Using public participation within land use change scenarios for analysing environmental and socioeconomic drivers

Environmental Research Letters ◽

10.1088/1748-9326/ac4764 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jessica Penny ◽

Slobodan Djordjević ◽

Albert S Chen

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Public Participation ◽

Sustainable Land Use ◽

Baseline Scenario ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

The Public ◽

Field Crops ◽

Socioeconomic Drivers

Abstract This paper aims to improve the understanding of environmental and socioeconomic drivers on land use change (LUC) through public participation (PP), and provide recommendations for long-term policy making to support sustainable land use management. Public participation (PP) was necessary to help understand and address the problem and concerns of stakeholders within the study area. Through two collaboration workshops seven individual future land use scenarios were created. Using the FLUS (Future land use simulation) model, land use was projected up till 2060, after which logistic regression analysis took place to find the most significant driver. Results found that LUC within the baseline scenario and the ones chosen by stakeholders were very different, however concluded that Paddy field extent would decrease in the future to be replaced by more drought resilient agriculture; Perennials & Orchards and Field Crops. Outcomes from future scenarios propose that future LUC was driven by environment spatial factors such as elevation and climate, not soil suitability. With, first hand interviews suggesting it is indirect external factors such as, crop price that drive LUC. Overall the study provides steps towards dynamic LUC modelling where future scenarios have been tailored to details specified by the public through their participation.

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Future scenarios impact on land use change and habitat quality in Lithuania

Environmental Research ◽

10.1016/j.envres.2021.111101 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 111101

Author(s):

Eduardo Gomes ◽

Miguel Inácio ◽

Katažyna Bogdzevič ◽

Marius Kalinauskas ◽

Donalda Karnauskaitė ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Habitat Quality ◽

Future Scenarios

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The projected impacts of smart decline on urban runoff contamination levels

Computational Urban Science ◽

10.1007/s43762-021-00002-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Rui Zhu ◽

Galen Newman

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Green Infrastructure ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Stormwater Runoff ◽

Baseline Scenario ◽

Vacant Land ◽

Smart Decline ◽

Contamination Levels ◽

Indirect Impacts

AbstractThere has been mounting interest about how the repurposing of vacant land (VL) through green infrastructure (the most common smart decline strategy) can reduce stormwater runoff and improve runoff quality, especially in legacy cities characterized by excessive industrial land uses and VL amounts. This research examines the long-term impacts of smart decline on both stormwater amounts and pollutants loads through integrating land use prediction models with green infrastructure performance models. Using the City of St. Louis, Missouri, USA as the study area, we simulate 2025 land use change using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE-S) and Markov Chain urban land use prediction models and assess these change’s probable impacts on urban contamination levels under different smart decline scenarios using the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) performance model. The four different scenarios are: (1) a baseline scenario, (2) a 10% vacant land re-greening (VLRG) scenario, (3) a 20% VLRG scenario, and (4) a 30% VLRG scenario. The results of this study illustrate that smart decline VLRG strategies can have both direct and indirect impacts on urban stormwater runoff and their inherent contamination levels. Direct impacts on urban contamination include the reduction of stormwater runoff and non-point source (NPS) pollutants. In the 30% VLRG scenario, the annual runoff volume decreases by 11%, both physical, chemical, and bacterial pollutants are reduced by an average of 19%, compared to the baseline scenario. Indirect impacts include reduction of the possibility of illegal dumping on VL through mitigation and prevention of future vacancies.

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The Influence of Land Use Change on Key Ecosystem Services and Their Relationships in a Mountain Region from Past to Future (1995–2050)

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12050616 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (5) ◽

pp. 616

Author(s):

Jie Gao ◽

Xuguang Tang ◽

Shiqiu Lin ◽

Hongyan Bian

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Sustainable Land Use ◽

Mountain Region ◽

Water Yield ◽

Mountain Regions ◽

Mountain Areas ◽

The Government ◽

Steep Slopes

The ecosystem services (ESs) provided by mountain regions can bring about benefits to people living in and around the mountains. Ecosystems in mountain areas are fragile and sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance. Understanding the effect of land use change on ESs and their relationships can lead to sustainable land use management in mountain regions with complex topography. Chongqing, as a typical mountain region, was selected as the site of this research. The long-term impacts of land use change on four key ESs (i.e., water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon storage (CS), and habitat quality (HQ)) and their relationships were assessed from the past to the future (at five-year intervals, 1995–2050). Three future scenarios were constructed to represent the ecological restoration policy and different socioeconomic developments. From 1995 to 2015, WY and SC experienced overall increases. CS and HQ increased slightly at first and then decreased significantly. A scenario analysis suggested that, if the urban area continues to increase at low altitudes, by 2050, CS and HQ are predicted to decrease moderately. However, great improvements in SC, HQ, and CS are expected to be achieved by the middle of the century if the government continues to make efforts towards vegetation restoration on the steep slopes.

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CH4and N2O fluxes in the Colorado shortgrass steppe: 2. Long-term impact of land use change

Global Biogeochemical Cycles ◽

10.1029/96gb03612 ◽

1997 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 29-42 ◽

Cited By ~ 97

Author(s):

A. R. Mosier ◽

W. J. Parton ◽

D. W. Valentine ◽

D. S. Ojima ◽

D. S. Schimel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Shortgrass Steppe ◽

N2o Fluxes ◽

Long Term Impact

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The Effects of Long‐Term Land‐Use Change on Soil Properties in Perth, Ontario Canada

Inquiry@Queen's Undergraduate Research Conference Proceedings ◽

10.24908/iqurcp.8271 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Trina Stephens

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Organic Matter ◽

North America ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Soil Properties ◽

Carbon Storage ◽

Organic Matter Content ◽

Matter Content ◽

Topographic Gradients

Land‐use change can have a major impact on soil properties, leading to long‐term changes in soilnutrient cycling rates and carbon storage. While a substantial amount of research has been conducted onland‐use change in tropical regions, empirical evidence of long‐term conversion of forested land toagricultural land in North America is lacking. Pervasive deforestation for the sake of agriculturethroughout much of North America is likely to have modified soil properties, with implications for theglobal climate. Here, we examined the response of physical, chemical and biological soil properties toconversion of forest to agricultural land (100 years ago) on Roebuck Farm near Perth, Ontario, Canada.Soil samples were collected at three sites from under forest and agricultural vegetative cover on bothhigh‐ and low‐lying topographic positions (12 locations in total; soil profile sampled to a depth of 40cm).Our results revealed that bulk density, pH, and nitrate concentrations were all higher in soils collectedfrom cultivate sites. In contrast, samples from forested sites exhibited greater water‐holding capacity,porosity, organic matter content, ammonia concentrations and cation exchange capacity. Many of these characteristics are linked to greater organic matter abundance and diversity in soils under forestvegetation as compared with agricultural soils. Microbial activity and Q10 values were also higher in theforest soils. While soil properties in the forest were fairly similar across topographic gradients, low‐lyingpositions under agricultural regions had higher bulk density and organic matter content than upslopepositions, suggesting significant movement of material along topographic gradients. Differences in soilproperties are attributed largely to increased compaction and loss of organic matter inputs in theagricultural system. Our results suggest that the conversion of forested land cover to agriculture landcover reduces soil quality and carbon storage, alters long‐term site productivity, and contributes toincreased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

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Response of phosphorus fractions to land-use change followed by long-term fertilization in a sub-alpine humid soil of Qinghai–Tibet plateau

Journal of Soils and Sediments ◽

10.1007/s11368-018-2132-y ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 19 (3) ◽

pp. 1109-1119 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Xiaolei Sun ◽

Meng Li ◽

Guoxi Wang ◽

Marios Drosos ◽

Fulai Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Phosphorus Fractions ◽

Tibet Plateau ◽

Qinghai Tibet Plateau

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Warming increases carbon and nutrient fluxes from sediments in streams across land use

Biogeosciences ◽

10.5194/bg-10-1193-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 1193-1207 ◽

Cited By ~ 24

Author(s):

S.-W. Duan ◽

S. S. Kaushal

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Organic Matter ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Sulfate Reduction ◽

Organic Matter Content ◽

Soluble Reactive Phosphorus ◽

Overlying Water ◽

Sediment Fluxes ◽

Urban Sites

Abstract. Rising water temperatures due to climate and land use change can accelerate biogeochemical fluxes from sediments to streams. We investigated impacts of increased streamwater temperatures on sediment fluxes of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nitrate, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and sulfate. Experiments were conducted at 8 long-term monitoring sites across land use (forest, agricultural, suburban, and urban) at the Baltimore Ecosystem Study Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Over 20 yr of routine water temperature data showed substantial variation across seasons and years. Lab incubations of sediment and overlying water were conducted at 4 temperatures (4 °C, 15 °C, 25 °C, and 35 °C) for 48 h. Results indicated: (1) warming significantly increased sediment DOC fluxes to overlying water across land use but decreased DOC quality via increases in the humic-like to protein-like fractions, (2) warming consistently increased SRP fluxes from sediments to overlying water across land use, (3) warming increased sulfate fluxes from sediments to overlying water at rural/suburban sites but decreased sulfate fluxes at some urban sites likely due to sulfate reduction, and (4) nitrate fluxes showed an increasing trend with temperature at some forest and urban sites but with larger variability than SRP. Sediment fluxes of nitrate, SRP and sulfate were strongly related to watershed urbanization and organic matter content. Using relationships of sediment fluxes with temperature, we estimate a 5 °C warming would increase mean sediment fluxes of SRP, DOC and nitrate-N across streams by 0.27–1.37 g m−2 yr−1, 0.03–0.14 kg m−2 yr−1, and 0.001–0.06 kg m−2 yr−1. Understanding warming impacts on coupled biogeochemical cycles in streams (e.g., organic matter mineralization, P sorption, nitrification, denitrification, and sulfate reduction) is critical for forecasting shifts in carbon and nutrient loads in response to interactive impacts of climate and land use change.

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Food-for-work for poverty reduction and the promotion of sustainable land use: can it work?

Environment and Development Economics ◽

10.1017/s1355770x05002676 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 15-38 ◽

Cited By ~ 30

Author(s):

STEIN HOLDEN ◽

CHRISTOPHER B. BARRETT ◽

FITSUM HAGOS

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Poverty Reduction ◽

Sustainable Land Use ◽

Northern Ethiopia ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Labor Allocation ◽

Project Outcomes ◽

Private Investments ◽

Crowd Out

Food-for-work (FFW) programs are commonly used both for short-term relief and long-term development purposes. This paper assesses the potential of FFW programs to reduce poverty and promote sustainable land use in the longer run. There is a danger that such programs distort labor allocation or crowd out private investments and therefore have unintended negative effects. We explore this issue using survey evidence from northern Ethiopia that we use to motivate a simple theoretical model, a more detailed version of which we then implement through an applied bio-economic model calibrated to northern Ethiopia. The analysis explores how FFW project outcomes may depend on FFW project design, market conditions, and technology characteristics. We show that FFW programs may either crowd out or crowd in private investments and highlight factors that condition whether FFW promotes or undercuts sustainable land use.

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