scholarly journals The ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: Impact on Trade Flows and External Trade Barriers

Author(s):  
Hector Calvo-Pardo ◽  
Caroline Freund ◽  
Emanuel Ornelas
2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-37
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arif Junaidi

Using trade flows data of ASEAN countries and China from 2002 to 2017, this studyestimates the impact of ACFTA on ASEAN countries and China’s trade balance in general,and also for Indonesia’s trade balance in specific by elaborating the impact of ACFTA onthe trade flows both exports and imports. Using the gravity model and estimating by OLSand PPML, this paper finds that the impact of tariffs elimination due to the implementationof ACFTA increased exports and imports for ASEAN countries and China in general, andfor Indonesia in particular. However, the aggregate trade balances of ASEAN membercountries and China is zero since the impact of ACFTA on imports offset the impact ofACFTA on exports. Tariff’s elimination due to the implementation of ACFTA on Indonesiashows a negative and statistically insignificant effect on imports and exports. Thus, tariffshave not played significant role on increasing Indonesia’s exports and imports. As a result,the impact of ACFTA on Indonesia’s trade balance cannot be quantified clearly since theimpact of tariffs on exports and imports are not significant.


Significance The agreement offers zero quotas and tariffs on most goods, but there is little coverage on services while trade flows face disruption from significant non-tariff barriers. Impacts The deal will make it slightly easier to reach a UK-US free trade agreement, though strong divisions remain. The strict conditionality associated with the FTA suggests Euroscepticism will remain an important feature of UK politics. The process and costs associated with Brexit makes it less likely that Eurosceptic member states will attempt to leave the EU.


Author(s):  
Shawkat Alam ◽  
Pundarik Mukhopadhya ◽  
Md. Rizwanul Islam

In 2007, Australia and India began a joint feasibility study to assess the prospect of an Australia-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Agriculture will be a crucial negotiation point in any such FTA. Agriculture is a key sector of the Australian economy, and an important and lucrative export, with more than half of the sector’s output exported. The scope of increased domestic demand in agriculture is limited for a significant segment of the sector. Therefore, sustained growth of the industry requires new export markets to be opened. This paper will analyse the prospects of boosting agricultural exports from Australia via the proposed FTA. This paper will assess the tariff and non-tariff barriers in agriculture in India and critically assess how an FTA could reduce these barriers. The benefits of increased liberalisation of agricultural trade in India will also be discussed to demonstrate the mutually beneficial opportunities that reduced trade barriers could provide.


2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (Special Edition) ◽  
pp. 87-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Musleh-ud Din Musleh-ud Din ◽  
Ejaz Ghani ◽  
Usman Qadir

This paper examines the prospects of expanding bilateral trade between Pakistan and China particularly in the context of the recently signed free trade agreement between the two countries. Using the augmented gravity model in the tradition of Rose (2004), the paper shows that there is significant potential for the expansion of bilateral trade between the two countries as a result of the free trade agreement. The paper also analyzes bilateral trade flows between the two countries in terms of a trade specialization index and the Grubel-Lloyd index of intra-industry trade. We show that bilateral trade between the two countries is heavily tilted in favor of China and that this situation may persist in the short term.


Author(s):  
Nguyen Thi Hoang Oanh

The important year of 1995 marked Vietnam’s first integration as a member of ASEAN. By 2016, Vietnam had negotiated, signed, and implemented sixteen free trade agreements. They include both multilateral and bilateral free trade agreements such as the China-ASEAN, Vietnam-Chile, and Vietnam-Japan agreements. By signing free trade agreements Vietnam can increase trade flows in bilateral and multilateral developed-country FTA scenarios. Trade creation and diversion can be found in multilateral developing-country FTA scenarios and the author finds the impacts of each free trade agreement is different if analyzed for each 2-digit commodity. Keywords Free trade agreement, trade, import, export.t commodity References [1] Baier, S.L., Bergstrand, J.H., “Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?”, Journal of International Economics, 71 (2007), 72-95.[2] Chong, Soo Yuen & Hur, Jung, “Small Hubs, Large Spokes and Overlapping Free Trade Agreements”, The World Economy, 10.1111/j (2008), 1467-9701.[3] Hur, J., Alba, J. D., & Park, D., “Effects of hub-and-spoke free trade agreements on trade: A panel data analysis”, World Development, 38 (2010) 8, 1105-111.[4] McDonald, S. & Walmsley, Terrie, “Bilateral Free Trade Agreements and Customs Unions: The Impact of the EU Republic of South Africa Free Trade Agreement on Botswana”, The World Economy, 10.1111/j (2008),1467-9701.[5] Pan, S., Welch, M., Mohanty, S., Fadiga, M., & Ethridge, D., “Welfare analysis of the Dominican Republic-Central America-United States free trade agreement: The cotton textile and apparel industries”, The International Trade Journal, Vol. XXII (2008) 2, 1521-0545.[6] Benedictis, L., Santis, R., Vicarelli, C., “Hub-and-Spoke or else? Free trade agreements in the “enlarged” European Union”, The European Journal of Comparative Economics, 2 (2005) 2, 245-260.[7] Nguyen, Q.H., & Nguyen, T.H., “The impact of free trade agreement on trade flow of goods in Vietnam”, Vietnam Economist Annual Meeting, 2015[8] Das, R.U., Rishi, M., Dubey, J.D., “Asean plus six and successful FTAS: Can India propel intra-industry trade flows?”, The Journal of Developing Areas, 50 (2016) 2.[9] Hayakawa, K., “Impact of diagonal accumulation rule on FTA utilization: Evidence from bilateral and multilateral FTAs between Japan and Thailand”, J. Japanese Int. Economies, 32 (2014), 1-16.[10] Jennifer Y. Leung, “Bilateral vertical specialization between the U.S. and its trade partners - before and after the free trade agreements”, International Review of Economics and Finance, 45 (2016), 177-196.[11] Jongwanich, J., & Kohpaiboon, A., “Exporter responses to FTA tariff preferences: evidence from Thailand”, Asian Pacific Economic Literature (2017).[12] Lakatos, C., & Walmsley, T., “Investment creation and diversion effects of the ASEAN-China free trade agreement”, Economic Modelling, 29 (2012), 766-779.[13] Vanhnalat, B. at el., “Assessment the Effect of Free Trade Agreements on Exports of Lao PDR”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5 (2015) 2, 365-376.[14] Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), “Freedom of international trade in Vietnam”, Research report, Vietnam, 2015.


2008 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 507-530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry A. Chase

The design of rules of origin in free trade agreements (FTAs) arouses spirited lobbying campaigns that mostly escape public attention. This article argues that the domestic groups generally most favorable to FTAs differ in their preferences over rules of origin: industries with large returns to scale favor strict rules of origin to gain scale economies in an FTA, while industries with multinational supply chains prefer lenient rules of origin to accommodate offshore procurement. An econometric analysis of rules of origin in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) finds tougher rules of origin the higher the external trade protection and the larger the returns to scale, and more permissive rules of origin the greater the involvement in foreign sourcing. The results suggest that rules of origin may be critical to building domestic coalitions for FTAs. Industry preferences toward rules of origin therefore have important implications for the politics of FTA ratification.


2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 116-134
Author(s):  
David Karemera ◽  
Paul Reinstra-Munnicha ◽  
Joseph Onyeocha

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-84
Author(s):  
Jinhwan Oh ◽  
Bekzod Yuldashev ◽  
Soo Hyun Moon

This study applies the gravity model to describe Uzbekistan’s trade pattern, based on which several policy implications are made. We find that Uzbekistan’s estimated trade flows with Ukraine, Russia, China, and South Korea are much more than the actual flows, while the country’s economic contacts with its neighboring countries (Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan) are far less than expected. This suggests that Uzbekistan should strive to increase trade with neighboring countries, through taking part in a free trade agreement between countries of Central Asia, or strategically using neighboring countries bordering the Caspian Sea and Arabian Sea.


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