Rise in Malaria Incidence Rates in South Africa: A Small-Area Spatial Analysis of Variation in Time Trends

The little-known Aloe labiaflava (Asphodelaceae subfam. Alooideae), which has for long been regarded as a hybrid between A. davyana and A. longibracteata, is reinstated as an accepted species endemic to a small area in the western Mpumalanga province of South Africa. It differs from both A. davyana and A. longibracteata in several reproductive morphological characters not present in these two species, especially by almost invariably producing only a single inflorescence per flowering season and by having a perianth that is distinctly flared at the mouth, with especially the external, apical ⅓ of the perianth conspicuously yellow.

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Second Order Segmented Polynomials for Syphilis and Gonorrhea Prevalence and Incidence Trends Estimation: Application to Spectrum’s Guinea-Bissau and South Africa Data

The International Journal of Biostatistics ◽

10.1515/ijb-2017-0073 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 15 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Severin Guy Mahiane ◽

Carel Pretorius ◽

Eline Korenromp

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Model Selection ◽

Akaike Information Criterion ◽

Recovery Rate ◽

Time Trends ◽

Information Criterion ◽

Second Order ◽

Incidence Trends ◽

Guinea Bissau ◽

Linear Regressions

Abstract This paper presents two approaches to smoothing time trends in prevalence and estimating the underlying incidence of remissible infections. In the first approach, we use second order segmented polynomials to smooth a curve in a bounded domain. In the second, incidence is modeled instead and the prevalence is reconstructed using the recovery rate which is assumed to be known. In both approaches, the number of knots and their positions are estimated, resulting in non-linear regressions. Akaike Information Criterion is used for model selection. The method is illustrated with Syphilis and Gonorrhea prevalence smoothing and incidence trend estimation in Guinea-Bissau and South Africa, respectively.

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A Spatial Analysis of Property Crime Rates in South Africa

South African Journal of Economics ◽

10.1111/saje.12279 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Kabeya Clement Mulamba

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Spatial Analysis ◽

Property Crime ◽

Crime Rates

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Corrigendum to “Ethnic and gender-specific incidence rates for hip fractures in South Africa: A multi-centre study” [Bone 133C (2020) 115253]

Bone ◽

10.1016/j.bone.2020.115435 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 137 ◽

pp. 115435

Author(s):

S.S. Dela ◽

F. Paruk ◽

S.L. Brown ◽

M. Lukhele ◽

A.A. Kalla ◽

...

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Hip Fractures ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Multi Centre Study ◽

Centre Study ◽

And Gender ◽

Gender Specific

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Increasing Cervical Cancer Incidence in Rural Eastern Cape Province of South Africa From 1998 to 2012: A Population-Based Cancer Registry Study

JCO Global Oncology ◽

10.1200/jgo.19.00198 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-8

Author(s):

Nontuthuzelo I.M. Somdyala ◽

Debbie Bradshaw ◽

Muhammad A. Dhansay ◽

Daniela C. Stefan

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Cervical Cancer ◽

Cancer Registry ◽

Screening Program ◽

Population Based ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

District Health ◽

Northern Area ◽

Southern Area ◽

Screening Coverage

PURPOSE In this study, we aimed to investigate trends in the age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates in two distinct regions (the northern and southern areas) of South Africa covered by a population-based cancer registry. In addition, trends in coverage of the cervical cancer screening program were assessed using routine health service data. METHODS Occurrences (topography C53.0-C53.9) for the period 1998-2012 were extracted from a cancer registry database from which basic descriptive statistics and frequencies were analyzed for all variables using CanReg4. Trends over time were estimated using a direct standardization method and world standard population as a reference. Screening coverage annualized figures for women age ≥ 30 years by sub–health district were extracted from the District Health Information System. RESULTS In the northern area, annual age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 women increased from 24.0 (95% CI, 21.1 to 27.0) in 1998-2002 to 39.0 (95% CI, 35.6 to 42.5) in 2008-2012, with a screening coverage rate of 15% by 2012. In contrast, no increase was observed in incidence in the southern area, with rates of 20.0 (95% CI, 18.5 to 21.4) in 1998-2002 and 18.8 (95% CI, 16.2 to 21.4) in 2008-2012, and the southern area had a higher screening coverage of 41% in 2012. Overall, the percentage distribution of stage at diagnosis showed that 28.5% of occurrences were diagnosed at disease stages I and II and 35%, at III and IV; 36% had with missing stage information (2003-2012). In 77% of occurrences, a histologically verified diagnosis was made, compared with only 12.3% by cytology. CONCLUSION This study has demonstrated an almost two-fold increase in the incidence rate in the northern area but little change in the southern area of the cancer registry.

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Trends in cancer incidence and survival in the Augsburg study region—results from the Augsburg cancer registry

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2019-036176 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (8) ◽

pp. e036176

Author(s):

Nina Grundmann ◽

Christa Meisinger ◽

Martin Trepel ◽

Jacqueline Müller-Nordhorn ◽

Gerhard Schenkirsch ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Breast Cancer ◽

Prostate Cancer ◽

Pancreatic Cancer ◽

Cancer Incidence ◽

Oropharyngeal Cancer ◽

Time Trends ◽

Cancer Survival ◽

Relative Survival ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Study Region

ObjectivesKnowledge about time trends of cancer incidence and cancer survival in a defined region is an essential prerequisite for the planning of regional healthcare infrastructure. The aim of the study was to provide population-based analyses of all common tumour sites to assess the cancer burden in the Augsburg study region.SettingTotal population of the study region of Augsburg (668 522 residents), Southern Germany.ParticipantsThe data obtained from the Cancer Registry Augsburg comprised 37 487 incident cases of malignant tumours (19 313 men and 18 174 women) diagnosed between 2005 and 2016 in the Augsburg region’s resident population.Primary and secondary outcome measuresWe calculated sex-specific, age-standardised incidence rates and annual percent change to assess time trends. In men and in women, 3-year and 5-year relative survival was calculated and results were compared with the latest German estimates. Survival trends were presented for the most common cancers only.ResultsDecreasing age-standardised incidence rates were observed for prostate cancer and for colorectal cancer in men. For oropharyngeal cancer, rates declined in men, but significantly increased in women. Incidence for female breast cancer remained stable. Five-year relative survival ranged between 6.4% (95% CI: 4.1% to 10.1%) for pancreatic cancer and 97.7% (95% CI: 96.0% to 99.4%) for prostate cancer in men and between 10.2% (95% CI: 7.1% to 14.6%) for pancreatic cancer and 96.6% (95% CI: 93.6% to 99.6%) for malignant melanoma in women. Trends in 3-year survival of the five most common tumour sites in men showed a significant increase for lung and oropharyngeal cancer. In women, continuously rising survival trends were observed for breast cancer.ConclusionsSurvival of cancer patients in the Augsburg study region was largely concordant with the situation in Germany as a whole, while incidence showed slight deviations in some cancer sites. Regional evaluations on cancer survival are a valuable instrument for identifying deficits and determining advances in oncological health management.

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