Impact of weather factors on hospital admission of hand, foot and mouth disease under climate change scenarios in Ho Chi Minh City.

Abstract Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the most common communicable diseases in Vietnam. The present study aims to examine the association between weather factors and HFMD in association with hospitalisation. Daily and weekly weather and HFMD data from 2013 to 2018 in Ho Chi Minh City were deployed. Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to examine the relationship between weather factors and HFMD. The forecasting model for HFMD was performed by using the Global Climate Model (GCM) and Yasushi Honda model. The result showed that the average daily temperature induces an increase in the risk of HFDM hospitalisation was 26°C- 30.1°C. The average daily humidity also caused increasing the risk of hospitalisation of HFMD was 75% - 85%. However, the average daily humidity <60% reduced the risk of getting HFMD. The study provides quantitative evidence that the incidence of HFMD cases was associated with meteorological variables including average daily temperature and daily humidity in Ho Chi Minh City. This findings implies that there is a need for building a public health policy for eliminating and mitigating climate change impact on community health in a resilient approach.

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HAND-FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STATUS AND RELATIONSHIP WITH METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES IN GUANGZHOU, SOUTHERN CHINA, 2008-2012

Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo ◽

10.1590/s0036-46652014000600014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 56 (6) ◽

pp. 533-539 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

Tiegang Li ◽

Zhicong Yang ◽

Xiangyi Liu ◽

Yan Kang ◽

Ming Wang

Keyword(s):

Negative Binomial ◽

Southern China ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Meteorological Variables ◽

High Morbidity ◽

Weather Factors ◽

Foot And Mouth

Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the extremely common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou, southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its increased incidence. In this study, it was used an ecological study plus the negative binomial regression to identify the epidemic status of HFMD and its relationship with meteorological variables. During 2008-2012, a total of 173,524 HFMD confirmed cases were reported, 12 cases of death, yielding a fatality rate of 0.69 per 10,000. The annual incidence rates from 2008 to 2012 were 60.56, 132.44, 311.40, 402.76, and 468.59 (per 100,000), respectively, showing a rapid increasing trend. Each 1 °C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 9.47% (95% CI 9.36% to 9.58%) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a one hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 7.53% (95% CI -7.60% to -7.45%). Similarly, each one percent rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 1.48% or 3.3%, and a one meter per hour rise in wind speed corresponded to an increase of 2.18% or 4.57%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases, depending on the variables considered in the model. These findings revealed that epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on the incidence of HFMD.

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Hand-foot-and-mouth disease and weather factors in Guangzhou, southern China

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268813002938 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 142 (8) ◽

pp. 1741-1750 ◽

Cited By ~ 27

Author(s):

T. LI ◽

Z. YANG ◽

B. DI ◽

M. WANG

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Southern China ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Control Measures ◽

High Morbidity ◽

Weather Factors ◽

Foot And Mouth

SUMMARYHand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou, southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its increased incidence. In this study, we aimed to examine the effect of weather patterns on the incidence of HFMD in the subtropical city of Guangzhou for the period 2009–2012, and assist public health prevention and control measures. A negative binomial multivariable regression was used to identify the relationship between meteorological variables and HFMD. During the study period, a total of 166 770 HFMD-confirmed cases were reported, of which 11 died, yielding a fatality rate of 0·66/10 000. Annual incidence rates from 2009 to 2012 were 132·44, 311·40, 402·76, and 468·59/1 000 00 respectively. Each 1°C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 9·38% (95% CI 8·17–10·51) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a 1 hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 6·80% (95% CI −6·99 to −6·65), having an opposite effect. Similarly, a 1% rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 0·67% or 0·51%, a 1 m/h rise in wind velocity corresponded to an increase of 4·01% or 2·65%, and a 1 day addition in the number of windy days corresponded to an increase of 24·73% or 25·87%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases, depending on the variables considered in the model. Our findings revealed that the epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on occurrence and transmission of HFMD.

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The Effects of Weather Factors on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Beijing

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/srep19247 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

Weihua Dong ◽

Xian’en Li ◽

Peng Yang ◽

Hua Liao ◽

Xiaoli Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Weather Factors ◽

Foot And Mouth

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Severe enterovirus A71 associated hand, foot and mouth disease, Vietnam, 2018: preliminary report of an impending outbreak

Eurosurveillance ◽

10.2807/1560-7917.es.2018.23.46.1800590 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 23 (46) ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Le Nguyen Thanh Nhan ◽

Nguyen Thi Thu Hong ◽

Le Nguyen Truc Nhu ◽

Lam Anh Nguyet ◽

Nguyen Thi Han Ny ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Young Children ◽

Preliminary Report ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Referral Hospital ◽

Ho Chi Minh City ◽

Tertiary Referral ◽

Tertiary Referral Hospital ◽

Enterovirus A71 ◽

Foot And Mouth

Since January 2018, over 53,000 hospitalisations and six deaths due to hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred across Vietnam with most cases from September onward. In a large tertiary referral hospital, Ho Chi Minh City, enterovirus A71 subgenogroup C4 was predominant, while B5 was only sporadically detected. The re-emergence of C4 after causing a severe HFMD outbreak with > 200 deaths in 2011–12 among susceptible young children raises concern of another impending severe outbreak.

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Seroprevalence of serotype O of foot-and-mouth disease virus in vaccinated pigs and cattle in Ho Chi Minh City

The Journal of Agriculture and Development ◽

10.52997/jad.2.06.2020 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 21-25

Author(s):

Chi Mai Duong

Keyword(s):

Disease Virus ◽

Age Groups ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Ho Chi Minh City ◽

Post Vaccination ◽

Fmd Virus ◽

Serotype O ◽

Mouth Disease Virus ◽

Foot And Mouth

The aim of this study was to assess the seroprevalence against serotype O FMD (foot and mouth disease) virus in vaccinated pigs and cattle in Ho Chi Minh City, as a basis to serve the prevention of FMD epidemics in these animals. A total of 535 pigs and 366cattle sera were tested by using the Elisa kit for the detection of serotype O FMD antibody (Pirbright, UK). Results of this study showed that most pig farms had the proportions of positive animals for antibodies against FMDV serotype O which met the requirements of Decision no. 07/2016/ Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, except Xuan Thoi Thuong, Thai My and Phu My Hung. All sows had high levels of antibodies against serotype O FMD virus. There were no significant differences in the ratios of positive pigs for antibodies against FMDV serotype O among types of pig and age groups. However, there were significant differences in the seroprevalence of vaccinated pigs across herd sizes and days post-vaccination. Meanwhile, the overall seroprevalence of vaccinated cattle against FMDV at individual-level was over 80.00%. No statistical differences were found in the seroprevalence of vaccinated cattle against type OFMDV among regions, types of cattle, herd sizes, age groups and days post-vaccination. In conclusion, pigs raised in farms of Xuan Thoi Thuong, Thai My and Phu My Hung communes should be revaccinated with FMD vaccine to prevent the risk of pigs being infected with FMD virus and reduce the amount of virus produced by an infected animal.

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Weather effects on hand, foot, and mouth disease at individual level: a case-crossover study

BMC Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1186/s12879-019-4645-4 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Zhicheng Du ◽

Shao Lin ◽

Tia Marks ◽

Wangjian Zhang ◽

Te Deng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Relative Humidity ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Asia Pacific ◽

Public Health Issue ◽

Targeted Prevention ◽

Weather Factors ◽

Lag Effects ◽

Case Crossover ◽

Foot And Mouth

Abstract Background Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) raises an urgent public health issue in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in China. The associations between weather factors and HFMD have been widely studied but with inconsistent results. Moreover, previous studies utilizing ecological design could not rule out the bias of exposure misclassification and unobserved confounders. Methods We used case-crossover analysis to assess the associations of weather factors on HFMD. Individual HFMD cases from 2009 to 2012 in Guangdong were collected and cases located within 10 km of the meteorological monitoring sites were included. Lag effects were examined through the previous 7 days. In addition, we explored the variability by changing the distance within 20 km and 30 km. Results We observed associations between HFMD and weather factors, including temperature and relative humidity. An approximately U-shaped relationship was observed for the associations of temperature on HFMD across the same day and the previous 7 days, while an approximately exponential-shaped was seen for relative humidity. Statistically significant increases in rates of HFMD were associated with each 10-unit increases in temperature [Excess rate (ER): 7.7%; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.9, 11.7%] and relative humidity (ER: 1.9%; 95% CI: 0.7, 3.0%) on lag days 0–6, when assessing within 10 km of the monitoring sites. Potential thresholds for temperature (30.0 °C) and relative humidity (70.3%) detected showed associations with HFMD. The associations remained robust for 20 km and 30 km. Conclusions Our study found that temperature and relative humidity are significantly associated with the increased rates of HFMD. Thresholds and lag effects were observed between weather factors and HFMD. Our findings are useful for planning on targeted prevention and control of HFMD.

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Impact of weather factors on hand, foot and mouth disease, and its role in short-term incidence trend forecast in Huainan City, Anhui Province

International Journal of Biometeorology ◽

10.1007/s00484-016-1225-9 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 61 (3) ◽

pp. 453-461 ◽

Cited By ~ 24

Author(s):

Desheng Zhao ◽

Lulu Wang ◽

Jian Cheng ◽

Jun Xu ◽

Zhiwei Xu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Anhui Province ◽

Short Term ◽

Weather Factors ◽

Incidence Trend ◽

Foot And Mouth

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The Effects of Foot and Mouth Disease in Yak and Cattle herds of Rasuwa District due to Climate Change

Biotechnology and Bioprocessing ◽

10.31579/2766-2314/051 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2 (8) ◽

pp. 01-11

Author(s):

Deepak Dorje Tamang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Social Inclusion ◽

Good Governance ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

The Tibetan Plateau ◽

Pasture Management ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Cattle Herds ◽

Inclusive Governance

In the era of Climate Change, the paper spotlights the importance of managing the high-altitude range land management in Nepal’s northern Rasuwa district bordering the Tibetan plateau. It points to the important fact that policies and strategies need to be inclusive and intersectional with gender equality and social inclusion (GESI) as a vital principle of good governance. Such policies, inclusive governance and support to vulnerable transhumance herders will enhance adequate grass and fodder for yak, chauri, sheep and cattle and at the same time provide veterinary support leading to improved livelihoods for the entire communities. Yak herding is carried out by Tamang transhumance community and in the age of climate change; pasture management together with extension support from local government, is critical to provide additional income to the local communities. The paper examines risk factor, i.e., foot and mouth disease (FMD) and vital nutrient requirements in terms of good quality grass fodder. It also examines the role of customary headman called the “Chogo” who collectively with his “local counsel” facilitate, wise use of the region’s natural resources, i.e., water, irrigation, forest, agriculture and above all pasture land and mediates local conflicts.

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