Trends and factors related to adolescent pregnancies: an incidence trend and conditional inference trees analysis of northern Nicaragua demographic surveillance data

Background We aimed to identify the 2001–2013 incidence trend, and characteristics associated with adolescent pregnancies reported by 20–24-year-old women. Methods A retrospective analysis of the Cuatro Santos Northern Nicaragua Health and Demographic Surveillance 2004–2014 data on women aged 15–19 and 20–24. To calculate adolescent birth and pregnancy rates, we used the first live birth at ages 10–14 and 15–19 years reported by women aged 15–19 and 20–24 years, respectively, along with estimates of annual incidence rates reported by women aged 20–24 years. We conducted conditional inference tree analyses using 52 variables to identify characteristics associated with adolescent pregnancies. Results The number of first live births reported by women aged 20–24 years was 361 during the study period. Adolescent pregnancies and live births decreased from 2004 to 2009 and thereafter increased up to 2014. The adolescent pregnancy incidence (persons-years) trend dropped from 2001 (75.1 per 1000) to 2007 (27.2 per 1000), followed by a steep upward trend from 2007 to 2008 (19.1 per 1000) that increased in 2013 (26.5 per 1000). Associated factors with adolescent pregnancy were living in low-education households, where most adults in the household were working, and high proportion of adolescent pregnancies in the local community. Wealth was not linked to teenage pregnancies. Conclusions Interventions to prevent adolescent pregnancy are imperative and must bear into account the context that influences the culture of early motherhood and lead to socioeconomic and health gains in resource-poor settings.

Incidence and Prognosis of Thyroid Cancer in Children: Based on the SEER Database

Background: Studying the incidence trend and prognosis factors of childhood Thyroid cancer (TC) may better reflect the prevalence of this disease. Objectives: To explore the trends in the incidence of childhood thyroid cancer and the prognosis.Material and Methods: Join-point regression model was used to analyze incidence trend of TC. Cox regression model was applied to explore the survival situation and prognostic factors.Results: The incidence rate of childhood TC increased between 1975 and 2016 from 3.8/million (95%CI: 2.6-5.5) to 11.5/million (95%CI: 9.2-14.1), AAPC = 2.38 (95%CI: 1.98-9.65)) and could be divided into two stages of increasing trends. The incidence rate of Trend1 (1975-2005) increased slowly but Trend2 (2005-2016) increased dramatically. And annual rates of small size tumor (<4cm) and local stage TC in children increased significantly. The overall cumulative survival rate for childhood TC was high up to 97%-99%. Males, the black people, MTC type, distant metastasis, tumor size >= 4 cm, non-primary cancer were the independent risk factors of prognosis of childhood TC.Conclusions and Significance: A contribution of over detection to rising pediatric TC rates might not be able to rule out. Over-treatment to small size and local stage TC in children should be avoided.

Trends of Stomach Cancer in Central Serbia

Somach cancer is the third most common cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. The objective of the paper was to analyze the incidence and mortality trends of stomach cancer in Central Serbia in the period between 1999–2017. Materials and Methods: trends and annual percentage change (APC) of the incidence and mortality rate with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated by joinpoint regression analyses. The optimal number of Joinpoints was identified using the Monte Carlo permutation method. The trend was considered to be significantly increasing (positive change) or decreasing (negative change) when the p-value was below 0.05 (p < 0.05). Results: the total number of new cases was 16,914 (10,873 males and 6041 females) and the total number of mortality cases was 14,790 (9348 in and 5442 in females). Almost one third (30.8%) of new cases were registered in the 60–69-year age group, and new cases were significantly more frequent in males than in females (30.8% vs. 29.02%, p < 0.001). Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decrease of incidence trend in females during the 2000–2015 period with APC of −2.13% (95% CI: −3.8 to −0.5, p < 0.001). An insignificant decrease in incidence trend was in males with APC of −0.72% (95% CI: −2.3 to 0.9, p = 0.30). According to the joinpoint analysis, a significant decrease of mortality trends both in males during 2000–2015 with APC of −2.21% (95% CI: −1.6 to −7.5, p ≤ 0.001 and in females, during the same period, with APC of −1.75% (95% CI: −2.9 to −0.6, p < 0.001) was registered. From 2015 to 2017, a significant increase of mortality was registered with APC of 44.5% (95% CI: from 24.2 to −68.1, p ≤ 0.001) in females and in males with APC of 53.15% (95% CI: 13.5 to −106.6, p ≤ 0.001). Conclusion: a significant decrease of stomach cancer incidence trend in females and insignificant decrease of incidence trend in males were determined in Central Serbia. Based on presented results, the mortality trend decreased significantly both in males and in females during 2000–2015, and from 2015 to 2017 we recorded a significant increase in mortality in both sexes. We found significantly more new cases in women than in men in the age group of 40–49, and the mortality of stomach cancer was significantly more frequent among females compared to males in the age groups 30–39, as well as in the 50–59 age group. There is a need for improving recording and registration of new cases of stomach cancer, especially in females. Urgent primary and secondary preventive measures are needed—introducing stomach cancer screening and early detection of premalignant changes. Urgent primary and secondary preventive measures are needed.

Incidence and trend of Epstein-Barr virus-related cancer: A surveillance, epidemiology, and end results program based study.

10575 Background: Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection was highly prevalent, as was found in more than 90% of the adults globally. EBV infection has been found to be related with several types of cancer and classified as group 1 carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The association between EBV infection and malignancy was observed in Burkitt lymphoma (BL), Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), extranodal natural killer (NK)/T-cell lymphoma (NNKTL), gastric cancer (GC) and nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC). In this study, we aimed to analyze the incidence and the trend of incidence of these virus-related cancer and to identify whether the trend was similar between them. Methods: This was a retrospective analysis based on the data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (18 registries, 2000-2017), which totally included 71,415 patients. EBV-related cancers were defined as BL, HL, NNKTL, GC and NPC. Age-adjusted incidence rates were displayed as per 100,000 persons. In terms of incidence trend, we calculated the average annual percent change (AAPC). AAPC was considered significantly different from 0 when the P-value was smaller than 0.05. The impact of the epidemiological and clinical characteristics on the incidence trend was estimated, with cancer type, histology, age, sex and race considered. Results: Incidence rates of EBV-related cancers were 6.68 per 100,000 persons in 2000 and 5.80 in 2017, of which the AAPC was -0.8 (95%CI, -1.1 - -0.5, P-value < 0.001). (Table) Similar with EBV-related cancer as a whole, the APCCs of BL, HL and GC were statistically significantly smaller than 0, except that the APCCs of NNKTL and NPC were statistically significantly larger than 0 and not statistically significantly different from 0 respectively. The incidence of EBV-related cancer also decreased in mixed cellularity classical HL, nodular sclerosis classical HL, adenocarcinoma of GC, signet ring cell carcinoma in GC, undifferentiated carcinoma of NPC, squamous cell carcinoma of NPC, patients diagnosed at the age of 20-39 years old and 60-79 years old, male patients and race as white, black or Asian, but increased in classical HL, NOS, nodular lymphocyte predominant HL and non-keratinizing carcinoma of NPC. Conclusions: Incidence of EBV-related cancer decreased during 2000 and 2017, which was consistent in BL, HL and GC.[Table: see text]

Recent incidence trend of elderly patients with glioblastoma in the United States, 2000–2017

Background The incidence of glioblastoma increases significantly with age. With the growing and aging population, there is a lack of comprehensive analysis of recent glioblastoma incidence trend in the United States. This study aims to provide in-depth description of the patterns of incidence trends and to examine the age-period-cohort effects to the trends of glioblastoma specific to elderly patients. Methods The incidence rates were age-adjusted and reported per 100,000 population. We calculated the annual percent change (APC) in incidence using the Joinpoint Regression Program and conducted an age-period-cohort analysis of elderly glioblastoma reported between 2000 and 2017 to the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) 18 registry database. Results The overall incidence rate of elderly patients with glioblastoma was 13.16 per 100,000 (95% CI, 12.99–13.32) from 2000 to 2017. Non-Hispanic whites (20,406, 83.6%) made up the majority. The incidence rate of male was about 1.62 times that of female. The trend of incidence remained stable and there was a non-significant increasing tendency for all elderly patients (APC 0.3, 95% CI, − 0.1 to 0.7, p = 0.111). There was a significantly increasing incidence trend for non-Hispanic white (APC 0.6, 95% CI, 0.2 to 1.1, p = 0.013), supratentorial location (APC 0.7, 95% CI, 0.2 to 1.3, p = 0.016), tumor size < 4 cm (APC 2.5, 95% CI, 1.4 to 3.6, p < 0.001), and a significantly decreasing trend for overlapping/NOS location (APC -0.9, 95% CI, − 1.6 to − 0.2, p = 0.012), and unknown tumor size (APC -4.9, 95% CI, − 6.6 to − 3.3, p < 0.001). The age-period-cohort analysis showed the effect of age on incidence trends (p< 0.001, Wald test), while did not indicate the period and cohort effects of the incidence trends of glioblastoma (p = 0.063 and p =0.536, respectively, Wald test). Conclusion The overall incidence of glioblastoma in the elderly population remained stable between 2000 and 2017. Period and cohort effects were not evident in the trend of glioblastoma incidence. Future population-based studies exploring the difference in the trend of glioblastoma incidence by specific molecular subgroups are warranted to further our understanding of the etiology of glioblastoma.