defined and evaluated in their ability to identify periods of excess mortality (PEMs) over 24 years. Using verification metrics such as the probability of detection (POD), the false alarm ratio (FAR), and the frequency bias (FB), daily minimum and maximum heat stress levels equal to or above corresponding UTCI 95th percentiles (15° ± 2°C and 34.5° ± 1.5°C, respectively) for 3 consecutive days are demonstrated to correlate to PEMs with the highest sensitivity and specificity (0.69 ≤ POD ≤ 1, 0.19 ≤ FAR ≤ 0.46, 1 ≤ FB ≤ 1.48) than minimum, maximum, and mean heat stress level singularly and other bioclimatological percentiles. This finding confirms the detrimental effect of prolonged, unusually high heat stress at day- and nighttime and suggests the UTCI 95th percentile as a health-meaningful threshold for a potential heat-health watch warning system.

Can climate adaptation solutions fix the urban heat island? An assessment of the thermal conditions during heat waves in Vienna impacted by climate change and urban development scenarios for the mid-21st-century

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Hamer ◽  
Heidelinde Trimmel ◽  
Philipp Weihs ◽  
Stéphanie Faroux ◽  
Herbert Formayer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Heat Island ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Human Thermal Comfort ◽  
Urban Heat

<p>Climate change threatens to exacerbate existing problems in urban areas arising from the urban heat island. Furthermore, expansion of urban areas and rising urban populations will increase the numbers of people exposed to hazards in these vulnerable areas. We therefore urgently need study of these environments and in-depth assessment of potential climate adaptation measures.</p><p>We present a study of heat wave impacts across the urban landscape of Vienna for different future development pathways and for both present and future climatic conditions. We have created two different urban development scenarios that estimate potential urban sprawl and optimized development concerning future building construction in Vienna and have built a digital representation of each within the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban surface model. In addition, we select two heat waves of similar frequency of return representative for present and future conditions (following the RCP8.5 scenario) of the mid 21<sup>st</sup> century and use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate both heat wave events. We then couple the two representations urban Vienna in TEB with the WRF heat wave simulations to estimate air temperature, surface temperatures and human thermal comfort during the heat waves. We then identify and apply a set of adaptation measures within TEB to try to identify potential solutions to the problems associated with the urban heat island.</p><p>Global and regional climate change under the RCP8.5 scenario causes the future heat wave to be more severe showing an increase of daily maximum air temperature in Vienna by 7 K; the daily minimum air temperature will increase by 2-4 K. We find that changes caused by urban growth or densification mainly affect air temperature and human thermal comfort local to where new urbanisation takes place and does not occur significantly in the existing central districts.</p><p>Exploring adaptation solutions, we find that a combination of near zero-energy standards and increasing albedo of building materials on the city scale accomplishes a maximum reduction of urban canyon temperature of 0.9 K for the minima and 0.2 K for the maxima. Local scale changes of different adaption measures show that insulation of buildings alone increases the maximum wall surface temperatures by more than 10 K or the maximum mean radiant temperature (MRT) in the canyon by 5 K.  Therefore, additional adaptation to reduce MRT within the urban canyons like tree shade are needed to complement the proposed measures.</p><p>This study concludes that the rising air temperatures expected by climate change puts an unprecedented heat burden on Viennese inhabitants, which cannot easily be reduced by measures concerning buildings within the city itself. Additionally, measures such as planting trees to provide shade, regional water sensitive planning and global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to reduce temperature extremes are required.</p><p>We are now actively seeking to apply this set of tools to a wider set of cases in order to try to find effective solutions to projected warming resulting from climate change in urban areas.</p>

HEAT WAVES IN CENTRAL REGIONS OF UKRAINE UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

2018 ◽  
pp. 58-62
Author(s):  
S. Snizhko ◽  
O. Shevchenko ◽  
H. Svintsitska
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Wave Intensity ◽  
Wave Duration ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
Heat Wave Duration ◽  
Research Period

On the basis of 10 selected stations of the meteorological network heat wave episodes for Сentral regions of Ukraine in the summer months June to August in 1961–2015 have been identified. Duration, intensity and temporal variability of heat wave cases are analyzed. It is proved that the heat wave observed at the end of July – the first part of August 2010 was the longest and the most intense nearly for all stations of the Central regions of Ukraine during the research period. Keywords: heat wave, heat wave duration, heat wave intensity, climate change.

scholarly journals Heat and dehydration induced oxidative damage and antioxidant defenses following incubator heat stress and a simulated heat wave in wild caught four-striped field mice Rhabdomys dilectus

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. e0242279
Author(s):  
Paul J. Jacobs ◽  
M. K. Oosthuizen ◽  
C. Mitchell ◽  
Jonathan D. Blount ◽  
Nigel C. Bennett
Keyword(s):  
Oxidative Stress ◽  
Lipid Peroxidation ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Oxidative Damage ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Heat Exposure ◽  
Field Mice ◽  
The Brain

Heat waves are known for their disastrous mass die-off effects due to dehydration and cell damage, but little is known about the non-lethal consequences of surviving severe heat exposure. Severe heat exposure can cause oxidative stress which can have negative consequences on animal cognition, reproduction and life expectancy. We investigated the current oxidative stress experienced by a mesic mouse species, the four striped field mouse, Rhabdomys dilectus through a heat wave simulation with ad lib water and a more severe temperature exposure with minimal water. Wild four striped field mice were caught between 2017 and 2019. We predicted that wild four striped field mice in the heat wave simulation would show less susceptibility to oxidative stress as compared to a more severe heat stress which is likely to occur in the future. Oxidative stress was determined in the liver, kidney and brain using malondialdehyde (MDA) and protein carbonyl (PC) as markers for oxidative damage, and superoxide dismutase (SOD) and total antioxidant capacity (TAC) as markers of antioxidant defense. Incubator heat stress was brought about by increasing the body temperatures of animals to 39–40.8°C for 6 hours. A heat wave (one hot day, followed by a 3-day heatwave) was simulated by using temperature cycle that wild four striped field mice would experience in their local habitat (determined through weather station data using temperature and humidity), with maximal ambient temperature of 39°C. The liver and kidney demonstrated no changes in the simulated heat wave, but the liver had significantly higher SOD activity and the kidney had significantly higher lipid peroxidation in the incubator experiment. Dehydration significantly contributed to the increase of these markers, as is evident from the decrease in body mass after the experiment. The brain only showed significantly higher lipid peroxidation following the simulated heat wave with no significant changes following the incubator experiment. The significant increase in lipid peroxidation was not correlated to body mass after the experiment. The magnitude and duration of heat stress, in conjunction with dehydration, played a critical role in the oxidative stress experienced by each tissue, with the results demonstrating the importance of measuring multiple tissues to determine the physiological state of an animal. Current heat waves in this species have the potential of causing oxidative stress in the brain with future heat waves to possibly stress the kidney and liver depending on the hydration state of animals.

scholarly journals Trends in heat stress over Europe over the 20th century

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joakim Kjellsson ◽  
Nils Niebaum ◽  
Robin Pilch Kedzierski
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Using Data

<p>We investigate how European heat waves and their associated heat stress on humans have changed over the 20th century. We find that the heat stress has increased, even in regions where heat waves have not become warmer. As heat stress increases over wide areas of Europe there is also an increase in the total population affected by the heat stress. </p><p>Heat waves pose a serious health risk to humans by reducing our ability to shed heat. We have studied the occurrence and intensity of heat waves as well as a heat stress index based on simplified wet-bulb globe temperature using data from ERA-20C reanalysis 1900-2010. Over the 110 years of data we find an overall warming of the air temperatures and dew point. The 98th percentile of both air temperature has increased by more than 1.5°C over large areas of Europe. </p><p>We find an overall increase in heat wave days per year as well as an increase of air temperature during heat waves over most of Europe. As such, many densely populated areas exhibit increased heat stress during heat waves. For example, the mean heat stress during heat wave days over Paris has increased by one level, from “alert” in 1900-1930 to “caution” in 1980-2010. The fraction of the population exposed to heat waves has increased by 10%/century in central Europe and 25%/century over the Mediterranean. </p><p>We find more heat waves during 1920 - 1950, which may be related to the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variation (AMV). This suggests that the heat stress during European heat waves may also be influenced by internal climate variability, and large-ensemble model simulations may be used to disentangle the effects of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing.</p>

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