Is Leave for Fathers Pronatalist? A Mixed-Methods Study of the Impact of Fathers’ Uptake of Parental Leave on Couples’ Childbearing Intentions in South Korea

While many countries with low birth rates have implemented policies incentivizing fathers to take parental leave with the anticipation that it will contribute to raising birth rates, there is scant research empirically testing whether fathers’ uptake of leave is pronatalist. Existing research is limited to a few European (mostly Nordic) countries, and it is unclear whether there exists a positive causal relationship. Using mixed methods, this paper seeks to explore the processes and mechanisms by which fathers’ uptake of parental leave impacts intentions for additional children in South Korea, a country characterized by lowest-low fertility and low but rapidly expanding uptake of leave by fathers. Results based on multinomial logistic regression models suggest that in comparison to fathers who expect to take their first leave shortly, fathers with leave experience are less likely to report couple-level intentions for another child, significantly so at parity two. Interviews of fathers with parental leave experience confirm that fathers attenuate their fertility intentions downwards in light of the difficulties of childcare during their leave. While these intentions may change further down the line and/or couples may decide to continue an unplanned pregnancy, results suggest that fathers’ parental leave has an anti- rather than pronatalist effect in South Korea. This study demonstrates that in countries with poor support for the reconciliation of employment and childcare, equalizing the gendered division of parental leave may not be sufficient to see a reversal in its fertility trends.

Pregnancy and Fertility Trends Among Female Otolaryngologists

Objective This study sought to determine childbearing patterns and decision making among female otolaryngologists. Study Design Anonymous survey. Setting An anonymous survey was sent in 2020 to female otolaryngologists identified through their membership with the American Academy of Otolaryngology–Head and Neck Surgery. Methods Data were analyzed concerning individual fertility and childbearing history, reflections regarding decision making, perceptions of workplace support, and estimations of objective childbearing potential. Results There were 398 responses. The mean age at first pregnancy was 32.3 years. Almost one-third of respondents who attempted to conceive (30.4%) were diagnosed with infertility. Of those who had their first pregnancy during training, 55% reported having substantial workplace support, as opposed to 70% of those whose first pregnancies followed completion of training ( P = .01). When asked what they would do differently in retrospect, most women with infertility (65.0%) would have attempted conception earlier; 41 (41.0%) would have used cryopreservation to extend fertility; and 14 (14.0%) would have gone into a different specialty. Conclusion Female otolaryngologist respondents have children later in life than the general population, and a substantial proportion face infertility or have regrets about family planning decisions and career decision making. Increased awareness, further investigation, and targeted programs are needed to support the growing number of female otolaryngologists who desire both a career and a family.

Sex Differences in Childlessness in Norway: Identification of Underlying Demographic Drivers

In Norway, as in many other rich countries, childlessness is more common among men than women and has also increased more among men. Over the last 15 years, the gap in childlessness between 45-year-old women and men has widened from 5.8 to 10.2 percentage points, according to national register data. In the Norwegian-born subgroup, the gap has increased by 2.4 percentage points, from 5.8 to 8.2. The goal of the study was to identify the demographic drivers of this development, using a quite simple, but original, decomposition approach. The components reflect changes in relative cohort sizes, whether the child has one native and one immigrant parent, whether the father was older than 45, and whether one of the parents already had a child, no longer lived in Norway at age 45, or was unidentified. It was found that the modestly increasing sex gap in childlessness among the Norwegian-born is largely linked to changes in cohort sizes, i.e. fertility trends. Changes in re-partnership have actually contributed weakly in the opposite direction: It has become more common especially among men to have the first child with a partner who already had a child, and thus not contribute to bringing also that person out of childlessness. The importance of the various components is different for immigrants, among whom the sex gap in childlessness has increased particularly much. This development may also reflect that especially male immigrants perhaps have children in the home country who are not included in the Norwegian register.

Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries

With historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic fertility trends have strongly influenced fertility theories. However, the period fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries, raising the question of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline and analyze the extent to which it is attributable to tempo or quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-30s. This is a reversal from the previous trend in which fertility rates in the early 30s increased relatively steadily in those countries in the period 1980–2010. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic cohort fertility will decline from 2 children for the 1970 cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected cohort fertility (below 1.6), and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower cohort fertility decline. These findings suggest that the conceptualization of the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be revised.

Demographic trends in less and least developed countries: Convergence or divergence?

Many scholars share the assumption that demographic patterns in the world are converging over time. The present study analyses the temporal trends of specific parameters of mortality and fertility—together with certain socio-economic indicators—in 95 less and least developed countries during the period 1990–2015 and discusses whether mortality and fertility trends are convergent or divergent. We apply dynamic factor analysis and cluster analysis of trajectories to macro-data from major international sources. The results show that a large number of countries have a convergent trend in mortality, but sub-Saharan African countries affected by the HIV–AIDS epidemic show non-monotonic temporal trends. Trends in fertility are delayed and unclear and depend on individual attitudes and levels of women’s empowerment. Fifty-two out of the 95 observed countries are collocated in similar mortality and fertility groups. Finally, countries at an advanced economic stage made the best improvements, while the least developed ones retained their deep pre-existing inequalities.

Fertility Trends in European Countries

This work is intended as an attempt to illustrate and compare the pattern of fertility in European countries: Belarus, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland. It deals with the analysis of fertility trends, with an emphasis on birth by parity. Using data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD) from the year 2016, it has considered the parameters of parity progression ratios (PPR), projected parity progression ratios (PPPR), age‑specific fertility rates (ASFR), age‑order specific fertility rates (AOSFR), and cumulated order‑specific fertility rates accordingly analysed. We have applied indicators known as the projected parity progression ratios to estimate trends of fertility. These offer a more detailed view of the family formation process than the traditional total fertility rate (TFR).

Family Policy in Big Cities in Terms of Demographic Transition

The paper considers the development of family policy in metropolises within the frameworks of the second demographic transition. Demographic transformations lead to the spread of vulnerability of certain categories of families with children—single-parent families, large families—as well as exacerbation of the problem of combining childbirth and employment, aff ordability, favorable environment for childbirth. The aim of the work is to analyze the peculiarities of fertility transformations in metropolitan cities of Ukraine and to identify the challenges caused by them, to consider current practices of family policy in developed European countries, to formulate conclusions on the development of family policy in Ukrainian cities. The work uses an array of statistical indicators, formed on the basis of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD Family Database), Eurostat (Eurostat). Fertility trends in metropolitan cities are studied by analyzing long time series. Correlation analysis is used to determine the importance of individual fertility factors in modern Ukraine. The study of family policy and the formation of recommendations is carried out using a historical analogy and a systematic approach. The novelty of the article lies in the confi rmation of the conformity of the transformation of fer tility in metropolises of Ukraine to European processes and formation of a vision of fami ly policy development in large metropolitan cities of Ukraine based on the study of demographic challenges and experience of family policy in Europe. In large metropolitan cities, the aging of motherhood and the spread of vulnerability of certain categories of families with children—single-parent families, large families—as well as exacerbation of the problem of combining childbirth and employment, aff ordability, favorable environment for childbirth has grown in intensity. Priority areas for the development of family policy in a metropolitan are the development of child care services, promotion of parental employment, promotion of housing, spread of gender equality.

High-to-Low (Regional) Fertility Transitions in a Peripheral European Country: The Contribution of Exploratory Time Series Analysis

Diachronic variations in demographic rates have frequently reflected social transformations and a (more or less evident) impact of sequential economic downturns. By assessing changes over time in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at the regional scale in Italy, our study investigates the long-term transition (1952–2019) characteristic of Mediterranean fertility, showing a continuous decline of births since the late 1970s and marked disparities between high- and low-fertility regions along the latitude gradient. Together with a rapid decline in the country TFR, the spatiotemporal evolution of regional fertility in Italy—illustrated through an exploratory time series statistical approach—outlines the marked divide between (wealthier) Northern regions and (economically disadvantaged) Southern regions. Non-linear fertility trends and increasing spatial heterogeneity in more recent times indicate the role of individual behaviors leveraging a generalized decline in marriage and childbearing propensity. Assuming differential responses of regional fertility to changing socioeconomic contexts, these trends are more evident in Southern Italy than in Northern Italy. Reasons at the base of such fertility patterns were extensively discussed focusing—among others—on the distinctive contribution of internal and international migrations to regional fertility rates. Based on these findings, Southern Italy, an economically disadvantaged, peripheral region in Mediterranean Europe, is taken as a paradigmatic case of demographic shrinkage—whose causes and consequences can be generalized to wider contexts in (and outside) Europe.