scholarly journals A Socio-Technical, Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Surgical Site Infections in Ambulatory Surgery Centers

2014 ◽  
Vol 35 (S3) ◽  
pp. S133-S141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebru K. Bish ◽  
Hadi El-Amine ◽  
Laura A. Steighner ◽  
Anthony D. Slonim
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Ambulatory Surgery ◽  
Surgical Site Infections ◽  
Probabilistic Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Antibiotic Administration ◽  
Ambulatory Care Setting ◽  
Skin Preparation ◽  
Probabilistic Risk

Background.To understand how structural and process elements may affect the risk for surgical site infections (SSIs) in the ambulatory surgery center (ASC) environment, the researchers employed a tool known as socio-technical probabilistic risk assessment (ST-PRA). ST-PRA is particularly helpful for estimating risks in outcomes that are very rare, such as the risk of SSI in ASCs.Objective.Study objectives were to (1) identify the risk factors associated with SSIs resulting from procedures performed at ASCs and (2) design an intervention to mitigate the likelihood of SSIs for the most common risk factors that were identified by the ST-PRA for a particular surgical procedure.Methods.ST-PRA was used to study the SSI risk in the ASC setting. Both quantitative and qualitative data sources were utilized, and sensitivity analysis was performed to ensure the robustness of the results.Results.The event entitled “fail to protect the patient effectively” accounted for 51.9% of SSIs in the ambulatory care setting. Critical components of this event included several failure risk points related to skin preparation, antibiotic administration, staff training, proper response to glove punctures during surgery, and adherence to surgical preparation rules related to the wearing of jewelry, watches, and artificial nails. Assuming a 75% reduction in noncompliance on any combination of 2 of these 5 components, the risk for an SSI decreased from 0.0044 to between 0.0027 and 0.0035.Conclusion.An intervention that targeted the 5 major components of the major risk point was proposed, and its implications were discussed.

Applying Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Safety Risk Analysis in Aviation

2016 ◽  
pp. 321-343
Author(s):  
Poornima Balakrishna ◽  
Sherry Smith Borener ◽  
Ian Crook ◽  
Alan Durston ◽  
Mindy J. Robinson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Risk Assessment ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Subject Matter Experts ◽  
Technological Changes ◽  
National Airspace System ◽  
Assessment Techniques ◽  
Structured Approach ◽  
Probabilistic Risk

When making policy, procedural, or technological changes to a complex system that has safety implications, a key question decision makers must answer is: What are the risks to the users of the system that will result from making these changes to the system? This chapter illustrates a method to explore different facets of this question using mathematical modeling and probabilistic risk assessment techniques, with the objective of assessing the safety impact of changes to the National Airspace System that follow from the Federal Aviation Administration's next generation air traffic modernization program. The authors describe the development of an Integrated Safety Assessment Model as a structured approach to evaluating current and emerging risks in National Airspace System operations. This process addresses the previously stated risk question by combining fault tree and event sequence diagram modeling techniques, hazard identification and analysis methods, opinions from subject matter experts, and concepts from business intelligence.

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Birds Exposed to Granular Pesticides

2007 ◽  
Vol preprint (2009) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Dwayne Robert James Moore ◽  
David Fischer ◽  
Scott Teed ◽  
Sara Rodney
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Probabilistic Risk

scholarly journals Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Livestock Snow Disasters in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Ye ◽  
Weihang Liu ◽  
Peijun Shi ◽  
Yijia Li ◽  
Jidong Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Probabilistic Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Tibet Autonomous Region ◽  
Probabilistic Risk

Abstract. Understanding risk using a quantitative risk assessment offers critical information for risk-informed reduction actions, investing in building resilience, and planning for adaptation. This study develops an event-based probabilistic risk assessment model for livestock snow disasters in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) region and derives risk assessment results based on historical climate conditions (1980–2015) and present-day prevention capacity. In the model a hazard module was developed to identify/simulate individual snow disaster events based on boosted regression trees. Together with a fitted quantitative vulnerability function, and exposure derived from vegetation type and grassland carrying capacity, risk metrics based on livestock mortality and mortality rate were estimated. In our results, high risk regions include the Nyainqêntanglha Range, Tanggula Range, Bayankhar Mountains and the region between the Kailas Range and neighboring Himalayas. In these regions, annual livestock mortality rates were estimated as > 2 % and mortality was estimated as > 2 sheep unit/km2 at a return period of 1/20 a. Prefectures identified with extremely high risk included Yushu in Qinghai Province and Naqu, Shigatse, Linzhi, and Nagri in the Tibet Autonomous Region. In these prefectures, a snow disaster event with return period of 1/20 a or higher can easily claim a total loss of more than 200 000 sheep units. Our results provide a quantitative reference for preparedness and insurance solutions in reducing mortality risk. The methodology developed here can be further adapted to future climate change risk analyses and provide important information for planning climate change adaption in the QTP region.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Dietary Exposure to Chloramphenicol in Guangzhou, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (16) ◽  
pp. 8805
Author(s):  
Yanyan Wang ◽  
Weiwei Zhang ◽  
Florence Mhungu ◽  
Yuhua Zhang ◽  
Yufei Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Preschool Children ◽  
Dietary Exposure ◽  
Probabilistic Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Poultry Meat ◽  
Animal Origin ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Margin Of Exposure ◽  
Probabilistic Risk

Chloramphenicol has been used in veterinary medicine, where its residues can remain in food of animal origin, thus potentially causing adverse health effects. This facilitated the ban for its use in food-producing animals globally, but its residues have remained ubiquitous. In this study, food commodities possibly contaminated with chloramphenicol, including livestock meat, poultry, edible viscera, fish, shrimp and crab, molluscs, milk, and eggs, were collected from domestic retail shops in all the 11 districts of Guangzhou and tested for its residue. Probabilistic risk assessment model calculations for its dietary exposure, and the margin of exposure (displayed as mean values and 5th percentile to 95th percentile ranges) were performed by using @RISK software based on a Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations. The results indicated the detection of chloramphenicol in 248 out of 1454 samples (17.1%), which averaged to a level of 29.1 μg/kg. The highest average value was observed in molluscs (148.2 μg/kg, with the top value as 8196 μg/kg); meanwhile, based on the dietary structure of a typical Cantonese, pond fish, pork, and poultry meat contributed most (about 80%) to the residents’ dietary exposure to chloramphenicol. The margin of exposure for dietary chloramphenicol exposure in Guangzhou residents was 2489, which was apparently below 5000 (the borderline for judging a health risk), particularly low in preschool children (2094, suggesting an increased risk). In conclusion, the study suggests that chloramphenicol exposure in Guangzhou residents is considerable, and its relevant health hazard, especially for preschool children, is worthy of further investigation.

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