Given Japan’s substantial exposure to many kinds of natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and typhoons, it has been a priority to invest in resilience, guided by evidence-based modeling. In 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami became the costliest natural disaster ever recorded. This study applied a geographic information system using assumed tsunami-affected data calibrated in a recursive computable general equilibrium model to perform an economic impact assessment and an estimated recovery budget. We simulated 100 years of tsunamis and a 10-year sectoral recovery package for the sectors related to the ocean economy, such as kelp, net fishery, squid, other fisheries, food processing, and recreation, with a capital-use subsidy policy regarding investment strategy. We found that the aqua sector is incredibly vulnerable and would not recover with the capital-use subsidy within Hakodate City’s financial capability. Nevertheless, the recovery policy could still ease output price changes. On the other hand, the recreation sector could recover to pre-disaster conditions, but at huge fiscal and social costs. Meanwhile, the food processing sector’s recovery could generate social benefits and have a spillover effect on other fisheries sectors. The application of geographic information system in tsunami-prone areas could strengthen the precision of economic analysis. Such evidence-based modeling could visualize the economic impact to assist policymakers and stakeholders in foreseeing disaster risk and implementing more effective building resilience measures.
Geological Information System of environmental and human intervention impact assessment on bodies of water of the Irkutsk region