scholarly journals MUF Calculation of Indonesian 10-MWt RDE Experimental HTGR Using Combined Uncertainty Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 2048 (1) ◽  
pp. 012039
Author(s):  
Arief S. Adhi ◽  
Mohamad S.F. Husein ◽  
Pertiwi D. Winastri
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Material ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
Comprehensive Data ◽  
Nuclear Explosive ◽  
Combined Uncertainty ◽  
Explosive Device ◽  
Approximate Amount ◽  
Material Accounting

Abstract A safeguards assessment for the 10-MWt RDE Experimental HTGR needs to be established in order to fulfill the requirements needed to construct it. Methods and instruments used for the RDE’s nuclear material accounting and safeguards system are reviewed in this paper. Material unaccounted for (MUF) is calculated using the uncertainty of each method and instrument. The effectiveness of the safeguards system is examined by comparing the resulting MUF with the number of SQ ( = significant quantity, i.e. the approximate amount of nuclear material for which the possibility of manufacturing of a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded). The total uncertainty from each KMP showed a number less than 10%. The number of MUF in each KMP according to total uncertainty showed a number below 1 kg of U-235 in one inventory period (~12 months). According to the number of MUF counted, it is impossible to reach 1 SQ if the diversion done is only by taking the advantage of MUF in the measurement. The result of total uncertainty and MUF calculation showed that the safeguards system and the material measurement designed for RDE is amendable. The sets of instruments and measurements designed will give a comprehensive data of each nuclear material in the RDE. The low number of MUF in comparison with the SQ showed that the RDE has a high proliferation resistance.

Evaluation of Uncertainty of Damage Results in Experimental Modelling of Monopile Foundation Scour Protection

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minghao Wu ◽  
Jonas Arnout ◽  
Josep Molina Ruiz ◽  
Carlos Arboleda Chavez ◽  
Vasiliki Stratigaki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Type A ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Flume Experiments ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
Experimental Modelling ◽  
Wave Flume ◽  
Combined Uncertainty ◽  
Scour Protection ◽  
Uncertainty Level

Abstract The waves and currents acting near a monopile foundation will potentially lead to scour, which may affect the stability of the wind turbine. The design of scour protection against the seabed lowering around a wind turbine monopile foundation is an important issue for wind energy industries. Many laboratory tests have been carried out to investigate the relationship between the hydrodynamic conditions and the monopile foundation scour protection layer damage, and various design criteria have been proposed. However, the experimental uncertainty of the underlying test results has not been discussed in detail. In the present research, small scale wave flume experiments of a 5m diameter monopile foundation scour protection under waves combined with currents in shallow water are described. Two groups of repetitive experiments are completed under the same wave and current conditions. The erosion development of the scour protection armor layer is measured by using a laser profiler and is evaluated based on three dimensional damage numbers. Together with visualization of the damage pattern, the damage analysis discusses the erosion in different subareas and the variances of the subarea damage number. The analysis of the uncertainty of the erosion results based on two sets of repetitive tests has been carried out. Using the uncertainty analysis methodology stated in ISO GUM standard: JCGM 100-2008, the Type A uncertainty, calibration uncertainty and combined uncertainty of the experiment are evaluated separately. The Type A uncertainty gives an overall uncertainty level and it shows that higher uncertainty occurs in the regions where stronger vortices exist. The combined uncertainty is analyzed based on scour protection dynamic stability design formula. Analysis result shows that the uncertainty due to modelling is a major source of the total uncertainty. The study gives a preliminary result of uncertainty level in wave flume test of monopile scour protection and provides a reference for future experimental research.

scholarly journals Uncertainty Quantification in Application of the Enrichment Meter Principle for Nondestructive Assay of Special Nuclear Material

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Burr ◽  
Stephen Croft ◽  
Ken Jarman
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
Nuclear Material ◽  
Test Method ◽  
Assay Method ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
Nondestructive Assay ◽  
Error Bar ◽  
Mass Estimate ◽  
Gamma Spectra

Nondestructive assay (NDA) of special nuclear material (SNM) is used in nonproliferation applications, including identification of SNM at border crossings, and quantifying SNM at safeguarded facilities. No assay method is complete without “error bars,” which provide one widely used way to express confidence in assay results. NDA specialists typically partition total uncertainty into “random” and “systematic” components so that, for example, an error bar can be developed for the SNM mass estimate in one item or for the total SNM mass estimate in multiple items. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NDA has always been important, but greater rigor is needed and achievable using modern statistical methods. To this end, we describe the extent to which the guideline for expressing uncertainty in measurements (GUM) can be used for NDA. Also, we describe possible extensions to the GUM by illustrating UQ challenges in NDA that it does not address, including calibration with errors in predictors, model error, and item-specific biases. A case study is presented using gamma spectra and applying the enrichment meter principle to estimate the235U mass in an item. The case study illustrates how to update the ASTM international standard test method for application of the enrichment meter principle using gamma spectra.

scholarly journals Revisiting Statistical Aspects of Nuclear Material Accounting

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Burr ◽  
M. S. Hamada
Keyword(s):  
Process Monitoring ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Nuclear Material ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Testing Period ◽  
The Difference ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Material Accounting

Nuclear material accounting (NMA) is the only safeguards system whose benefits are routinely quantified. Process monitoring (PM) is another safeguards system that is increasingly used, and one challenge is how to quantify its benefit. This paper considers PM in the role of enabling frequent NMA, which is referred to as near-real-time accounting (NRTA). We quantify NRTA benefits using period-driven and data-driven testing. Period-driven testing makes a decision to alarm or not at fixed periods. Data-driven testing decides as the data arrives whether to alarm or continue testing. The difference between period-driven and datad-riven viewpoints is illustrated by using one-year and two-year periods. For both one-year and two-year periods, period-driven NMA using once-per-year cumulative material unaccounted for (CUMUF) testing is compared to more frequent Shewhart and joint sequential cusum testing using either MUF or standardized, independently transformed MUF (SITMUF) data. We show that the data-driven viewpoint is appropriate for NRTA and that it can be used to compare safeguards effectiveness. In addition to providing period-driven and data-driven viewpoints, new features include assessing the impact of uncertainty in the estimated covariance matrix of the MUF sequence and the impact of both random and systematic measurement errors.

Analysis of A Nuclear Material Accounting Uncertainty for ACP Spent Fuel Standards: MCNPX and ORIGEN-S Code Simulations

2008 ◽  
Vol 45 (sup5) ◽  
pp. 410-413
Author(s):  
Tae-hoon Lee ◽  
June-sik Joo ◽  
Kwang-june Park ◽  
Hee-sung Shin ◽  
Ho-dong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Material ◽  
Spent Fuel ◽  
Material Accounting
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