scholarly journals Methods and results of long-term strong earthquakes forecast in the Uzbekistan territory

2021 ◽  
Vol 929 (1) ◽  
pp. 012028
Author(s):  
T U Artikov ◽  
R S Ibragimov ◽  
T L Ibragimova ◽  
M A Mirzaev ◽  
Y L Rebetsky
Keyword(s):  
Stress State ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Occurrence Probability ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Seismic Regime ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Active Structures ◽  
Active Zones

Abstract An approach to evaluate the current seismological situation in the Uzbekistan territory is presented. This approach is based on the regularities of seismic processes in strong-earthquake focal areas and the manifestation peculiarities of strong earthquakes in seismically active zones. At the first stage, within seismically active zones, areas with a high seismic activity matching the strong earthquake level were identified during the historical and instrumental observation periods. Considering the low variability in the direction of seismotectonic processes over tens and hundreds of years, which determines the modern stress state of seismically active structures, these areas were considered the most likely areas to experience strong earthquakes over the next few decades. Tectonophysical validation of the division of seismically active zones into areas with different potential hazards of strong earthquakes was carried out within the framework of cataclastic analysis method of rupture dislocations (CAM). At the second stage, temporal fluctuations in seismic regime parameters within the selected areas were studied. Based on the number of current anomalous features identified, the areas were ranked according to the occurrence probability of strong earthquakes over the next few years.

scholarly journals Analysis of Epidemic Situation of New Coronavirus Infection at Home and Abroad Based on Rescaled Range (R / S) Method

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaofeng Ji ◽  
Zhou Tang ◽  
Kejian Wang ◽  
Xianbin Li ◽  
Houqiang Li
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Rescaled Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
At Home

1Summary1.1BackgroundThe outbreak of the new coronavirus infection broke out in Wuhan City, Hubei Province in December 2019, and has spread to 97 countries and regions around the world. Apart from China, there are currently three other severely affected areas, namely Italy, South Korea, and Iran. This poses a huge threat to China’s and even global public health security, challenges scientific research work such as disease surveillance and tracking, clinical treatment, and vaccine development, and it also brings huge uncertainty to the global economy. As of March 11, 2020, the epidemic situation in China is nearing its end, but the epidemic situation abroad is in the outbreak period. Italy has even taken measures to close the city nationwide, with a total of 118,020 cases of infection worldwide.1.2MethodThis article selects the data of newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 at home and abroad as the data sample. Among them: the data of newly confirmed cases abroad is represented by Italy, and the span is from February 13 to March 10. The data of newly confirmed cases at home are divided into two parts: Hubei Province and other provinces except Hubei Province, spanning from January 23 to March 3, and with February 12 as the cutting point, it”s divided into two periods, the growth period and the recession period. The rescaled range (R / S) analysis method and the dimensionless fractal Hurst exponent are used to measure the correlation of time series to determine whether the time series conforms to the fractal Brownian motion, that is, a biased random process. Contrast analysis of the meaning of H value in different stages and different overall H values in the same stage.1.3ResultsBased on R / S analysis and calculated Hurst value of newly confirmed cases in Hubei and non-Hubei provinces, it was found that the H value of Hubei Province in the first stage was 0.574, which is greater than 0.5, indicating that the future time series has a positive correlation and Fractal characteristics; The H value in the second stage is 1.368, which is greater than 1, which indicates that the future epidemic situation is completely preventable and controllable, and the second stage has a downward trend characteristic, which indicates that there is a high probability that the future time series will decline. The H values of the first and second stages of non-Hubei Province are 0.223 and 0.387, respectively, which are both less than 0.5, indicating that the time series of confirmed cases in the future is likely to return to historical points, and the H value in the second stage is greater than that in the first stage, indicating that the time series of confirmed cases in the second stage is more long-term memory than the time series of confirmed cases in the first stage. The daily absolute number of newly confirmed cases in Italy was converted to the daily growth rate of confirmed cases to eliminate the volatility of the data. The H value was 1.853, which was greater than 1, indicating that the time series of future confirmed cases is similar to the trend of historical changes. The daily rate of change in cases will continue to rise.1.4ConclusionAccording to the different interpretation of the H value obtained by the R / S analysis method, hierarchical isolation measures are adopted accordingly. When the H value is greater than 0.5, it indicates that the development of the epidemic situation in the area has more long-term memory, that is, when the number of confirmed cases in the past increases rapidly, the probability of the time series of confirmed cases in the future will continue the historical trend. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate strict anti-epidemic measures in accordance with the actual conditions of various countries, to detect, isolate, and treat early to reduce the base of infectious agents.

scholarly journals Estimation earthquake occurrence probability in Kamchatka region based on seismological and complex of ionospheric precursors

2021 ◽  
Vol 254 ◽  
pp. 03003
Author(s):  
Vadim Boganov ◽  
Aleksey Pavlov
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Critical Frequency ◽  
Occurrence Probability ◽  
Earthquake Occurrence ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Bayes Method ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Seismic Regime ◽  
Waiting Period ◽  
Kamchatka Region

In this paper the authors present the method of estimation of a region, waiting period and probability of strong earthquakes with KS ≥ 13.5 (M ≥ 6.0) in Kamchatka region based on the combination of mid-term and short-term predictive signs accompanying earthquake formation. The seismological predictive parameter ξP was taken as a mid-term precursor. It was calculated on the basis of the probabilistic model of seismic regime. A complex of ionospheric parameters was considered as short-term predictive signs with an earthquake waiting period of up to 5 days. It includes the K-layer, the sporadic Es layer of the r type, the critical frequency foF2, and the frequency stratification of the F2 layer. The probabilities of strong earthquakes with KS ≥ 13.5 (M ≥ 6.0) that occurred over the period 2019–2021 in an expected zone, determined by the parameter ξP, were estimated on the basis of Bayes method provided that a complex of anomalous parameters of the ionosphere was identified.

scholarly journals SAKHALIN

2020 ◽  
pp. 152-161
Author(s):  
T. Fokina ◽  
D. Safonov ◽  
D. Kostylev ◽  
V. Mikhaylov
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Focal Mechanisms ◽  
Local Network ◽  
Seismic Events ◽  
Regional Network ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Seismic Regime ◽  
Seismic Stations ◽  
Macroseismic Effect

A review of the Sakhalin seismicity in 2014 based on the data of regional network is given. The network included four stationary and ten temporary digital seismic stations. This network was supported by ten stations of local network operating in the south of Sakhalin. Parameters of 450 seismic events, including 25 explosions, and focal mechanisms for 4 events are determined. 22 earthquakes had a macroseismic effect. The map of earthquake completeness and the map of epicenters are given. The distribution of crust and deep earthquakes on magnitude and their summarized energy for seven seismoactive areas in comparison with average parameters for 2001–2013 are presented. For each area and the region as a whole, an analysis of the seismic regime parameters in 2014 in comparison with long-term parameters is given, tangible and strong earthquakes are described. The seismicity of the Sakhalin region in 2014 can be characterized as a moderate one. Somewhat increased seismic activity was recorded in the East Sakhalin and Southeastern areas.

The Orderly Network Structure of M≥ 7 Strong Earthquake Chain and its Prediction in Xinjiang Region of China

2011 ◽  
Vol 66 (5) ◽  
pp. 363-371
Author(s):  
Kepei Men ◽  
Wenjun Liu
Keyword(s):  
Complex Networks ◽  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Network Structure ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Chinese Characteristics ◽  
Unique Effect ◽  
Long Term Prediction ◽  
Forecasting Theory

M ≥ 7 strong earthquakes have had an obvious commensurability and orderliness in Xinjiang, China, and its neighbourhood region since 1800. The main orderly values are 30a×k (k = 1,2, 3), 11 ~ 12a, 41 ~ 43a, and 18 ~ 19a. According to the informative forecasting theory of Wen-BoWeng and complex networks technology, we try to explore the practical methods for strong earthquake prediction with Chinese characteristics, and conceive the informational orderly network structure of M ≥ 7 strong earthquakes. Based on this, Yutian M7.3 strong earthquake was successful predicted in 2008. Meanwhile, the next strong earthquake with magnitude 7 or so will happen around 2014 - 2015 in this region. The results shows that strong earthquakes could be predicted. This method has an unique effect for mid-and-long term prediction of strong earthquakes.

scholarly journals Adapting the definition of multimorbidity – development of a locality-based consensus for selecting included Long Term Conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nasrin Hafezparast ◽  
Ellie Bragan Turner ◽  
Rupert Dunbar-Rees ◽  
Alice Vodden ◽  
Hiten Dodhia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Local Health ◽  
Urban Context ◽  
Long Term Conditions ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Local Health Service

Abstract Background Defining multimorbidity has proved elusive in spite of attempts to standardise definitions. For national studies, a broad definition is required to capture national diversity. For locally based studies, the definition may need to reflect demographic and morbidity patterns. We aimed to define multimorbidity for an inner city, multi-ethnic, deprived, young age community typical of many large cities. Methods We used a scoping literature review to identify the international literature, standards and guidelines on Long Term Condition (LTC) definitions for inclusion in our multimorbidity definition. Consensus was categorised into high, medium or low consensus, depending on the number of literature sources citing each LTC. Findings were presented to a workshop consisting of local health service stakeholders who were asked to select LTCs for inclusion in a second stage review. In the second stage, each LTC was tested against seven evaluation domains: prevalence, impact, preventability, treatment burden, progression to multiple LTCs, impact on younger people, data quality. These domains were used to create 12 target criteria. LTC rankings according to consensus group and target criteria scores were presented to a second workshop for a final decision about LTC inclusion. Results The literature review identified 18 literature sources citing 86 LTCs: 11 were excluded because they were LTC clusters. The remainder were allocated into consensus groupings: 13 LTCs were ‘high consensus’ (cited by ≥ 11 sources); 15 were ‘medium consensus’ (cited by 5–10 sources); 47 were ‘low consensus’ (cited by < 5 sources). The first workshop excluded 31 LTCs. The remaining 44 LTCs consisted of: 13 high consensus LTCs, all with high target score (score 6–12); 15 medium consensus LTCs, 11 with high target scores; 16 low consensus LTCs, 6 with high target scores. The final workshop selected the 12 high consensus conditions, 12 medium consensus LTCs (10 with high target scores) and 8 low consensus LTCs (3 with high target scores), producing a final selection of 32 LTCs. Conclusions Redefining multimorbidity for an urban context ensures local relevance but may diminish national generalisability. We describe a detailed LTC selection process which should be generalisable to other contexts, both local and national.

Case study on the implementation of deammonification for the process water treatment of Munich WWTPs

2012 ◽  
Vol 65 (10) ◽  
pp. 1895-1902 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rita Hilliges ◽  
Eberhard Steinle ◽  
Bernhard Böhm
Keyword(s):  
Water Treatment ◽  
Operating Costs ◽  
Process Water ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Sludge Disposal ◽  
Sludge Digestion ◽  
High Investment ◽  
Flow Treatment

The two-staged WWTP ‘Gut Grosslappen’ has a capacity of 2 mio. PE. It comprises a pre-denitrification in the first stage using recirculation from the nitrifying second stage. A residual post-denitrification in a downstream sand filter is required in order to achieve the effluent standards. Presently the process water from sludge digestion is treated separately by nitrification/denitrification. Due to necessary reconstruction of the biological stages, the process water treatment was included in the future overall process concept of the WWTP. A case study was conducted comparing the processes nitritation/denitrititation and deammonification with nitrification/denitrification including their effect on the operational costs of the planned main flow treatment. Besides the different operating costs the investment costs required for the process water treatment played a significant role. Six cases for the process water treatment were compared. As a result, in Munich deammonification can only be recommended for long-term future developments, due to the high investment costs, compared with the nitritation/denitritation alternative realizable in existing tanks. The savings concerning aeration, sludge disposal and chemicals were not sufficient to compensate for the additional investment costs. Due to the specific circumstances in Munich, for the time being the use of existing tanks for nitritation/denitritation proved to be most economical.

Toxocariasis/cysticercosis seroprevalence in a long-term rural settlement, São Paulo, Brazil

Parasitology ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 136 (6) ◽  
pp. 681-689 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. E. PRESTES-CARNEIRO ◽  
D. H. P. SOUZA ◽  
G. C. MORENO ◽  
C. TROIANI ◽  
V. SANTARÉM ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Western Blot ◽  
Taenia Solium ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Rural Settlement ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Educational Levels ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
Ocular Manifestations

SUMMARYSeroprevalence of Toxocara and Taenia solium and risk factors for infection with these parasites were explored in a long-term rural settlement in São Paulo state, Brazil. An ELISA for the detection of anti-Toxocara IgG and IgE and anti-T. solium cysticerci was standardized using Toxocara excretory-secretory antigens (TES) obtained from the cultured second-stage larvae of T. canis and by vesicular fluid antigen from Taenia crassiceps cysticerci (VF). For cysticercosis, the reactive ELISA samples were assayed by Western blot using 18 kDa and 14 kDa proteins purified from VF. Out of 182 subjects, 25 (13·7%) presented anti-Toxocara IgG and a positive correlation between total IgE and the reactive index of specific anti-TES IgE (P=0·0265) was found amongst the subjects found seropositive for anti-Toxocara IgG. In these individuals 38·0% showed ocular manifestations. The frequency of anti-T. solium cysticerci confirmed by Western blot was 0·6%. Seropositivity for Toxocara was correlated with low educational levels and the owning of dogs. Embryonated eggs of Toxocara spp. were found in 43·3% of the analysed areas.

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