scholarly journals Fertility trends and net reproduction in Agincourt, rural South Africa, 1992—2004 1

2007 ◽  
Vol 35 (69_suppl) ◽  
pp. 68-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel L. Garenne ◽  
Stephen M. Tollman ◽  
Mark A. Collinson ◽  
Kathleen Kahn
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Modern Contraceptive ◽  
Fertility Level ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Net Reproduction ◽  
Rural South Africa

Aims: To analyse trends in fertility rates and net reproduction rates in Agincourt, a rural area of South Africa located in the former homeland of Gazankulu near the Mozambican border. Trends are analysed in the context of widely available modern contraceptive methods and increasing HIV/AIDS. Methods: A health and demographic surveillance system has been in place since 1992, covering a population of approximately 70,000 persons, with an annual census update and comprehensive recording of births and deaths. It was complemented by a retrospective study of fertility at baseline. Retrospective and prospective data were used to calculate trends in fertility, survival, and net reproduction. When possible, they were compared with data from other censuses and surveys in the same ethnic group. Results: The fertility transition has almost ended over a course of 25 years in Agincourt. The total fertility rate (TFR) averaged 6.0 in 1979 and 2.3 in 2004. Fertility declined in proportionate fashion in all age groups including adolescents in the recent period. The net reproduction rate (NRR) declined from 1.8 to 1.0 during the prospective period (1992—2004). At current rates of change in fertility and mortality, the NRR can be expected to reach 0.63 by the year 2010. Conclusions: The situation of a below-replacement fertility level is new for rural Africa, and is likely to have many demographic, economic and social implications. The population could decline in the country as a whole, and is nearly static in Agincourt because of negative migration flows balancing the small excess from natural increase.

scholarly journals Population Projection under Changing Fertility Conditions

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 86-88
Author(s):  
Tika Ram Aryal
Keyword(s):  
Birth Rate ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Population Projection ◽  
Stability Conditions ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Fertility Schedule ◽  
Gradual Change ◽  
Net Reproduction

This paper attempts to derive model for population projection under gradual change in fertility schedule on stability conditions using birth trajectory at time t for 0 < t ? a . The projected population can be obtained when the data of the rate of natural increase, net reproduction rate, age variance of the net maternity function, birth rate of the initial stable population along with its age distribution are available of the population.Journal of Institute of Science and Technology, 2014, 19(2): 86-88

scholarly journals How to “Live a Good Life”: Aging and HIV Testing in Rural South Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 709-732 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enid Schatz ◽  
Brian Houle ◽  
Sanyu A. Mojola ◽  
Nicole Angotti ◽  
Jill Williams
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Hiv Testing ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Noncommunicable Diseases ◽  
Focus Group Interviews ◽  
Rural South ◽  
Home Testing ◽  
Testing Uptake ◽  
Group Interviews ◽  
Rural South Africa

Objective: The African HIV epidemic is aging, yet HIV testing behavior studies either exclude older persons or include too few to say much about age differences. Method: Strategically combining focus group interviews (participants in 40s/50s/60s-plus age groups) and survey data from rural South Africa (where HIV prevalence peaks in the late 30s, but continues to be over 10% into the late 60s), we examine gender and life course variation, motivations, and barriers in HIV testing. Results: We find significant gender differences—Women test at higher rates at younger ages, men at older ages. Our qualitative data not only highlight recognition of testing importance but also suggest gendered motivations and perceptions of testing. Men and women report similar barriers, however, including fear of finding out their (positive) HIV status, limited confidentiality, and partner nondisclosure. Discussion: We conclude with recommendations to increase HIV testing uptake among older adults including home testing, couples testing, and HIV testing concurrently with noncommunicable diseases.

The decline in China’s fertility level: a decomposition analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 51 (6) ◽  
pp. 785-798 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quanbao Jiang ◽  
Shucai Yang ◽  
Shuzhuo Li ◽  
Marcus W. Feldman
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Fertility Level ◽  
Urban And Rural Areas ◽  
Net Reproduction ◽  
Marital Fertility Rate

AbstractMany factors have contributed to the decline in China’s fertility level. Using China’s population census data from 1990, 2000 and 2010, the present study investigates the factors causing the decline in China’s fertility rate by decomposing changes in two fertility indices: the total fertility rate (TFR) and the net reproduction rate (NRR). The change in the TFR is decomposed into the change in the marital fertility rate (MFR) and the change in the proportion of married women (PMW). Four factors contribute to the change in the NRR. The following are the main findings. A drop in the MFR caused a decrease in the TFR and the NRR between 1989 and 2000. However, the change in MFR increased TFR and NRR between 2000 and 2010. Marriage postponement caused a decline in the fertility level between 1989 and 2000 as well as between 2000 and 2010. The effect of the MFR and marriage postponement varied with age and region and also between urban and rural areas.

FERTILITY TRANSITION IN BANGLADESH: UNDERSTANDING THE ROLE OF THE PROXIMATE DETERMINANTS

2004 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 351-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. MAZHARUL ISLAM ◽  
M. ATAHARUL ISLAM ◽  
NITAI CHAKROBORTY
Keyword(s):  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Fertility Level ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Remarkable Improvement ◽  
Inhibiting Effect ◽  
Proximate Determinants ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
High Level

Bangladesh has been passing through a crucial phase of fertility transition. The level of fertility declined dramatically during the early 1990s without any remarkable improvement in socioeconomic and health status, and then remained constant at a high level of 3·3, despite the increased use of contraception. Such fertility transition can be traced to variations in one or more of the proximate or direct determinants of fertility. This paper critically analyses the fertility levels in Bangladesh with a view to exploring the possible explanations of fertility decline in the 1990s and then its stabilization. The main focus of the study is to examine the role of the major proximate determinants of fertility in bringing about the change in fertility level in Bangladesh. The data for the study come from a series of nationally representative surveys over the period of 1975 to 1999–2000. The analysis indicates that fertility has temporarily ceased to decline in recent years due to the ‘tempo’ effect of high past fertility, but in general a declining trend in fertility is underway. The analysis suggests that the fall in fertility is consistent with the underlying trends in most important proximate determinants of fertility. In recent years contraception has emerged as the highest fertility reducing factor in Bangladesh and its effect is greatest in middle and older age groups. Although until the early 1990s postpartum lactational infecundability was the most important and strongest fertility reducing factor in Bangladesh, in recent years its fertility inhibiting effect has gradually decreasing owing to the declining trend in the lactational infecundability period. The analysis reveals that although the fertility reducing effect of the marriage pattern is increasing, its effect is offset by the declining trend in the lactational infecundability period. A review of these two variables suggests that their effect cannot be raised much for prevailing socioeconomic and cultural reasons, and any future reduction in fertility in Bangladesh may be largely dependent on increased use of effective birth control methods.

scholarly journals Measures for Human Reproduction Should Be Linked to Both Men and Women

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nico Keilman ◽  
Krzysztof Tymicki ◽  
Vegard Skirbekk
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Human Reproduction ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Net Reproduction

We introduce the two-sex net reproduction rate (2SNRR) and the two-sex total fertility rate (2STFR)—two demographic indicators that reflect the number of children born, given age specific fertility and mortality of the adults. The main quality of these indicators is that they measure the childbearing behaviour of both women and men. The indicators have intuitive value, since they tell us to what extent adults are replaced by children. While the traditional net reproduction rate (NRR) describes general replacement trends among women only, the 2SNRR is an indicator of a population’s growth potential, irrespective of sex. We demonstrate the use of the indicators with data from Bejsce parish in Poland for the period 1800–1967 and with data from UN projections for China for future years. We discuss the consequences for our understanding of fertility trends when sex ratios deviate from normal levels.

The replacement of generations in Serbia in the period 1950-2000

Stanovnistvo ◽  
2001 ◽  
Vol 39 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 45-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Goran Penev
Keyword(s):  
Birth Cohort ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Regional Differences ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Demographic Analysis ◽  
Period Analysis ◽  
Net Reproduction

The article deals with the replacement of generations in Serbia, its dynamics in the second half of the 20th century, and the importance of direct determinants. It points to the major regional differences in the domain of the population reproduction among the large areas of Serbia (Central Serbia, Vojvodina, and Kosovo-Metohija). Two approaches of demographic analysis were applied: period and cohort analysis. Basic indicators, definitions, and shortcomings were presented. The results of the period analysis indicate that up until 1988 (with the exceptions of 1957 and 1981), the fertility in Serbia constantly reached a level of fertility necessary to ensure the replacement. Since 1989, the net reproduction rate has constantly been below unity. In Central Serbia and Vojvodina, the population has not been reproducing itself for more than 45 years (since 1956). The situation has been completely different in Kosovo-Metohija, where fertility has been above the level necessary to ensure reproduction during the entire second half of 20th century. The cohort analysis applied to six chosen generations (birth cohort of 1950, 1955, 1960, 1965, 1970, and 1975) indicates that in Serbia, only women born in 1960 ensured the replacement. In Central Serbia and Vojvodina, none of the studied generations succeeded in ensuring the replacement, while in Kosovo-Metohija all generations did.

scholarly journals Resource recovery from and management of wastewater in rural South Africa: Possibilities and practices

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 ◽  
pp. 101978 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masego Montwedi ◽  
Mujuru Munyaradzi ◽  
Luc Pinoy ◽  
Abhishek Dutta ◽  
David S. Ikumi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Resource Recovery ◽  
Rural South ◽  
Rural South Africa
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