scholarly journals Assessing the climate change adaptation over four European cities

2021 ◽  
Vol 2069 (1) ◽  
pp. 012069
Author(s):  
Yuchen Yang ◽  
Vahid M. Nik
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Thermal Comfort ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Indoor Thermal Comfort

Abstract In recent years, climate change has been widely recognized as a potential problem. The building industry is taking a variety of actions towards sustainable development and climate change mitigation, such as retrofitting buildings. More than mitigation, it is important to account for climate change adaptation and investigate the probable risks and limits for mitigation strategies. For example, one major challenge may become achieving low energy demand without compromising indoor thermal comfort during warm seasons. This work investigates the future energy performance and indoor thermal comfort of four European cities belonging to four different climate zones in Europe; Barcelona, Koln, Brussels, and Copenhagen. An ensemble of future climate scenarios is used, including thirteen climate scenarios considering five different general circulation models (GCM) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Through simulating the energy performance of the representative buildings in each city and considering several climate scenarios, this paper provides a comprehensive picture about the energy performance and indoor thermal comfort of the buildings for near-term, medium-term, and long-term climate conditions.

scholarly journals Estimation of Watershed Hydrochemical Responses to Future Climate Changes Based on CMIP6 Scenarios in the Tianhe River (China)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 10102
Author(s):  
Jian Sha ◽  
Xue Li ◽  
Jingjing Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Hydrochemical Processes

The impacts of future climate changes on watershed hydrochemical processes were assessed based on the newest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the Tianhe River in the middle area of China. The monthly spatial downscaled outputs of General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used, and a new Python procedure was developed to batch pick up site-scale climate change information. A combined modeling approach was proposed to estimate the responses of the streamflow and Total Dissolved Nitrogen (TDN) fluxes to four climate change scenarios during four future periods. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to generate synthetic daily weather series, which were further used in the Regional Nutrient Management (ReNuMa) model for scenario analyses of watershed hydrochemical process responses. The results showed that there would be 2–3% decreases in annual streamflow by the end of this century for most scenarios except SSP 1-26. More streamflow is expected in the summer months, responding to most climate change scenarios. The annual TDN fluxes would continue to increase in the future under the uncontrolled climate scenarios, with more non-point source contributions during the high-flow periods in the summer. The intensities of the TDN flux increasing under the emission-controlled climate scenarios would be relatively moderate, with a turning point around the 2070s, indicating that positive climate policies could be effective for mitigating the impacts of future climate changes on watershed hydrochemical processes.

scholarly journals Addressing Long-Term Operational Risk Management in Port Docks under Climate Change Scenarios—A Spanish Case Study

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Álvaro Campos ◽  
José María García-Valdecasas ◽  
Rafael Molina ◽  
Carmen Castillo ◽  
Enrique Álvarez-Fanjul ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Practical Case ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Whole Process ◽  
Time Horizons

Ports are strategic hubs of the logistic chain and are likely to be exposed to natural hazard events. Variation of metocean agents derived from climate change, such as sea level rise or changes in the magnitude, frequency, duration, and direction of storms, can modify the infrastructural and operational vulnerability of port areas and activities, demanding the development of adaptation or mitigation strategies. In this context, the present paper is aimed to propose a downscaling methodology for addressing local effects at port scale. In addition, based on previously identifying and defining the Areas of Operational Interest (AOIs) inside ports, an approach towards the evaluation of operational vulnerability is offered. The whole process is applied, as a practical case, to the Port of Gijón (Spain) for different General Circulation Models (GCMs), concentration scenarios, and time horizons. The results highlight, in line with other publications, that inter-model differences are, so far, more significant than intra-model differences from dissimilar time horizons or concentration scenarios.

Assessing economic benefits of climate change on Canada's boreal forest

1989 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 463-470 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. C. Van Kooten ◽  
Louise M. Arthur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Welfare Economics ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Forest Industry ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Trading Partners

Methods developed in applied welfare economics are used to determine the economic effects of climate change on Canada's boreal forest industry. Two climate scenarios are tested, both based on general circulation models for doubled concentrations of atmospheric CO2. Under both scenarios forest productivity increases; however, benefits accrue primarily to Canada's trading partners.

scholarly journals Mid-Holocene climate change in Europe: a data-model comparison

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 499-512 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Brewer ◽  
J. Guiot ◽  
F. Torre
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Data Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Holocene Climate Change ◽  
Correct Location

Abstract. We present here a comparison between the outputs of 25 General Circulation Models run for the mid-Holocene period (6 ka BP) with a set of palaeoclimate reconstructions based on over 400 fossil pollen sequences distributed across the European continent. Three climate parameters were available (moisture availability, temperature of the coldest month and growing degree days), which were grouped together using cluster analysis to provide regions of homogenous climate change. Each model was then investigated to see if it reproduced 1) similar patterns of change and 2) the correct location of these regions. A fuzzy logic distance was used to compare the output of the model with the data, which allowed uncertainties from both the model and data to be taken into account. The models were compared by the magnitude and direction of climate change within the region as well as the spatial pattern of these changes. The majority of the models are grouped together, suggesting that they are becoming more consistent. A test against a set of zero anomalies (no climate change) shows that, although the models are unable to reproduce the exact patterns of change, they all produce the correct signs of change observed for the mid-Holocene.

scholarly journals Climatic suitability predictions for the cultivation of macadamia in Malawi using climate change scenarios.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Junior Zuza ◽  
Yoseph Negusse Araya ◽  
Kadmiel Maseyk ◽  
Shonil A Bhagwat ◽  
Kaue de Sousa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Food Sources ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Crop Species ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Model Approach

Climate change is altering suitable areas of crop species worldwide, with cascading effects on people and animals reliant upon those crop species as food sources. Macadamia is one of Malawi's most important and profitable crop species. Here, we used an ensemble model approach to determine the current distribution of macadamia producing areas across Malawi in relation to climate. For future distribution of suitable areas, we used the climate outputs of 17 general circulation models (GCM's) based on two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We found that the precipitation of the driest month and isothermality were the climatic variables that strongly influenced macadamia's suitability in Malawi. These climatic requirements were fulfilled across many areas in Malawi under the current conditions. Future projections indicated that large parts of Malawi's macadamia growing regions will remain suitable for macadamia, amounting to 36,910 km2 (39.1%) and 33,511 km2 (35.5%) of land based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Of concern, suitable areas for macadamia production are predicted to shrink by −18% (17,015 km2) and −22% (20,414 km2) based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, with much of the suitability shifting northwards. Although a net loss of area suitable for macadamia is predicted, some currently unsuitable areas will become suitable in the future. Notably, suitable areas will increase in Malawi's central and northern regions, while the southern region will lose most of its suitable areas. In conclusion, our study provides critical evidence that climate change will significantly affect the macadamia sub-sector in Malawi. Therefore area-specific adaptation strategies are required to build resilience.

Combined impact of Climate change and Land use on water quality in the mid-21st century: A modelling study for a highly industrialized stretch of Ganga River

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sneha Santy ◽  
Pradeep Mujumdar ◽  
Govindasamy Bala
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Ganga River ◽  
Quality Analysis ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Land Use Land Cover

<p>High industrial discharge, excessive agricultural activities, untreated sewage disposal make the Kanpur region one of the most contaminated stretches of the Ganga river. This study analyses water quality for the combined future climate change and land use land cover scenarios for mid-century for a 238km long Kanpur stretch of Ganga river. Climate change projections from 21 General Circulation Models for the scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 are considered and Land use Land Cover (LULC) projections are made with QGIS software. Streamflow and water temperature are modelled using the HEC-HMS model and a Water-Air temperature regression model, respectively. Water quality analysis is simulated using the QUAL2K model in terms of nine water quality parameters, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, total nitrogen, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, total phosphorus and faecal coliform. Climate change impact alone is projected to result in degraded water quality in the future. Combined climate change and LULC change may further degrade water quality, especially at the study area's critical locations. Our study will provide guidance to policymakers to safeguard the Ganga river from further pollution.</p>

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