Retracted: Analysis of the Strength of Legal Firearms Restrictions for Perpetrators of Domestic Violence and Their Associations With Intimate Partner Homicide

Abstract In this research, we estimate the association of firearm restrictions for domestic violence offenders with intimate partner homicides (IPHs) on the basis of the strength of the policies. We posit that the association of firearm laws with IPHs depends on the following characteristics of the laws: 1) breadth of coverage of high-risk individuals and situations restricted; 2) power to compel firearm surrender or removal from persons prohibited from having firearms; and 3) systems of accountability that prevent those prohibited from doing so from obtaining guns. We conducted a quantitative policy evaluation using annual state-level data from 1980 through 2013 for 45 US states. Based on the results of a series of robust, negative binomial regression models with state fixed effects, domestic violence restraining order firearm-prohibition laws are associated with 10% reductions in IPH. Statistically significant protective associations were evident only when restraining order prohibitions covered dating partners (−11%) and ex parte orders (−12%). Laws prohibiting access to those convicted of nonspecific violent misdemeanors were associated with a 24% reduction in IPH rates; there was no association when prohibitions were limited to domestic violence. Permit-to-purchase laws were associated with 10% reductions in IPHs. These findings should inform policymakers considering laws to maximize protections against IPH.

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NATO between Exclusivity and Inclusivity: Measuring NATO’s Partnerships

Mezinárodní vztahy ◽

10.32422/mv-cjir.1746 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-32

Author(s):

Branislav Mičko

Keyword(s):

Human Rights ◽

Fixed Effects ◽

International Institutions ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Original Dataset ◽

Strategic Approach ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

The Given ◽

The Relationship

Building on an original dataset, this article focuses on the interactions between NATO and its declared worldwide partners. It argues that the analysis of these interactions can reveal NATO’s strategic approach to partnerships, but it can also provide a tool for its classification as an organisation that is either exclusive – defined by the focus on defence of its members, or inclusive – emphasising the global protection of democracies and human rights. The relationship between types of interactions and NATO categorisation is estimated using an unconditional negative binomial regression with fixed effects as well as a within-between (hybrid) model. Furthermore, they are illustrated on two brief case studies of Sweden and Japan. The results of the study suggest that NATO engages primarily with countries that are powerful relative to their neighbourhood, even though they are not the most powerful among the partners. The given country’s level of democracy, integration into the international institutions, and stability, do not seem to play any overarching role here.

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Suicide by pesticide poisoning in India: a review of pesticide regulations and their impact on suicide trends

10.21203/rs.2.15477/v2 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Toby Bonvoisin ◽

Leah Utyasheva ◽

Duleeka Knipe ◽

David Gunnell ◽

Michael Eddleston

Keyword(s):

Negative Binomial ◽

Public Health Problem ◽

State Level ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

World Health ◽

State Governments ◽

Suicide Rates ◽

Level Data ◽

Agricultural Yield ◽

Health Organization

Abstract Background Pesticide self-poisoning is a common means of suicide in India. Banning highly hazardous pesticides (HHPs) from agricultural use has been successful in reducing suicides in several Asian countries without affecting agricultural output. Here, we describe national and state-level regulation of HHPs and explore how they might relate to suicide rates across India.Methods Information on pesticide regulation was collated from agriculture departments of the central and state governments. National and state-level data on suicides from 1995 to 2015 were obtained from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB). We used joinpoint analysis and negative binomial regression to investigate any effects on trends in suicide rates nationally and in Kerala.Results As of October 2019, 318 pesticides were registered for use in India, of which 18 were extremely (Class Ia) or highly (Class Ib) hazardous according to World Health Organization criteria. Despite many HHPs still being available, several bans have been implemented during the period studied. In our quantitative analyses we focused on the permanent bans in Kerala in 2005 (of endosulfan) and 2011 (of 14 other pesticides); and nationally in 2011 (of endosulfan). NCRB data indicate that pesticides were used in 441,918 reported suicides in India from 1995-2015, 90.3% of which occurred in 11 of the 29 states. There was statistical evidence of lower than expected rates of pesticide suicides (rate ratio [RR] 0.52, 95% CI 0.49-0.54) and total suicides nationally by 2014 (0.90, 0.87-0.93) after the 2011 endosulfan ban. In Kerala, there was a lower than expected pesticide suicide rate (0.45, 0.42-0.49), but no change to the already decreasing trend in total suicides after the 2011 ban of 14 pesticides. The 2005 ban on endosulfan showed a similar effect. Agricultural outputs continued growing following the bans.Discussion Highly hazardous pesticides continue to be used in India and pesticide suicide remains a serious public health problem. However, some pesticide bans do appear to have impacted previous trends in the rates of both pesticide suicides and all suicides. Comprehensive national bans of HHPs could lead to a reduction in suicides across India, in addition to reduced occupational poisoning, with minimal effects on agricultural yield.

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The Relationship between Beer Taxes, Other Alcohol Policies, and Child Homicide Deaths

Topics in Economic Analysis & Policy ◽

10.2202/1538-0653.1571 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Bisakha Sen

Keyword(s):

Fixed Effects ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

State Level ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Child Homicide ◽

Alcohol Policies ◽

Undetermined Intent ◽

Outlet Density ◽

Conditional Maximum ◽

The Relationship

Abstract Extant research finds inverse relationships between beer taxes and physical child abuse. This study extends the direction of research by investigating the relationship between beer taxes, other alcohol policies and child homicide deaths. The homicide death count for children 0-9 years old at the state level over 1981-2002 is used as the dependent variable. Negative binomial regression models with state and year fixed effects and other control variables are estimated. Results show an inverse relationship between per gallon beer taxes and child homicide deaths (elasticity approximately -0.19), and a direct relationship between alcohol retail outlet density and child homicide deaths (elasticity approximately 0.16). Very similar results are obtained when the dependent variable is changed to be the sum of child homicide deaths and child deaths classified as being due to 'undetermined intent', and when conditional maximum likelihood Poisson models are used instead of negative binomial models.

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Network analysis of firearm movement among US states

10.21203/rs.3.rs-37154/v3 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Sae Takada ◽

Kristen Choi ◽

Shaw Natsui ◽

Altaf Saadi ◽

Liza Buchbinder ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Network Analysis ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

State Level ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Similar Model ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Us States ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

The Relationship

Abstract Background: The movement of firearm across state lines may decrease the effectiveness of state-level firearm laws. Yet how state-level firearm policies affect cross-state movement have not yet been widely explored. This study aims to characterize the interstate movement of firearms and its relationship with state-level firearm policies. Methods: Cross-sectional time series network analysis of interstate firearm movement using Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives firearm trace data (2010 -2017). We constructed the network of firearm movement between 50 states. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression to estimate the relationship between the number of a state’s firearm laws and number of states for which it was the source of 100 or more firearms, adjusting for state characteristics. We used a similar model to examine the relationship between firearm laws and the number of states for which a given state was the destination of 100 or more firearms.Results: Over the 8-year period, states had an average of 26 (SD 25.2) firearm laws. On average, a state was the source of 100 or more crime-related firearms for 2.2 (SD 2.7) states and was the destination of 100 or more crime-related firearms for 2.2 (SD 3.4) states. Greater number of firearm laws was associated with states being the source of 100 or more firearms to fewer states (IRR0.67 per SD, p<0.001), higher odds of not being a source to any states (aOR1.56 per SD, p<0.001), and states being the destination of 100 or more firearms from more states (IRR1.83 per SD, p<0.001).Conclusions: Restrictive firearm policies are associated with less movement of firearms to other states, but with more movement of firearms from outside states. The effectiveness of state-level firearm-restricting laws is complicated by a network of interstate firearm movement.

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Network analysis of firearm movement among US states

10.21203/rs.3.rs-37154/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Sae Takada ◽

Kristen Choi ◽

Shaw Natsui ◽

Altaf Saadi ◽

Liza Buchbinder ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Network Analysis ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

State Level ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Similar Model ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Us States ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

The Relationship

Abstract Background: The movement of firearm across state lines may decrease the effectiveness of state-level firearm laws. Yet how state-level firearm policies affect cross-state movement have not yet been widely explored. This study aims to characterize the interstate movement of firearms and its relationship with state-level firearm policies. Methods : Cross-sectional time series network analysis of interstate firearm movement using Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives firearm trace data (2010 -2017). We constructed the network of firearm movement between 50 states. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression to estimate the relationship between the number of a state’s firearm laws and number of states for which it was the source of 100 or more firearms, adjusting for state characteristics. We used a similar model to examine the relationship between firearm laws and the number of states for which a given state was the destination of 100 or more firearms. Results : Over the 8-year period, states had an average of 26 (SD 25.2) firearm laws. On average, a state was the source of 100 or more crime-related firearms for 2.2 (SD 2.7) states and was the destination of 100 or more crime-related firearms for 2.2 (SD 3.4) states. Greater number of firearm laws was associated with states being the source of 100 or more firearms to fewer states (IRR0.67 per SD, p<0.001), higher odds of not being a source to any states (aOR1.56 per SD, p<0.001), and states being the destination of 100 or more firearms from more states (IRR1.83 per SD, p<0.001). Conclusions: Restrictive firearm policies are associated with less movement of firearms to other states, but with more movement of firearms from outside states. The effectiveness of state-level firearm-restricting laws is complicated by a network of interstate firearm movement.

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Abstract P91: Excess Cerebrovascular Mortality in the U.S. During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Stroke ◽

10.1161/str.52.suppl_1.p91 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 52 (Suppl_1) ◽

Author(s):

Richa Sharma ◽

Lindsey Kuohn ◽

Daniel Weinberger ◽

Joshua Warren ◽

Lauren H Sansing ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Negative Binomial ◽

State Level ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

The State ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

Stroke Death ◽

The U.S ◽

Related Mortality ◽

Health Statistic

Introduction: The magnitude and drivers of excess cerebrovascular-specific mortality during the coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) pandemic are unknown. We aim to quantify excess stroke-related death and characterize its association with psychosocial factors and emerging COVID-19 related mortality. Methods: U.S. and state-level excess cerebrovascular deaths from January-May 2020 were quantified by Poisson regression models built using National Center for Health Statistic (NCHS) data. Weekly excess cerebrovascular deaths in the U.S. were analyzed as functions of time-varying, weekly stroke-related EMS calls and weekly COVID-19 deaths by univariable linear regression. A state-level negative binomial regression analysis was performed to determine the association between excess cerebrovascular deaths and social distancing (degree of change in mobility per Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports) during the height of the pandemic after the first COVID-19 death (February 29, 2020), adjusting for cumulative COVID-19 related deaths and completeness of deaths attributable to COVID-19 in NCHS. Findings: There were 918 more cerebrovascular deaths than expected from January 1-May 16 th , 2020 in the U.S. Excess cerebrovascular mortality occurred during every week between March 28-May 2 nd , 2020, up to 7.8% during the week of April 18 th . Decreased stroke-related EMS calls were associated with excess stroke deaths one (β -0.06, 95% CI -0.11, -0.02) and two weeks (β -0.08, 95% CI -0.12, -0.04) later. There was no significant association between weekly excess stroke death and COVID-19 death. Twenty-three states and NYC experienced excess cerebrovascular mortality during the pandemic height. At the state level, a 10% increase in social distancing was associated with a 4.3% increase in stroke deaths (IRR 1.043, 95% CI 1.001–1.085) after adjusting for COVID-19 mortality. Conclusions: Excess U.S. cerebrovascular deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic were observed with decreases in stroke-related EMS calls nationally and less mobility at the state level. Public health measures are needed to identify and counter the reticence to seeking medical care for acute stroke during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Homicide and impunity: an ecological analysis at state level in Brazil

Revista de Saúde Pública ◽

10.1590/s0034-89102009000500001 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 43 (5) ◽

pp. 733-742 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Paulo Nadanovsky ◽

Roger Keller Celeste ◽

Margo Wilson ◽

Martin Daly

Keyword(s):

Negative Binomial ◽

State Level ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Study Data ◽

Development Economic ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Homicide Rates ◽

Young Males ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

Homicide Victim

OBJECTIVE: To assess a new impunity index and variables that have been found to predict variation in homicide rates in other geographical levels as predictive of state-level homicide rates in Brazil. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional ecological study. Data from the mortality information system relating to the 27 Brazilian states for the years 1996 to 2005 were analyzed. The outcome variables were taken to be homicide victim rates in 2005, for the entire population and for men aged 20-29 years. Measurements of economic and social development, economic inequality, demographic structure and life expectancy were analyzed as predictors. An "impunity index", calculated as the total number of homicides between 1996 and 2005 divided by the number of individuals in prison in 2007, was constructed. The data were analyzed by means of simple linear regression and negative binomial regression. RESULTS: In 2005, state-level crude total homicide rates ranged from 11 to 51 per 100,000; for young men, they ranged from 39 to 241. The impunity index ranged from 0.4 to 3.5 and was the most important predictor of this variability. From negative binomial regression, it was estimated that the homicide victim rate among young males increased by 50% for every increase of one point in this ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Classic predictive factors were not associated with homicides in this analysis of state-level variation in Brazil. However, the impunity index indicated that the greater the impunity, the higher the homicide rate.

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7. Fixed-Effects Negative Binomial Regression Models

Sociological Methodology ◽

10.1111/1467-9531.00117 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 32 (1) ◽

pp. 247-265 ◽

Cited By ~ 511

Author(s):

Paul D. Allison ◽

Richard P. Waterman

Keyword(s):

Fixed Effects ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Alternative Methods ◽

Incidental Parameters ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

Downward Bias ◽

Over Dispersion ◽

Poisson Estimator ◽

Deviance Statistic

This paper demonstrates that the conditional negative binomial model for panel data, proposed by Hausman, Hall, and Griliches (1984), is not a true fixed-effects method. This method—which has been implemented in both Stata and LIMDEP—does not in fact control for all stable covariates. Three alternative methods are explored. A negative multinomial model yields the same estimator as the conditional Poisson estimator and hence does not provide any additional leverage for dealing with over-dispersion. On the other hand, a simulation study yields good results from applying an unconditional negative binomial regression estimator with dummy variables to represent the fixed effects. There is no evidence for any incidental parameters bias in the coefficients, and downward bias in the standard error estimates can be easily and effectively corrected using the deviance statistic. Finally, an approximate conditional method is found to perform at about the same level as the unconditional estimator.

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Regulation of highly hazardous pesticides in India - implications for suicide prevention

10.21203/rs.2.15477/v1 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Toby Bonvoisin ◽

Leah Utyasheva ◽

Duleeka Knipe ◽

David Gunnell ◽

Michael Eddleston

Keyword(s):

Negative Binomial ◽

Public Health Problem ◽

State Level ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

World Health ◽

State Governments ◽

Suicide Rates ◽

Level Data ◽

Agricultural Yield ◽

Health Organization

Abstract Background: Pesticide self-poisoning is a common means of suicide in India. Banning highly hazardous pesticides from agricultural use has been successful in reducing total suicide numbers in several South Asian countries without affecting agricultural output. Here, we describe national and state-level regulation of highly hazardous pesticides and relate them to suicide rates across India. Methods: Information on pesticide regulation was collated from agriculture departments of central and state governments. National and state-level data on suicides for 1995 until 2015 was obtained from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB). We used joinpoint analysis and negative binomial regression to investigate the possible effects of pesticide bans on trends in suicide rates. Results: As of August 2019, 314 pesticides were registered for use in India, of which 18 were extremely (Class Ia) or highly (Class Ib) hazardous according to World Health Organization toxicity criteria. Despite many highly hazardous pesticides still being available, a number of bans have been implemented during the period studied. In our quantitative analyses we focussed on the permanent bans in Kerala in 2005 (of endosulfan) and 2011 (of 14 other pesticides); and nationally in 2011 (of endosulfan). NCRB data indicate that pesticides were used in 441,918 reported suicides in India from 1995-2015, 90.3% of which occurred in 11 of the 29 states. Time series analysis demonstrated statistical evidence of lower than expected rates of pesticide suicides and total suicides nationally after the 2011 endosulfan ban. In Kerala, there was a lower than expected rate of pesticide suicides but no change to the already decreasing trend in total suicides after both the 2005 ban of endosulfan and the 2011 ban of 14 pesticides. Discussion: Highly hazardous pesticides continue to be used in India, and pesticide suicide remains a serious public health problem. However, some bans of pesticides do appear to have impacted previous trends in the rates of both pesticide suicides and all suicides. Comprehensive national bans of highly hazardous pesticides could lead to a reduction in suicides across India, in addition to reduced occupational poisoning, with minimal effects on agricultural yield.

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Stillbirths in Germany: On the rise, but no additional increases during the first COVID-19 lockdown

10.31219/osf.io/u2zgq ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Maxi Stella Kniffka ◽

Natalie Nitsche ◽

Roland Rau ◽

Mine Kühn

Keyword(s):

Negative Binomial ◽

Prediction Interval ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Population Level ◽

High Income ◽

Steady Increase ◽

Stillbirth Rate ◽

External Funding ◽

Level Data ◽

Binomial Regression

AbstractBackgroundA growing body of studies on the indirect effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on stillbirths shows mixed and context-dependent evidence, even within high-income countries. We examined possible changes in the stillbirth rate in Germany during the first COVID-19 lockdown.MethodsWe used population-level data on live and stillbirths occurring between January 1995 and July 2020 and applied negative binomial regression to estimate the yearly and monthly stillbirth rate in this period. We compared the actual stillbirth rate to the expected figure for the first seven months of 2020, based on prediction intervals derived from the detected time trend.FindingsWe detected a steady increase in stillbirths in Germany since 2013, which was preceded by a declining (1995-2004), and then plateauing (2005-2012) stillbirth rate. The stillbirth rate for January 2020 through July 2020 (4·148) was slightly lower than the stillbirth rate in the same period in 2019 (4·242). Furthermore, all monthly stillbirth rates during the first half of 2020 lie inside the 95% prediction interval of expected stillbirth rates for this period. Thus, stillbirths in Germany have neither increased nor decreased during the country’s first COVID-19 lockdown period.InterpretationIn contrast to other European countries, stillbirth rates have been on the rise in Germany in the last decade. However, stillbirth rates during the first seven months of 2020 were not higher than expected. Our results suggest that stillbirth rates have neither increased nor decreased during the first-wave COVID-19 lockdown in this high-income setting. Further studies on the causes of the increasing stillbirth trend in Germany are needed, however.Funding statementNo external funding was received for this research.

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