scholarly journals Global warming and population change both heighten future risk of human displacement due to river floods

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 044026
Author(s):  
Pui Man Kam ◽  
Gabriela Aznar-Siguan ◽  
Jacob Schewe ◽  
Leonardo Milano ◽  
Justin Ginnetti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Future Risk ◽  
River Floods ◽  
Human Displacement

scholarly journals Changes in flood damage with global warming on the eastern coast of Spain

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 2855-2877 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Cortès ◽  
Marco Turco ◽  
Philip Ward ◽  
Josep A. Sánchez-Espigares ◽  
Lorenzo Alfieri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Socioeconomic Scenarios ◽  
Damage Estimates

Abstract. Flooding is one of the main natural hazards in the world and causes huge economic and human impacts. Assessing the flood damage in the Mediterranean region is of great importance, especially because of its large vulnerability to climate change. Most past floods affecting the region were caused by intense precipitation events; thus the analysis of the links between precipitation and flood damage is crucial. The main objective of this paper is to estimate changes in the probability of damaging flood events with global warming of 1.5, 2 and 3 ∘C above pre-industrial levels and taking into account different socioeconomic scenarios in two western Mediterranean regions, namely Catalonia and the Valencian Community. To do this, we analyse the relationship between heavy precipitation and flood-damage estimates from insurance datasets in those two regions. We consider an ensemble of seven regional climate model (RCM) simulations spanning the period 1976–2100 to evaluate precipitation changes and to drive a logistic model that links precipitation and flood-damage estimates, thus deriving statistics under present and future climates. Furthermore, we incorporate population projections based on five different socioeconomic scenarios. The results show a general increase in the probability of a damaging event for most of the cases and in both regions of study, with larger increments when higher warming is considered. Moreover, this increase is higher when both climate and population change are included. When population is considered, all the periods and models show a clearly higher increase in the probability of damaging events, which is statistically significant for most of the cases. Our findings highlight the need for limiting global warming as much as possible as well as the importance of including variables that consider change in both climate and socioeconomic conditions in the analysis of flood damage.

Global warming: Trends and effects

Parasitology ◽  
1993 ◽  
Vol 106 (S1) ◽  
pp. S5-S9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Crispin Tickell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Complex Problems ◽  
Human Displacement

SUMMARYAs animals we have been a remarkably successful species; but also as animals we are vulnerable to environmental, in particular climate change. Such change is accelerating as a result of human activity, and global warming may already be taking place. Although we can foresee the trends, we cannot yet be specific about the results. Change usually proceeds by steps rather than gradients. But warming would probably include new risks to human health and contribute to an increase in human displacement. Of course climate change is only one among other complex problems facing human society, but it is closely related to them all, including population increase, environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. We cannot prevent global warming but we can anticipate and mitigate some of its worst effects. Peoples and governments still need persuading of the need for action and of the magnitude of the issue at stake.

scholarly journals Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 014003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Thober ◽  
Rohini Kumar ◽  
Niko Wanders ◽  
Andreas Marx ◽  
Ming Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
High Flows ◽  
River Floods ◽  
Ensemble Projections

scholarly journals Impact of global change on future Ebola emergence and epidemic potential in Africa

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. W. Redding ◽  
P. M. Atkinson ◽  
A. A. Cunningham ◽  
G. Lo Iacono ◽  
L. M. Moses ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Zoonotic Diseases ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Major Health ◽  
Health Infrastructure ◽  
Future Risk

ABSTRACTAnimal-borne or zoonotic human diseases (e.g., SARS, Rabies) represent major health and economic burdens throughout the world, disproportionately impacting poor communities. In 2013-2016, an outbreak of the Ebola virus disease (EVD), a zoonotic disease spread from animal reservoirs caused by the Zaire Ebola virus (EBOV), infected approximately 30,000 people, causing considerable negative social and economic impacts in an unexpected geographical location(Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia). It is not known whether the spatial distribution of this outbreak and unprecedented severity was precipitated by environmental changes and, if so, which areas might be at risk in the future. To better address the major health and economic impacts of zoonotic diseases we develop a system-dynamics approach to capture the impact of future climate, land use and human population change on Ebola (EVD). We create future risk maps for affected areas and predict between a 1.75-3.2 fold increase in EVD outbreaks per year by 2070. While the best case future scenarios we test saw a reduction in the likelihood of epidemics, other future scenarios with high human population growth and low rates of socioeconomic development saw a fourfold increase in the risk of epidemics occurring and almost 50% increase in the risk of catastrophic epidemics. As well as helping to target where health infrastructure might be further developed or vaccines best deployed, our modelling framework can be used to target global interventions and forecast risk for many other zoonotic diseases.Significance StatementDespite the severe health and economic impacts of outbreaks of diseases like SARS or Zika, there has been surprisingly little progress in predicting where and when human infectious disease outbreaks will occur next. By modelling the impacts of future climate, land use and human population change on one particular disease Ebola, we develop future risk maps for the affected areas and predict 1.7-3.2 times as many human Ebola outbreaks per year by 2070, and a 50% increase in the chance that these outbreaks will become epidemics. As well as helping to target where health infrastructure might be further developed or vaccines deployed, our approach can also be used to target actions and predict risk hotspots for many other infectious diseases.

scholarly journals Climate Change, Vulnerability, Social Conflicts and Human Displacement in the Andes: The case of Huaytapallana Glacier

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Téofilo Altamirano
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Social Conflicts ◽  
Climate Change Vulnerability ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
The Andes ◽  
And Control ◽  
Involuntary Displacement ◽  
Human Displacement

The objective of this review was to identify the links between Climate Change, Vulnerability, Social Conflicts and Human Displacement in the Andes. The different factors that influence the vulnerability of people and communities are analyzed, such as the diversity of the impacts of climate change, the retreat of glaciers, the loss of biological diversity, health, agricultural production and scenarios with the presence of water scarcity. Adaptive behaviors are observed in the inhabitants of Andean communities, but they are not sufficient, because in many occasions people are forced to migrate to other cities. Five ways of responding to climate risks or hazards are suggested: 1) reduction and control of global warming, 2) adaptation to conditions resulting from climate change, 3) resistance, 4) mitigation, and 5) involuntary displacement. Finally, it concludes by stating that there is an intricate link between global warming, climate change, vulnerability and social conflicts, and that migration is a product of climate change.

scholarly journals Changes in flood damage with global warming in the east coast of Spain

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Cortès ◽  
Marco Turco ◽  
Philip Ward ◽  
Josep A. Sánchez-Espigares ◽  
Lorenzo Alfieri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Socioeconomic Scenarios ◽  
Damage Estimates

Abstract. Flooding is one of the main natural hazard in the world and causes huge economic and human impacts. Assessing the flood damage in the Mediterranean region is of great importance, especially because its large vulnerability to climate change. Most past floods affecting the region were caused by intense precipitation events, thus the analysis of the links between precipitation and flood damage is crucial. The main objective of this paper is to estimate changes in the probability of damaging flood events with a global warming of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C above preindustrial levels and taking into account different socioeconomic scenarios in two western Mediterranean regions, namely Catalonia and the Valencian Community. To do this, we analyse the relationship between heavy precipitation and flood damage estimates from insurance datasets in those two regions. We consider an ensemble of seven regional climate model simulations spanning the period 1976–2100 to evaluate precipitation changes and to drive a logistic model that links precipitation and flood damage estimates, and thus to derive statistics under present and future climates. Furthermore, we incorporate population projections based on 5 different socioeconomic scenarios. The results show a general increase in the probability of a damaging event for most of the cases and in both regions of study, with larger increments when higher warming is considered. Moreover, this increase is higher when both climate and population change are included. When population is considered, all the periods and models show a clearly higher increase in the probability of damaging events, which is statistically significant for most of the cases. Our findings highlight the need for limiting the global warming as much as possible, as well as the importance of including variables that consider change in both climate and socioeconomic conditions in the analysis of flood damage.

Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Millington ◽  
Peter M. Cox ◽  
Jonathan R. Moore ◽  
Gabriel Yvon-Durocher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Diffusion Rate ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Genetic Evolution ◽  
Rates Of Change ◽  
Rapid Climate Change ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Intraspecies Competition ◽  
High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

Global Warming

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Houghton
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming
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