Effect of projected climate scenarios on the yields of potato crop and agronomic adaptation options as evaluated by crop growth model

Potato is the most important non-cereal crop in the world and the most prominent winter season crop in India. Growth and yield of potato crop is very much sensitive to higher temperatures and the moisture stress. Hence, the anticipated increase of temperature due to global warming and climatic variability will have anadverse impact on potato production. Keeping this in view, a research work was carried out with the objectives to assess the impact of climate change on potato production and evaluating agronomic adaptation options through a crop growth simulation model (CGSM). Field experiments were carried out to prepare the minimum dataset for calibration and validation of one CGSM, namely InfoCrop. After validation, the model was used to predict the future tuber yield of ten selected stations situated under different agroclimatic regions of the State. In the future scenario 2050, the simulated yield for mid November planted crop likely to be about 11% less than the present level of mean yield. If the crop is planted in December, the percentage of yield reduction may be around 25%.The projected yield reduction, for the stations of higher latitude, is found to be negligible. Three possible agronomic adaptation options, viz., adjustment of date of planting, increase of seed rate and varying sprout length of seed tubers, have been tried as adaptation strategies to combat the adverse effects of climate change. It is concluded that the mid-November planting and longer sprout length will be the best adaptation option. However, the enhanced seed rate is not a viable adaptation option.

Cultivating Collaborative Resilience to Social and Ecological Change: An Assessment of Adaptive Capacity, Actions, and Barriers Among Collaborative Forest Restoration Groups in the United States

Collaboration is increasingly emphasized as a tool to realize national-level policy goals in public lands management. Yet, collaborative governance regimes (CGRs) are nested within traditional bureaucracies and are affected by internal and external disruptions. The extent to which CGRs adapt and remain resilient to these disruptions remains under-explored. Here, we distill insights from an assessment of the Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program (CFLRP) projects and other CGRs. We asked (1) how do CGRs adapt to disruptions? and (2) what barriers constrained CGR resilience? Our analysis is informed by a synthesis of the literature, case examples and exemplars from focus groups, and a national CFLRP survey. CGRs demonstrated the ability to mobilize social capital, learning, resources, and flexibility to respond to disruptions. Yet authority, accountability, and capacity complicated collaborative resilience. We conclude with policy and practice recommendations to cultivate collaborative resilience moving forward. Study Implications Collaborative approaches between public lands management agencies and nongovernment organizations have become common in forest restoration. Yet collaborative progress may be affected by turnover, wildfire disturbances, or legal or policy changes. We assessed how forest collaboratives in the United States adapted to changes that affected their performance and documented the factors that constrained response. We found that forest collaboratives developed myriad strategies to adapt to these changes, although limited authority, capacity, and accountability constrain adaptation options. We offer policy and practice recommendations to overcome these constraints, increase adaptation options, and enhance the sustainability of forest collaboratives.

Identification of the most appropriate adaptation for rice and wheat in the face of climate change in eastern India

The changing climate affects natural resources that impart a negative impact on crop yield and food security. It is thus imperative to identify agro-climate wise, area-specific adaptation options to ensure food security. This study, therefore, evaluated some feasible adaptation options for two staple food grain crops, rice and wheat, in different agro-climatic regions (ACRs) of Eastern India. Alteration in transplanting date, seedling age, and fertilizer management (rate and split of fertilizer) for rice; and sowing date, fertilizer management, and deficit irrigation scheduling for wheat, are assessed as adaptation options. Crop environment and resource synthesis (DSSAT) model is used to simulate the crop yield using different plausible adaptation options to projected climate scenarios. Findings show that shifting transplanting/sowing date, and nitrogen fertilizer application at 120% of recommended nitrogen dose with four splits could be an effective adaptation for rice and wheat crops. Results also emphasize that transplanting of 18 days older seedlings may be beneficial in rice cultivation. In contrast, irrigation at a 30–40% deficit of maximum available water would sustain the wheat yield under climate change conditions. This study suggests the best combination of adaptation options under climate change conditions in diverse ACRs, which may assist agriculturists in coping with climate change.

Assessment of building damages and adaptation options under extreme flood scenarios in Shanghai

Plenty of various measures have been taken to mitigate flood losses in Shanghai over thousands of years, including the construction of sea dikes and floodwalls. However, the combined effects of intensified rainstorms, sea-level rise, land subsidence, and rapid urbanization are exacerbating extreme flood risks and potential flood losses in the fast-developing coastal city. In light of these changes, this article presents an assessment of possible exposure and damage losses of buildings in Shanghai (including residential, commercial, workplace, and industrial buildings). Based on extreme flood scenarios caused by storm surges, precipitation, and fluvial floods, current flood-defence standards will soon be overtaken. Further analyses show that the inundation area could reach 9 %, 16 %, 24 %, and 49 % of Shanghai (excluding the area of islands) under the 1/200, 1/500, 1/1000, and 1/5000-year flooding scenarios, respectively. This study finds, in terms of the total building damage, the 1/5000-year flood scenario damage is more than ten times the 1/200-year flood scenario. Accordingly, the average annual loss (AAL) of residential, commercial, office, and industrial buildings are 13.9, 2.3, 5.3, and 3.9 million USD. Specifically, among the 15 (non-island) districts in Shanghai, Pudong has the highest exposure and AAL at all the four flood scenarios, while the inner city (including seven districts) is also subject to extreme AAL of up to 40 % of its total building values. This study further addresses the possibilities of these extreme flood scenarios, and adaptation options such as: strategic urban planning, advanced building protections, and systematic flood management. Conclusions of the study provide information for scenario-based decision making and cost-benefit analysis for extreme flood risk management in Shanghai and is applicable to other similar coastal megacities.

Forest succession, management and the economy under a changing climate: coupling economic and forest management models to assess impacts and adaptation options

Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on forests by affecting the successional dynamics of tree species and the performance of plantations, among others. Research is needed to better understand how these factors will affect forests and economies in different regions, and how we can best adapt. To shed some light on these issues, we couple an economic (Computable General Equilibrium) model with a forest management (Woodstock) model to analyze the potential climate change impacts and adaptation options on timber supply and the economy over the 2015-95 period in a case-study province of New Brunswick, Canada. We estimate that climate change may have relatively large negative impacts on softwood timber supply (at 26% by 2095), softwood forestry & logging sector output quantity (at 12% by 2095), and softwood-dependent forestry manufacturing sector output (ranging from 6% to 27% by 2095). Negative impacts on GDP may be relatively smaller (at up to a 0.33% reduction by 2095). Adapting to these climate-related changes by planting drought-resistant softwood seedlings or hardwood seedlings in place of failed softwood plantations can reduce these negative impacts. While the former adaptation option is supported using cost-benefit analysis, the latter is not – due to the large incremental costs of growing, planting, and tending hardwood seedlings. Methods developed in this study can be applied in other regions to help guide decision-making around forest management in the face of a changing climate.

Managed Retreat Components and Costing in a Coastal Setting

<p>Climate change impacts are beginning to be felt across the world. Therefore, the development and understanding of adaptation options is becoming more important. Sea-level rise and its associated impacts are predicted to continue and accelerate well into the next century. As such, it is important that adaptation options which reduce risks associated with sea-level rise are developed and are well understood. Managed retreat is one such option. While research on managed retreat is increasing, there is a lack of literature that identifies what managed retreat comprises, how to plan and stage the option over time, and how to cost it as an adaptation option. This thesis aims to address this gap in the literature by answering the following three questions: (1) what are the issues related to implementing managed retreat as an adaptation strategy in coastal areas, now, and moving into the future?; (2) what are the components of managed retreat?; and (3) what framework could be developed for costing managed retreat? A qualitative ‘desk-top’ approach was taken to deconstruct the components of managed retreat across space and time and to develop a framework for costing the components as part of an adaptation strategy. An in-depth analysis of literature, enabled an understanding of managed retreat implementation, and also informed the development of a component typology and costing framework for the adaptation option. The typology and framework were then tested for relevance and utility for decision making through a series of semi-structured discussions with key informants working in climate change adaptation. Using the component typology and costing framework, a new approach is presented for staging and costing managed retreat, over time and in different contexts. The typology and framework contribute knowledge and guidance for local governments and infrastructure agencies when discussing managed retreat with their communities, for identifying and staging managed retreat, and for the costing of components. It does this by presenting components in stages as overlapping and parallel pathways, providing groupings of components according to types of costs, and identifying appropriate costing methodologies that enable the implementation of managed retreat. To conclude, the thesis suggests areas for future research on managed retreat.</p>

Managed Retreat Components and Costing in a Coastal Setting

<p>Climate change impacts are beginning to be felt across the world. Therefore, the development and understanding of adaptation options is becoming more important. Sea-level rise and its associated impacts are predicted to continue and accelerate well into the next century. As such, it is important that adaptation options which reduce risks associated with sea-level rise are developed and are well understood. Managed retreat is one such option. While research on managed retreat is increasing, there is a lack of literature that identifies what managed retreat comprises, how to plan and stage the option over time, and how to cost it as an adaptation option. This thesis aims to address this gap in the literature by answering the following three questions: (1) what are the issues related to implementing managed retreat as an adaptation strategy in coastal areas, now, and moving into the future?; (2) what are the components of managed retreat?; and (3) what framework could be developed for costing managed retreat? A qualitative ‘desk-top’ approach was taken to deconstruct the components of managed retreat across space and time and to develop a framework for costing the components as part of an adaptation strategy. An in-depth analysis of literature, enabled an understanding of managed retreat implementation, and also informed the development of a component typology and costing framework for the adaptation option. The typology and framework were then tested for relevance and utility for decision making through a series of semi-structured discussions with key informants working in climate change adaptation. Using the component typology and costing framework, a new approach is presented for staging and costing managed retreat, over time and in different contexts. The typology and framework contribute knowledge and guidance for local governments and infrastructure agencies when discussing managed retreat with their communities, for identifying and staging managed retreat, and for the costing of components. It does this by presenting components in stages as overlapping and parallel pathways, providing groupings of components according to types of costs, and identifying appropriate costing methodologies that enable the implementation of managed retreat. To conclude, the thesis suggests areas for future research on managed retreat.</p>

The challenge of setting ‘climate ready’ ecological targets for environmental flow planning

Implementing environmental flows has emerged as a major restoration tool for addressing the impacts of hydrologic alteration in large river systems. The ‘natural flow paradigm’ has been a central guiding principle for determining important ecohydrological relationships. Yet, climate change and associated changes in rainfall run off relationships, seasonality of flows, disruptions to food webs and species life cycle cues mean these existing relationships will, in many circumstances, become obsolete. Revised thinking around setting ecological objectives is required to ensure restoration targets are achievable, particularly in regions where water scarcity is predicted to increase. Through this lens ‘climate ready’ targets are those that are robust to changing water availability or incorporate future adaptation options. Future objective setting should be based around the inclusion of changing climate and water availability, and the associated species and ecosystem vulnerabilities, and expected outcomes under different policy and adaptation options. This paper uses south eastern Australia as a case study region to review the extent to which current water management plans include climate considerations and adaptation in objective setting. Results show untested climate adaptation inclusions, and a general lack of acknowledgement of changing hydrological and ecological conditions in existing management plans. In response this paper presents a process for setting objectives so they can be considered ‘climate ready’.

Robust Climate Change Adaptation for Environmental Flows in the Goulburn River, Australia

Climate change presents severe risks for the implementation and success of environmental flows worldwide. Current environmental flow assessments tend to assume climate stationarity, so there is an urgent need for robust environmental flow programs that allow adaptation to changing flow regimes due to climate change. Designing and implementing robust environmental flow programs means ensuring environmental objectives are achieved under a range of uncertain, but plausible climate futures. We apply stress testing concepts previously adopted in water supply management to environmental flows at a catchment scale. We do this by exploring vulnerabilities in different river management metrics for current environmental flow arrangements in the Goulburn River, Australia, under non-stationary climatic conditions. Given the limitations of current environmental flows in supporting ecological outcomes under climate change, we tested three different adaptation options individually and in combination. Stress testing adaptation results showed that increasing environmental entitlements yielded the largest benefits in drier climate futures, whereas relaxing river capacity constraints (allowing more targeted delivery of environmental water) offered more benefits for current and wetter climates. Combining both these options led to greater than additive improvements in allocation reliability and reductions in environmental water shortfalls, and these improvements were achieved across a wider range of climatic conditions than possible with either of the individual options. However, adaptation may present additional risks to some ecological outcomes for wetter climates. Ultimately, there was a degree of plausible climate change beyond which none of the adaptation options considered were effective at improving ecological outcomes. This study demonstrates an important step for environmental flow assessments: evaluating the feasibility of environmental outcomes under climate change, and the intervention options that prove most robust under an uncertain future.

Rural Adaptation to Climate Change: New Findings and Existing Knowledge

This paper discusses the results of new research at the farm level regarding farmers’ responses to climate change. These results are placed in the context of existing literature. The topics include the benefits of adaptation, the forms of adaptation, and the drivers of adaptation such as land tenure, water allocation systems, the operation of labor markets, and the extent of social capital. Moreover, this paper examines farmers’ responses to market signals as they consider adaptation options and the connections of these options with infrastructure quality. It also reviews policy options that support adaptation.