Think, blink or sleep on it? The impact of modes of thought on complex decision making

2009 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 707-732 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben R. Newell ◽  
Kwan Yao Wong ◽  
Jeremy C. H. Cheung ◽  
Tim Rakow

This paper examines controversial claims about the merit of “unconscious thought” for making complex decisions. In four experiments, participants were presented with complex decisions and were asked to choose the best option immediately, after a period of conscious deliberation, or after a period of distraction (said to encourage “unconscious thought processes”). In all experiments the majority of participants chose the option predicted by their own subjective attribute weighting scores, regardless of the mode of thought employed. There was little evidence for the superiority of choices made “unconsciously”, but some evidence that conscious deliberation can lead to better choices. The final experiment suggested that the task is best conceptualized as one involving “online judgement” rather than one in which decisions are made after periods of deliberation or distraction. The results suggest that we should be cautious in accepting the advice to “stop thinking” about complex decisions.

1970 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-52
Author(s):  
Draženka Levačić ◽  
Mario Pandžić ◽  
Dragan Glavaš

A complex decision is any decision which includes choosing among options with numerous describing attributes. Certain decisions are fast, often guided with automatic processes of thought, while other decisions are made much slower with careful examination of all the factors. These processes can have a significant impact on the quality of decision making. The aim of this research was to investigate the effect of automatic, conscious and unconscious thought processes in the context of decision making. Participants were psychology students aged between 19 to 28 years. First experiment investigated the role of three different thought processes on choosing a subjectively best option, as well as TTB heuristic option. The second experiment investigated metacognitive aspects of decision making, precisely, to determine the differences in feeling of rightness (FOR) as well as the tendency to change the decision, depending on the activated thought processes. Different thought processes determined the choice of the subjectively best option. In the conscious thought condition, participants chose the subjectively best option more often than in the automatic or unconscious thought condition. However, there was no difference between conditions in choosing the TTB heuristic option. The feeling of rightness was significantly higher in conscious thought condition than in automatic or unconscious thought condition, but the two latter conditions did not differ in the judgment of feeling of rightness nor did they differ in the tendency to change the decision.


2014 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Waroquier ◽  
Marlène Abadie ◽  
Olivier Klein ◽  
Axel Cleeremans

AbstractThe unconscious-thought effect occurs when distraction improves complex decision making. Recent studies suggest that this effect is more likely to occur with low- than high-demanding distraction tasks. We discuss implications of these findings for Newell & Shanks' (N&S's) claim that evidence is lacking for the intervention of unconscious processes in complex decision making.


Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dawn K Beland ◽  
Ilene Staff ◽  
Jenna Beckwith ◽  
Amre Nouh

STK-OP-1 examines transfer times for patients going to a higher level of care. Known as door in, door out or DIDO, certified stroke centers are required to report times for both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke patients transferred to a Primary or Comprehensive Stroke Center (CSC). Purpose: Barriers to time-sensitive transfer and complex decision making are common. As a result, Hartford Healthcare (HHC) began a QI initiative to measure DIDO times while introducing advanced CTP imaging and treatment in the extended window, April 2018. This project evaluates the impact on DIDO. Methods: This multi-center QI project evaluated data pre and post implementation for stroke transfers to the CSC. Pre-implementation was May 2017 to April 2018, post-implementation May 2018 to March 2019. Patient and process of care data abstracted from Epic was entered into Excel. The main analysis compared median DIDO times using Wilcoxon Ranked Sum. Results: Data were collected on hospital, stroke type/severity and treatments administered; patient demographics, and key timing variables of door in/door out, EMS and CT. While there is no universal criterion for DIDO, 60 minutes is often the ultimate goal with 90 or 120 minutes as intermediate goals. Pre and post implementation median DIDO times for all hospitals were 117 and 139 minutes (p = 0.02), for HHC hospitals 115 and 137 minutes (p = 0.027) and for non-HHC hospitals 118 and 140.5 minutes (p = 0.423). Of the pre-implementation group, 7.8% had CTP imaging prior to transfer compared with 9.3% post. Extended times post-implementation include factors such as complex decision making, patient eligibility or hospital capacity issues. A new transfer algorithm was implemented April 2019. Future analyses will correlate DIDO with patient, stroke and treatment categories to better define delays and barriers. Relevance: A JC directive to CSCs are to develop supportive relationships with referring hospitals to facilitate efficient care. As decision making becomes more complex, the process for transfer needs to improve. DIDO goals need to be realistic to prevent secondary imaging at the CSC, i.e. the tradeoff for an extra 15 or 20 minutes should translate into shorter door to puncture times. Reducing the time to treatment may help improve patient outcomes.


BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. e033277
Author(s):  
Clarabelle T Pham ◽  
Catherine L Gibb ◽  
Robert A Fitridge ◽  
Jon Karnon ◽  
Elizabeth Hoon

ObjectivePatients with comorbidities can be referred to a physician-led high-risk clinic for medical optimisation prior to elective surgery at the discretion of the surgical consultant, but the factors that influence this referral are not well understood. The aims of this study were to understand the factors that influence a surgeon’s decision to refer a patient to the clinic, and how the clinic impacts on the management of complex patients.DesignQualitative study using theoretical thematic analysis to analyse transcribed semi-structured interviews.SettingInterviews were held in either the surgical consultant’s private office or a quiet office/room in the hospital ward.ParticipantsSeven surgical consultants who were eligible to refer patients to the clinic.ResultsWhen discussing the factors that influence a referral to the clinic, all participants initially described the optimisation of comorbidities and would then discuss with examples the challenges with managing complex patients and communicating the risks involved with having surgery. When discussing the role of the clinic, two related subthemes were dominant and focused on the management of risk in complex patients. The participants valued the involvement of the clinic in the decision-making and communication of risks to the patient.ConclusionsThe integration of the high-risk clinic in this study appears to offer additional value in supporting the decision-making process for the surgical team and patient beyond the clinical outcomes. The factors that influence a surgeon’s decision to refer a patient to the clinic appear to be driven by the aim to manage the uncertainty and risk to the patient regarding surgery and it was seen as a strategy for managing difficult and complex cases.


Author(s):  
Jihye Song ◽  
Olivia B. Newton ◽  
Stephen M. Fiore ◽  
Jonathan Coad ◽  
Jared Clark ◽  
...  

Empirical evaluations of uncertainty visualizations often employ complex experimental tasks to ensure ecological validity. However, if training for such tasks is not sufficient for naïve participants, differences in performance could be due to the visualizations or to differences in task comprehension, making interpretation of findings problematic. Research has begun to assess how training is related to performance on decision-making tasks using uncertainty visualizations. This study continues this line of research by investigating how training, in general, and feedback, in particular, affect performance on a simulated resource allocation task. Additionally, we examined how this alters metacognition and workload to produce differences in cognitive efficiency. Our results suggest that, on a complex decision-making task, training plays a critical role in performance with respect to accuracy, subjective workload, and cognitive efficiency. This study has implications for improving research on complex decision making, and for designing more efficacious training interventions to assess uncertainty visualizations.


2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marlène Abadie ◽  
Laurent Waroquier

Decision-making research reports mixed findings about the best way to make complex decisions involving multiple criteria. While some researchers emphasize the importance of conscious thought to make good decisions, others encourage people to stop thinking and trust their snap judgments. Still others recommend a distracting activity prior to making a choice, assuming that unconscious processing of the decision problem occurs during distraction. We review studies comparing these three decision modes. We show that conscious deliberation helps people to make good decisions when people have in mind precise verbatim information about the exact features of each alternatives. By contrast, a distraction period is more useful when meaning-based gist representations of the alternatives are accessible. Finally, while a period of distraction or deliberation is beneficial for decision making under certain conditions, to blindly follow one’s gut feeling is never the right solution.


2008 ◽  
Vol 73 (3) ◽  
pp. 372-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnaud Rey ◽  
Ryan M. Goldstein ◽  
Pierre Perruchet

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