scholarly journals How climate change and fire exclusion drive wildfire regimes at actionable scales

Author(s):  
Erin J. Hanan ◽  
Jianning Ren ◽  
Christina L. Tague ◽  
Crystal A. Kolden ◽  
John T. Abatzoglou ◽  
...  
Fire Ecology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah J. Flanary ◽  
Robert E. Keane

Abstract Background Projections for the future health and abundance of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) populations in western North America are dire. Not only has the species been declining due to the combined effects of fire exclusion policies, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins 1902) outbreaks, and white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola J.C. Fisch), many are predicting that climate change will amplify these effects and whitebark pine habitat may be lost in many areas. One method to evaluate the validity of future predictions is to examine current migration patterns of whitebark pine into surrounding non-forested areas. In this paper, we documented the findings of a case study surveying the encroachment of whitebark pine into adjacent lower-elevation sagebrush grasslands and higher-elevation subalpine meadows in southwestern Montana, USA. Results We found abundant evidence of whitebark pine trees (>40 trees ha−1) in sagebrush grasslands below the mature seed source, but there was no evidence of any whitebark pine regeneration in subalpine meadows above the seed-source stand. Conclusions These results are in stark contrast to the findings of statistical modeling studies that predict that whitebark pine will expand into higher-elevation areas as a response to climate change. We believe that the reason for this low-elevation encroachment may be in response to fire exclusion rather than climate change. Although observations in this case study are for a limited geographic area, they do serve to illustrate the complexity of predicting ecological responses of tree species to climate change.


2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (11) ◽  
pp. 1376-1382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianbang Gan ◽  
Adam Jarrett ◽  
Cassandra Johnson Gaither

The economic and ecological damages caused by wildfires are alarming. Because such damages are expected to increase with changes in wildfire regimes, this calls for more effective wildfire mitigation and adaptation strategies. Wildfire adaptation options for forestland owners include purchasing wildfire insurance, which provides compensation to those insured if a wildfire damages their properties. We attempt to (i) identify factors that influence the decision of family forestland owners in the southern United States to purchase wildfire insurance for their forestlands via logistic regression using landowner survey data and (ii) examine the propensity of these landowners to purchase wildfire insurance under climate change. We find that landowners are much more likely to purchase wildfire insurance if they are female or well educated or if their land is not classed as heirs’ property, has been hit by a hurricane, or has not been burned by wildfire previously. Because climate change is likely to alter future wildfire and hurricane activity in the region, more forestland owners are predicted to purchase wildfire insurance, although the magnitude of such an increase appears moderate under current market institutions. These results would be helpful for developing new wildfire insurance programs and increasing the participation of forestland owners in the wildfire insurance market.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald McKenzie ◽  
Uma Shankar ◽  
Robert E. Keane ◽  
E. Natasha Stavros ◽  
Warren E. Heilman ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher W. Swanston ◽  
Leslie A. Brandt ◽  
Patricia R. Butler-Leopold ◽  
Kimberly R. Hall ◽  
Maria K. Janowiak ◽  
...  

Forest health has never been a more urgent concern in California. A variety of forest ecosystem types have experienced extraordinary combinations of stressors and disturbances over the past century, which have resulted in significant changes to forest conditions. Current conditions are a product of multiple interacting factors, including fire exclusion, historic logging practices, increased wildland-urban-interface expansion and, more recently, the effects associated with climate change. The intersection of the factors has led to high severity fire, drought linked mortality, and pest infestation and disease in the affected forests. It’s increasingly clear that the expected effects of climate change will further impact California forest ecosystems, potentially compelling and, in some cases, forcing the application of targeted adaptation strategies and approaches in the years and decades to come.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. e62392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lluís Brotons ◽  
Núria Aquilué ◽  
Miquel de Cáceres ◽  
Marie-Josée Fortin ◽  
Andrew Fall

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 723-729
Author(s):  
Roslyn Gleadow ◽  
Jim Hanan ◽  
Alan Dorin

Food security and the sustainability of native ecosystems depends on plant-insect interactions in countless ways. Recently reported rapid and immense declines in insect numbers due to climate change, the use of pesticides and herbicides, the introduction of agricultural monocultures, and the destruction of insect native habitat, are all potential contributors to this grave situation. Some researchers are working towards a future where natural insect pollinators might be replaced with free-flying robotic bees, an ecologically problematic proposal. We argue instead that creating environments that are friendly to bees and exploring the use of other species for pollination and bio-control, particularly in non-European countries, are more ecologically sound approaches. The computer simulation of insect-plant interactions is a far more measured application of technology that may assist in managing, or averting, ‘Insect Armageddon' from both practical and ethical viewpoints.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Millington ◽  
Peter M. Cox ◽  
Jonathan R. Moore ◽  
Gabriel Yvon-Durocher

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).


2001 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Moss ◽  
James Oswald ◽  
David Baines

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