scholarly journals Strengthening the Early Detection and Tracking of Tropical Cyclones near Indonesian Waters

2021 ◽  
Vol 925 (1) ◽  
pp. 012010
Author(s):  
E E S Makmur ◽  
W Fitria ◽  
A S Praja ◽  
S P Rahayu ◽  
B E Pratama ◽  
...  

Abstract In early April 2021, the territory of Indonesia, around the province of East Nusa Tenggara in particular, was severely damaged due to being hit by tropical cyclone Seroja. The impact of tropical cyclone Seroja does not only occur in Nusa Tenggara but also in Australia. In fact, the impact that hit Australia exceeded the damage that occurred in East Nusa Tenggara. The impacts caused by tropical cyclone Seroja in East Nusa Tenggara included 181 deaths and 74,222 houses damaged. Tropical cyclones are extreme weather anomalies that hit many countries, especially in the middle latitudes associated with vast oceans, such as the area around the South China Sea, the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean, such as the Philippines, Japan, America, Australia, Europe, etc. Early detection systems for the genesis of tropical cyclones are still being developed by international collaborations such as The Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA) in the Indian Ocean, Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) in the Pacific Ocean, and Prediction and Research Moored, Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA). To find out the early sign of a tropical cyclone, it is characterized by sea surface temperatures > 26.5 C, the growth of very broad and thick convective clouds, and rotating wind speeds of > 63 km/hour. For this reason, continuous observations are needed in the area where the tropical cyclone first developed. Observation equipment required includes satellite observations, buoys, and weather radar. Unfortunately, in the territory of Indonesia, especially in the Indian and Pacific oceans around Indonesia, this equipment is not equipped with such equipment due to very expensive funding factors and vandalism constraints. For this reason, in the future, national and international cooperation will be needed to start building an early warning system for the emergence of tropical cyclones among research centers globally.

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (8) ◽  
pp. 3214-3229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael C. Kruk ◽  
Kyle Hilburn ◽  
John J. Marra

Abstract This study analyzes 25 years of Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) retrievals of rain rate and wind speed to assess changes in storminess over the open water of the Pacific Ocean. Changes in storminess are characterized by combining trends in both the statistically derived 95th percentile exceedance frequencies of rain rate and wind speed (i.e., extremes). Storminess is computed annually and seasonally, with further partitioning done by phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index. Overall, rain-rate exceedance frequencies of 6–8 mm h−1 cover most of the western and central tropical Pacific, with higher values present around the Philippines, Japan, Mexico, and the northwest coast of Australia. Wind speed exceedance frequencies are a strong function of latitude, with values less (greater) than 12 m s−1 equatorward (poleward) of 30°N/S. Statistically significant increasing trends in rain rate were found in the western tropical Pacific near the Caroline Islands and the Solomon Islands, and in the extratropics from the Aleutian Islands down the coast along British Columbia and Washington State. Statistically significant increasing trends in wind speed are present in the equatorial central Pacific near Kiribati and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), and in the extratropics along the west coast of the United States and Canada. Thus, while extreme rain and winds are both increasing across large areas of the Pacific, these areas are modulated according to the phase of ENSO and the PDO, and their intersection takes aim at specific locations.


2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 16945-16983 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Zhang ◽  
J. Liu ◽  
S. Tao ◽  
G. A. Ban-Weiss

Abstract. Improving the ability of global models to predict concentrations of black carbon (BC) over the Pacific Ocean is essential to evaluate the impact of BC on marine climate. In this study, we tag BC tracers from 13 source regions around the globe in a global chemical transport model MOZART-4. Numerous sensitivity simulations are carried out varying the aging timescale of BC emitted from each source region. The aging timescale for each source region is optimized by minimizing errors in vertical profiles of BC mass mixing ratios between simulations and HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO). For most HIPPO deployments, in the Northern Hemisphere, optimized aging timescales are less than half a day for BC emitted from tropical and mid-latitude source regions, and about 1 week for BC emitted from high latitude regions in all seasons except summer. We find that East Asian emissions contribute most to the BC loading over the North Pacific, while South American, African and Australian emissions dominate BC loadings over the South Pacific. Dominant source regions contributing to BC loadings in other parts of the globe are also assessed. The lifetime of BC originating from East Asia (i.e., the world's largest BC emitter) is found to be only 2.2 days, much shorter than the global average lifetime of 4.9 days, making East Asia's contribution to global burden only 36 % of BC from the second largest emitter, Africa. Thus, evaluating only relative emission rates without accounting for differences in aging timescales and deposition rates is not predictive of the contribution of a given source region to climate impacts. Our simulations indicate that lifetime of BC increases nearly linearly with aging timescale for all source regions. When aging rate is fast, the lifetime of BC is largely determined by factors that control local deposition rates (e.g. precipitation). The sensitivity of lifetime to aging timescale depends strongly on the initial hygroscopicity of freshly emitted BC. Our findings suggest that the aging timescale of BC varies significantly by region and season, and can strongly influence the contribution of source regions to BC burdens around the globe. Improving parameterizations of the aging process for BC is important for enhancing the predictive skill of air quality and climate models. Future observations that investigate the evolution of hygroscopicity of BC as it ages from different source regions to the remote atmosphere are urgently needed.


2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Halpern ◽  
Dimitris Menemenlis ◽  
Xiaochun Wang

AbstractThe impact of data assimilation on the transports of eastward-flowing Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) and North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) in the Pacific Ocean from 145°E to 95°W during 2004–05 and 2009–11 was assessed. Two Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2), solutions were analyzed: one with data assimilation and one without. Assimilated data included satellite observations of sea surface temperature and ocean surface topography, in which the sampling patterns were approximately uniform over the 5 years, and in situ measurements of subsurface salinity and temperature profiles, in which the sampling patterns varied considerably in space and time throughout the 5 years. Velocity measurements were not assimilated. The impact of data assimilation was considered significant when the difference between the transports computed with and without data assimilation was greater than 5.5 × 106 m3 s−1 (or 5.5 Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) for the EUC and greater than 5.0 Sv for the NECC. In addition, the difference of annual-mean transports computed from 3-day-averaged data was statistically significant at the 95% level. The impact of data assimilation ranged from no impact to very substantial impact when data assimilation increased the EUC transport and decreased the NECC transport. The study’s EUC results had some correspondence with other studies and no simple agreement or disagreement pattern emerged among all studies of the impact of data assimilation. No comparable study of the impact of data assimilation on the NECC has been made.


1948 ◽  
Vol 4 (03) ◽  
pp. 302-315
Author(s):  
André Gschaedler

The Conquest of Mexico was under way when Magellan’s fleet left San Lucar, September 1519, in quest of a western route to the coveted Spice Islands. On May 22, 1607, the two smaller ships of Quirós’ armada put in at Cavite in the Philippines, bringing to a close the last of the great Spanish exploration voyages in the Pacific. By that time the English and the Dutch had entered the ocean. The Sea of the South of which Balboa had taken possession in the name of his sovereigns was not to be an exclusive preserve of Spain any more. Spain was on the defensive in the New World. The great era of Spanish discovery in the Pacific Ocean was not to outlast the climax of Spanish power in the Americas. Quirós never lost his faith in the mission of Spain in the Pacific, but his entreaties, and those of the friars who were ready to accompany him for the spiritual conquest of the Pacific insular world, met with deaf ears. The Spanish authorities were under the impression that Spain had already seized more than she could grasp. In the Pacific the Spaniards were now satisfied with keeping up the Manila Galleon trade, the life line of the Philippines. The task of exploration was taken up by Spain’s competitors the Dutch, the English and the French.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Yasuda ◽  
June Inoue ◽  
Michael R. Hall ◽  
Manoj R. Nair ◽  
Mehdi Adjeroud ◽  
...  

AbstractRecurring outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) severely damage healthy corals in the Western Pacific Ocean. To determine the source of outbreaking COTS larvae and their dispersal routes across the Western Pacific, complete mitochondrial genomes were sequenced from 243 individuals collected in 11 reef regions. Our results indicate that Pacific COTS comprise two major clades, an East-Central Pacific clade (ECP-C) and a Pan-Pacific clade (PP-C). The ECP-C consists of COTS from French Polynesia (FP), Fiji, Vanuatu and the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), and does not appear prone to outbreaks. In contrast, the PP-C, which repeatedly spawns outbreaks, is a large clade comprising COTS from FP, Fiji, Vanuatu, GBR, Papua New Guinea, Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands. Given the nature of Pacific Ocean currents, the vast area encompassing FP, Fiji, Vanuatu, and the GBR likely supplies larvae for repeated outbreaks, exacerbated by anthropogenic environmental changes, such as eutrophication.


1948 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 302-315
Author(s):  
André Gschaedler

The Conquest of Mexico was under way when Magellan’s fleet left San Lucar, September 1519, in quest of a western route to the coveted Spice Islands. On May 22, 1607, the two smaller ships of Quirós’ armada put in at Cavite in the Philippines, bringing to a close the last of the great Spanish exploration voyages in the Pacific. By that time the English and the Dutch had entered the ocean. The Sea of the South of which Balboa had taken possession in the name of his sovereigns was not to be an exclusive preserve of Spain any more. Spain was on the defensive in the New World. The great era of Spanish discovery in the Pacific Ocean was not to outlast the climax of Spanish power in the Americas. Quirós never lost his faith in the mission of Spain in the Pacific, but his entreaties, and those of the friars who were ready to accompany him for the spiritual conquest of the Pacific insular world, met with deaf ears. The Spanish authorities were under the impression that Spain had already seized more than she could grasp. In the Pacific the Spaniards were now satisfied with keeping up the Manila Galleon trade, the life line of the Philippines. The task of exploration was taken up by Spain’s competitors the Dutch, the English and the French.


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