Utility-Based Interim Decision Rule Planning in Adaptive Population Selection Designs With Survival Endpoints

Summary Background: In order to improve the use of information contained in the medical history and physical examination in patients with suspected pulmonary embolism and a non-high probability ventilation-perfusion scan, we assessed whether a simple, quantitative decision rule could be derived for the diagnosis or exclusion of pulmonary embolism. Methods: In 140 consecutive symptomatic patients with a non- high probability ventilation-perfusion scan and an interpretable pulmonary angiogram, various clinical and lung scan items were collected prospectively and analyzed by multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis to identify the most informative combination of items. Results: The prevalence of proven pulmonary embolism in the patient population was 27.1%. A decision rule containing the presence of wheezing, previous deep venous thrombosis, recently developed or worsened cough, body temperature above 37° C and multiple defects on the perfusion scan was constructed. For the rule the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was larger than that of the prior probability of pulmonary embolism as assessed by the physician at presentation (0.76 versus 0.59; p = 0.0097). At the cut-off point with the maximal positive predictive value 2% of the patients scored positive, at the cut-off point with the maximal negative predictive value pulmonary embolism could be excluded in 16% of the patients. Conclusions: We derived a simple decision rule containing 5 easily interpretable variables for the patient population specified. The optimal use of the rule appears to be in the exclusion of pulmonary embolism. Prospective validation of this rule is indicated to confirm its clinical utility.

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Fault Detection Method with Decision Rule of Rough Set based on Qualitative Model in Building Air-conditioning System

IEEJ Transactions on Electronics Information and Systems ◽

10.1541/ieejeiss.138.1613 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 138 (12) ◽

pp. 1613-1624

Author(s):

Masaki Yumoto

Keyword(s):

Fault Detection ◽

Decision Rule ◽

Rough Set ◽

Air Conditioning ◽

Detection Method ◽

Qualitative Model ◽

Air Conditioning System

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ESTIMASI NILAI HERITABILITAS BOBOT IKAN MAS VARIETAS PUNTEN DALAM PROGRAM SELEKSI INDIVIDU

Jurnal Riset Akuakultur ◽

10.15578/jra.11.3.2016.217-223 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 217

Author(s):

Estu Nugroho ◽

Budi Setyono ◽

Mochammad Su’eb ◽

Tri Heru Prihadi

Keyword(s):

Body Weight ◽

Selection Response ◽

Base Population ◽

Breeding Programs ◽

Male And Female ◽

Body Weight Trait ◽

Population Selection ◽

Selection For ◽

Weight Trait ◽

Selection Of

Program pemuliaan ikan mas varietas Punten dilakukan dengan seleksi individu terhadap karakter bobot ikan. Pembentukan populasi dasar untuk kegiatan seleksi dilakukan dengan memijahkan secara massal induk ikan mas yang terdiri atas 20 induk betina dan 21 induk jantan yang dikoleksi dari daerah Punten, Kepanjen (delapan betina dan enam jantan), Kediri (tujuh betina dan 12 jantan), Sragen (27 betina dan 10 jantan), dan Blitar (15 betina dan 11 jantan). Larva umur 10 hari dipelihara selama empat bulan. Selanjutnya dilakukan penjarangan sebesar 50% dan benih dipelihara selama 14 bulan untuk dilakukan seleksi dengan panduan hasil sampling 250 ekor individu setiap populasi. Seleksi terhadap calon induk dilakukan saat umur 18 bulan pada populasi jantan dan betina secara terpisah dengan memilih berdasarkan 10% bobot ikan yang terbaik. Calon induk yang terseleksi kemudian dipelihara hingga matang gonad, kemudian dipilih sebanyak 150 pasang dan dipijahkan secara massal. Didapatkan respons positif dari hasil seleksi berdasarkan bobot ikan, yaitu 49,89 g atau 3,66% (populasi ikan jantan) dan 168,47 g atau 11,43% (populasi ikan betina). Nilai heritabilitas untuk bobot ikan adalah 0,238 (jantan) dan 0,505 (betina).Punten carp breeding programs were carried out by individual selection for body weight trait. The base population for selection activities were conducted by mass breeding of parent consisted of 20 female and 21 male collected from area Punten, eight female and six male (Kepanjen), seven female and 12 male (Kediri), 27 female and 10 male (Sragen), 15 female and 11 male (Blitar). Larvae 10 days old reared for four moths. Then after spacing out 50% of total harvest, the offspring reared for 14 months for selection activity based on the sampling of 250 individual each population. Selection of broodstock candidates performed since 18 months age on male and female populations separately by selecting based on 10% of fish with best body weight. Candidates selected broodstocks were then maintained until mature. In oder to produce the next generation 150 pairs were sets and held for mass spawning. The results revealed that selection response were positive, 49.89 g (3.66%) for male and 168.47 (11.43%) for female. Heritability for body weight is 0.238 (male) and 0.505 (female).

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The Multiple-Choice Sequential Decision Rule with Rejection of Unfortunate Hypotheses

Journal of Automation and Information Sciences ◽

10.1615/jautomatinfscien.v32.i10.70 ◽

2000 ◽

Vol 32 (10) ◽

pp. 52-58

Author(s):

Sergey Ya. Zhuk ◽

Vladimir I. Kovalev

Keyword(s):

Decision Rule ◽

Multiple Choice ◽

Sequential Decision

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The Evolutionary Dynamics of Decision Rule Selection

10.23943/princeton/9780691139036.003.0008 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Michael Laver ◽

Ernest Sergenti

Keyword(s):

Decision Rule ◽

Positive Feedback ◽

Party System ◽

Evolutionary Dynamics ◽

Decision Rules ◽

Past Performance ◽

Party Leaders ◽

Track Record ◽

Long Run ◽

Survival Of The Fittest

This chapter extends the survival-of-the-fittest evolutionary environment to consider the possibility that new political parties, when they first come into existence, do not pick decision rules at random but instead choose rules that have a track record of past success. This is done by adding replicator-mutator dynamics to the model, according to which the probability that each rule is selected by a new party is an evolving but noisy function of that rule's past performance. Estimating characteristic outputs when this type of positive feedback enters the dynamic model creates new methodological challenges. The simulation results show that it is very rare for one decision rule to drive out all others over the long run. While the diversity of decision rules used by party leaders is drastically reduced with such positive feedback in the party system, and while some particular decision rule is typically prominent over a certain period of time, party systems in which party leaders use different decision rules are sustained over substantial periods.

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Endogenous Parties, Interaction of Different Decision Rules

10.23943/princeton/9780691139036.003.0006 ◽

2017 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Michael Laver ◽

Ernest Sergenti

Keyword(s):

Decision Rule ◽

Decision Rules ◽

Party Competition ◽

Competitive Environment ◽

Party Leaders ◽

Robert Axelrod

This chapter attempts to develop more realistic and interesting models in which the set of competing parties is a completely endogenous output of the process of party competition. It also seeks to model party competition when different party leaders use different decision rules in the same setting by building on an approach pioneered in a different context by Robert Axelrod. This involves long-running computer “tournaments” that allow investigation of the performance and “robustness” of decision rules in an environment where any politician using any rule may encounter an opponent using either the same decision rule or some quite different rule. The chapter is most interested in how a decision rule performs against anything the competitive environment might throw against it, including agents using decision rules that are difficult to anticipate and/or comprehend.

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