Barthel Index score predicts mortality in elderly heart failure: a goal of comprehensive cardiac rehabilitation

Abstract Background Accurate prediction of mortality in heart failure (HF) patients is crucial for decision-making regarding HF therapies, but a strategy for the prediction of mortality in elderly HF patients has not been established. In addition, although favorable effects of comprehensive cardiac rehabilitation (CR) on clinical outcomes and functional status in HF patients have been demonstrated, a goal of comprehensive CR during hospitalization for reducing mortality remains unclear. Aims We examined whether assessment of basic activities of daily living (ADL) by the Barthel Index (BI), the most widely used tool for assessment of basic ADL, is useful for predicting all-cause mortality in elderly HF patients who received comprehensive CR. Methods This study was a single-center, retrospective and observational study. We retrospectively examined 413 HF patients aged ≥65 years (mean age, 78±7 years; 50% female) who were admitted to our institute for management of HF and received comprehensive CR during hospitalization. Functional status for performing basic ADL ability was assessed by the BI within 3 days before discharge. The clinical endpoint was all-cause death during the follow-up period. Results Of 413 HF patients, 116 patients (28%) died during a follow-up period of median 1.90-years (interquartile range, 1.20–3.23 years). Results of an adjusted dose-dependent association analysis showed that the hazard ratio (HR) of mortality increases in an almost linear fashion as the BI score decreases and that the BI score corresponding the hazard ratio of 1.0 is 85 (Figure A). To minimize the differences in potential confounding factors between patient with low BI (<85) and patients with high BI (≥85), inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) was calculated using propensity score. Kaplan-Meier survival curves, in which selection bias was minimized by use of IPTW for confounders, showed that patients with low BI (<85) had a higher mortality rate than did patients with high BI (≥85) (Figure B). In multivariate Cox regression analyses, low BI was independently associated with higher mortality after adjustment for predictors including brain natriuretic peptide and prior HF hospitalization (IPTW-adjusted HR, 1.75 [95% confidence interval, 1.03–2.98], p<0.001). Inclusion of the BI into the adjustment model improved the accuracy of prediction of mortality (continuous net reclassification improvement, 0.292, p=0.008; integrated discrimination improvement, 0.017, p=0.022). Conclusion A BI score of <85 at the time of discharge is associated with increased mortality independently of known prognostic markers, and achievement of functional status of a BI score ≥85 by comprehensive CR during hospitalization may contribute to a favorable outcome in elderly HF patients. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

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P6209Relationship between skin autofluorescence levels and clinical outcomes in heart failure patients undergoing cardiac rehabilitation

European Heart Journal ◽

10.1093/eurheartj/ehz746.0814 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

M Kunimoto ◽

K Shimada ◽

M Yokoyama ◽

A Honzawa ◽

M Yamada ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Heart Failure ◽

Cardiac Rehabilitation ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Left Ventricular ◽

University Hospital ◽

Left Ventricular Ejection ◽

Skin Autofluorescence ◽

Ventricular Ejection Fraction ◽

All Cause Mortality

Abstract Background Advanced glycation end-products, indicated by skin autofluorescence (SAF) levels, could be prognostic predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) and renal disease. However, the clinical usefulness of SAF levels in patients with heart failure (HF) who underwent cardiac rehabilitation (CR) remains unclear. Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of SAF levels in patients with HF who underwent CR. Methods This study enrolled 204 consecutive patients with HF who had undergone CR at our university hospital between November 2015 and October 2017. Clinical characteristics and anthropometric data were collected at the beginning of CR. SAF levels were noninvasively measured with an autofluorescence reader. The major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) was a composite of all-cause mortality and unplanned hospitalization for HF. Follow-up data concerning primary endpoints were collected until November 2018. Results Patients' mean age was 68.1 years, and 61% were males. Patients were divided into two groups according to the median SAF levels (high and low SAF groups). Patients in the high SAF group were significantly older, had a higher prevalence of chronic kidney disease, and histories of coronary artery bypass surgery; however, there were no significant between-group differences in sex, prevalence of DM, left ventricular ejection fraction, and physical function. During a median follow-up period of 623 days, 25 patients experienced all-cause mortality and 34 were hospitalized for HF. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that patients in the high SAF group had a higher incidence of MACE (log-rank P<0.05), whereas when patients were divided into two groups according to the median hemoglobin A1c level, no significant between-group difference was observed for the incidence of MACE (Figure). After adjusting for confounding factors, Cox regression multivariate analysis revealed that SAF levels were independently associated with the incidence of MACE (hazard ratio: 1.74, 95% confidence interval: 1.12–2.65, P<0.05). Figure 1 Conclusion SAF levels were significantly associated with the incidence of MACE in patients with HF and may be useful for risk stratification in patients with HF who undergo CR.

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Relationship between skin autofluorescence levels and clinical events in patients with heart failure undergoing cardiac rehabilitation

Cardiovascular Diabetology ◽

10.1186/s12933-021-01398-0 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Mitsuhiro Kunimoto ◽

Miho Yokoyama ◽

Kazunori Shimada ◽

Tomomi Matsubara ◽

Tatsuro Aikawa ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Heart Failure ◽

Cardiac Rehabilitation ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Left Ventricular ◽

Left Ventricular Ejection ◽

Skin Autofluorescence ◽

Ventricular Ejection Fraction ◽

Patients With Heart Failure ◽

All Cause Mortality

Abstract Background Advanced glycation end-products, indicated by skin autofluorescence (SAF) levels, could be prognostic predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) and renal disease. However, the clinical usefulness of SAF levels in patients with heart failure (HF) who underwent cardiac rehabilitation (CR) remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the associations between SAF and MACE risk in patients with HF who underwent CR. Methods This study enrolled 204 consecutive patients with HF who had undergone CR at our university hospital between November 2015 and October 2017. Clinical characteristics and anthropometric data were collected at the beginning of CR. SAF levels were noninvasively measured with an autofluorescence reader. Major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) was a composite of all-cause mortality and unplanned hospitalization for HF. Follow-up data concerning primary endpoints were collected until November 2017. Results Patients’ mean age was 68.1 years, and 61% were male. Patients were divided into two groups according to the median SAF levels (High and Low SAF groups). Patients in the High SAF group were significantly older, had a higher prevalence of chronic kidney disease, and more frequently had history of coronary artery bypass surgery; however, there were no significant between-group differences in sex, prevalence of DM, left ventricular ejection fraction, and physical function. During a mean follow-up period of 590 days, 18 patients had all-cause mortality and 36 were hospitalized for HF. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that patients in the high SAF group had a higher incidence of MACE (log-rank P < 0.05). After adjusting for confounding factors, Cox regression multivariate analysis revealed that SAF levels were independently associated with the incidence of MACE (odds ratio, 1.86; 95% confidence interval, 1.08–3.12; P = 0.03). Conclusion SAF levels were significantly associated with the incidence of MACE in patients with HF and may be useful for risk stratification in patients with HF who underwent CR.

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Abstract 3395: Potassium Supplement Use May Increase Hospitalization without Affecting Mortality in Chronic Heart Failure: Implications for Use of Aldosterone Antagonists to Maintain Potassium Balance in Chronic Heart Failure

Circulation ◽

10.1161/circ.116.suppl_16.ii_766-c ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 116 (suppl_16) ◽

Author(s):

Ali Ahmed ◽

Chris Adamopoulos ◽

Xuemei Sui ◽

Thomas E Love

Keyword(s):

Heart Failure ◽

Chronic Heart Failure ◽

Propensity Scores ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Hazard Ratio ◽

Aldosterone Antagonists ◽

Potassium Supplement ◽

Supplement Use ◽

Group Trial

Background: Hypokalemia is common in heart failure (HF). Aldosterone antagonists can raise serum potassium (K) and also improve survival. Yet, K-supplements are often used to correct hypokalemia; although little is known about the effects of K-supplements in HF. Methods: Of the 7788 ambulatory chronic HF patients in the Digitalis Investigation Group trial, 2199 (28%) were receiving K-supplements. Propensity scores for K-supplement use was calculated for each patient and were used to match 2131 patients receiving K-supplements with 2131 no-K-supplements patients (absolute standardized differences <10% for all measured covariates). Matched Cox regression models were used to estimate effects of K-supplements on outcomes during 40 months of median follow-up. Results: Compared with 68% (rate, 4120/10000 person-years) of no-K-supplement patients, 71% (rate, 4777/10000 person-years) of patients receiving K-supplements were hospitalized from all causes (hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.05–1.26; P=0.004). Compared with 38% (rate, 1313/10000 person-years) of no-K-supplement patients, 38% (rate, 1327/10000 person-years) of patients receiving K-supplements died from all causes (hazard ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.94–1.18; P=0.390). Conclusion: K-supplement use was associated with no mortality reduction but increased hospitalization. This first report on the effect of K-supplement in HF raises question about the wisdom of K-supplement use to correct hypokalemia and maintain normokalemia in HF. Given the proven mortality benefits of aldosterone antagonists and their ability to raise serum K, spironolactone may be preferable to maintain normokalemia in chronic HF. Figure 1. Association of potassium supplement use and all-cause hospitalization

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Predicting long-term cardiovascular outcomes of patients with acute myocardial infarction using soluble ST2

Hormone Molecular Biology and Clinical Investigation ◽

10.1515/hmbci-2019-0062 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 0 (0) ◽

Author(s):

Mustafa Umut Somuncu ◽

Belma Kalayci ◽

Ahmet Avci ◽

Tunahan Akgun ◽

Huseyin Karakurt ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Myocardial Infarction ◽

Heart Failure ◽

Cox Regression ◽

High Serum ◽

Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events ◽

Lower Systolic Blood Pressure ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Killip Class ◽

Target Vessel Revascularization

AbstractBackgroundThe increase in soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2) both in the diagnosis and prognosis of heart failure is well established; however, existing data regarding sST2 values as the prognostic marker after myocardial infarction (MI) are limited and have been conflicting. This study aimed to assess the clinical significance of sST2 in predicting 1-year adverse cardiovascular (CV) events in MI patients.Materials and methodsIn this prospective study, 380 MI patients were included. Participants were grouped into low sST2 (n = 264, mean age: 60.0 ± 12.1 years) and high sST2 groups (n = 116, mean age: 60.5 ± 11.6 years), and all study populations were followed up for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) which are composed of CV mortality, target vessel revascularization (TVR), non-fatal reinfarction, stroke and heart failure.ResultsDuring a 12-month follow-up, 68 (17.8%) patients had MACE. CV mortality and heart failure were significantly higher in the high sST2 group compared to the low sST2 group (15.5% vs. 4.9%, p = 0.001 and 8.6% vs. 3.4% p = 0.032, respectively). Multivariate Cox regression analysis concluded that high serum sST2 independently predicted 1-year CV mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 2.263, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.124–4.557, p = 0.022)]. Besides, older age, Killip class >1, left anterior descending (LAD) as the culprit artery and lower systolic blood pressure were the other independent risk factors for 1-year CV mortality.ConclusionsHigh sST2 levels are an important predictor of MACE, including CV mortality and heart failure in a 1-year follow-up period in MI patients.

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Falls Predict Acute Hospitalization in Parkinson’s Disease

Journal of Parkinson s Disease ◽

10.3233/jpd-212539 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-20

Author(s):

Diego Santos García ◽

Teresa de Deus Fonticoba ◽

Carlos Cores ◽

Ester Suárez Castro ◽

Jorge Hernández Vara ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Parkinson’S Disease ◽

Parkinson's Disease ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Independent Predictor ◽

Hazard Ratio ◽

Acute Hospitalization ◽

Baseline Visit ◽

Kaplan Meier ◽

Non Motor Symptoms

Background: There is a need for identifying risk factors for hospitalization in Parkinson’s disease (PD) and also interventions to reduce acute hospital admission. Objective: To analyze the frequency, causes, and predictors of acute hospitalization (AH) in PD patients from a Spanish cohort. Methods: PD patients recruited from 35 centers of Spain from the COPPADIS-2015 (COhort of Patients with PArkinson’s DIsease in Spain, 2015) cohort from January 2016 to November 2017, were included in the study. In order to identify predictors of AH, Kaplan-Meier estimates of factors considered as potential predictors were obtained and Cox regression performed on time to hospital encounter 1-year after the baseline visit. Results: Thirty-five out of 605 (5.8%) PD patients (62.5±8.9 years old; 59.8% males) presented an AH during the 1-year follow-up after the baseline visit. Traumatic falls represented the most frequent cause of admission, being 23.7% of all acute hospitalizations. To suffer from motor fluctuations (HR [hazard ratio] 2.461; 95% CI, 1.065–5.678; p = 0.035), a very severe non-motor symptoms burden (HR [hazard ratio] 2.828; 95% CI, 1.319–6.063; p = 0.008), falls (HR 3.966; 95% CI 1.757–8.470; p = 0.001), and dysphagia (HR 2.356; 95% CI 1.124–4.941; p = 0.023) was associated with AH after adjustment to age, gender, disease duration, levodopa equivalent daily dose, total number of non-antiparkinsonian drugs, and UPDRS-IIIOFF. Of the previous variables, only falls (HR 2.998; 95% CI 1.080–8.322; p = 0.035) was an independent predictor of AH. Conclusion: Falls is an independent predictor of AH in PD patients.

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Evaluation of different late left ventricular remodeling definitions for predicting long-term outcomes in acute myocardial infarction patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

European Heart Journal ◽

10.1093/eurheartj/ehab724.1486 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

S Zhang ◽

X Xie ◽

C He ◽

X Lin ◽

M Luo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Heart Failure ◽

Ventricular Remodeling ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Left Ventricular Remodeling ◽

Left Ventricular ◽

Long Term Outcomes ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Long Term Mortality

Abstract Background Late left ventricular remodeling (LLVR) after the index acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a common complication, and is associated with poor outcome. However, the optimal definition of LLVR has been debated because of its different incidence and influence on prognosis. At present, there are limited data regarding the influence of different LLVR definitions on long-term outcomes in AMI patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Purpose To explore the impact of different definitions of LLVR on long-term mortality, re-hospitalization or an urgent visit for heart failure, and identify which definition was more suitable for predicting long-term outcomes in AMI patients undergoing PCI. Methods We prospectively observed 460 consenting first-time AMI patients undergoing PCI from January 2012 to December 2018. LLVR was defined as a ≥20% increase in left ventricular end-diastolic volume (LVEDV), or a >15% increase in left ventricular end-systolic volume (LVESV) from the initial presentation to the 3–12 months follow-up, or left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <50% at follow up. These parameters of the cardiac structure and function were measuring through the thoracic echocardiography. The association of LLVR with long-term prognosis was investigated by Cox regression analysis. Results The incidence rate of LLVR was 38.1% (n=171). The occurrence of LLVR according to LVESV, LVEDV and LVEF definition were 26.6% (n=117), 31.9% (n=142) and 11.5% (n=51), respectively. During a median follow-up of 2 years, after adjusting other potential risk factors, multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed LLVR of LVESV definition [hazard ratio (HR): 2.50, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19–5.22, P=0.015], LLVR of LVEF definition (HR: 16.46, 95% CI: 6.96–38.92, P<0.001) and LLVR of Mix definition (HR: 5.86, 95% CI: 2.45–14.04, P<0.001) were risk factors for long-term mortality, re-hospitalization or an urgent visit for heart failure. But only LLVR of LVEF definition was a risk predictor for long-term mortality (HR: 6.84, 95% CI: 1.98–23.65, P=0.002). Conclusions LLVR defined by LVESV or LVEF may be more suitable for predicting long-term mortality, re-hospitalization or an urgent visit for heart failure in AMI patients undergoing PCI. However, only LLVR defined by LVEF could be used for predicting long-term mortality. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Association Between LLVR and outcomes Kaplan-Meier Estimates of the Mortality

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Shortened Relative Leukocyte Telomere Length is Associated with Prevalent and Incident Cardiovascular Complications in Type 2 Diabetes- Analysis from the Hong Kong Diabetes Register

10.2337/figshare.12498335 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Feifei Cheng ◽

Andrea O Luk ◽

Claudia HT Tam ◽

Baoqi Fan ◽

Hongjiang Wu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Type 2 Diabetes ◽

Hong Kong ◽

Telomere Length ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction ◽

Hazard Ratio ◽

Chinese Patients ◽

Diabetes Register

Objective: Several studies support potential links between leukocyte relative telomere length (rLTL), a biomarker of biological aging and type 2 diabetes. This study investigates relationships between rLTL and subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with type 2 diabetes. Research design and methods: Consecutive Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes (N=5349) from the Hong Kong Diabetes Register with stored baseline DNA and available follow-up data were studied. rLTL was measured using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. CVD was diagnosed based on ICD-9 code. Results: Mean (SD) follow-up was 13.4(5.5) years. rLTL was correlated inversely with age, diabetes duration, blood pressure, HbA1c, urine ACR and positively with eGFR (all P<0.001). Subjects with versus without CVD at baseline had shorter rLTL (4.3±1.2 vs. 4.6±1.2, P<0.001). Of the 4541 CVD-free subjects at baseline, the 1140 who developed CVD during follow-up had shorter rLTL than those remaining CVD-free after adjusting for age, sex, smoking and albuminuria status (4.3±1.2 vs. 4.7±1.2, P<0.001). In Cox regression models, shorter rLTL was associated with higher risk of incident CVD (hazard ratio (95% CI) for each unit decrease: 1.252 (1.195-1.311), P<0.001), which remained significant after adjusting for age, sex, BMI, SBP, LDL-C, HbA1c, eGFR and ACR (hazard ratio (95% CI): 1.141 (1.084-1.200), P<0.001). Conclusions: rLTL is significantly shorter in type 2 diabetes patients with CVD, is associated with cardiometabolic risk factors, and is independently associated with incident CVD. Telomere length may be a useful biomarker for CVD risk in type 2 diabetes.

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Serum Magnesium Is Inversely Associated With Heart Failure, Atrial Fibrillation, and Microvascular Complications in Type 2 Diabetes

10.2337/figshare.14573631.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Lynette J. Oost ◽

Amber A.W.A. van der Heijden ◽

Emma A. Vermeulen ◽

Caro Bos ◽

Petra J.M. Elders ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Heart Failure ◽

Atrial Fibrillation ◽

Diabetic Retinopathy ◽

Glycemic Control ◽

Diabetic Foot ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Microvascular Complications ◽

Serum Magnesium ◽

Baseline Serum

Objective We investigated whether serum magnesium (Mg2+) was prospectively associated with macro- or microvascular complications and mediated by glycemic control (Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c)), in T2D. Research Design and Methods We analyzed in 4,348 participants the association of serum Mg2+ with macrovascular disease and mortality (acute myocardial infarction (AMI), coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure (HF), cerebrovascular accident (CVA), peripheral arterial disease (PAD)), atrial fibrillation (AF) and microvascular complications (chronic kidney disease (CKD), diabetic retinopathy and diabetic foot) using Cox regression, adjusted for confounders. Mediation analysis was performed to assess whether HbA1c mediated these associations. Results The average baseline serum Mg2+ concentration was 0.80 ± 0.08 mmol/L. Serum Mg2+ was during 6.1 years of follow-up inversely associated with major macrovascular 0.87 (95% CI: 0.76; 1.00), HF 0.76 (95% CI: 0.62; 0.93) and AF 0.59 (95% CI: 0.49; 0.72). Serum Mg2+ was not associated with AMI, CHD, CVA and PAD. Serum Mg2+ was during 5.1 years of follow-up inversely associated with overall microvascular events 0.85 (95% CI: 0.78; 0.91), 0.89 (95% CI: 0.82; 0.96) for CKD, 0.77 (95% CI: 0.61; 0.98) for diabetic retinopathy and 0.85 (95% CI: 0.78; 0.92) for diabetic foot. HbA1c mediated the associations of serum Mg2+ with HF, overall microvascular events, diabetic retinopathy and diabetic foot. Conclusions Serum Mg2+ concentration is inversely associated with the risk to develop HF, AF and with the occurrence of CKD, diabetic retinopathy and foot complications, in T2D. Glycemic control partially mediated the association of serum Mg2+ with HF and microvascular complications.

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Abstract P382: Fried Food Consumption is Associated with a Higher Risk of Heart Failure among US Male Physicians

Circulation ◽

10.1161/circ.131.suppl_1.p382 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 131 (suppl_1) ◽

Author(s):

Luc Djousse ◽

Andrew Petrone ◽

John M Gaziano

Keyword(s):

Heart Failure ◽

Food Intake ◽

Food Consumption ◽

Prospective Cohort ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Health Study ◽

Median Frequency ◽

Fried Food ◽

Hazard Ratios

Background: While previous studies have reported a positive relation of fried food consumption with type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and obesity, no previous study has examined the relation of total fried food intake with risk of heart failure (HF) in a prospective cohort. Objective: To test the hypothesis that fried food consumption is positively associated with risk of HF in male physicians. Methods: A prospective cohort of 19,968 participants from the Physicians’ Health Study. Frequency of fried food consumption was assessed between 1999 and 2002 using a food frequency questionnaire and HF was ascertained through annual follow-up questionnaires with validation in a subsample. We used Cox regression to estimate multivariable adjusted hazard ratios of HF. Results: During a median follow-up of 10.6 years, 862 cases of HF occurred. The mean age at baseline was 66.4 ± 9.2 years. Median frequency of fried food consumption was <1 time per week. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) were: 1.0 (ref), 1.18 (1.01-1.37), 1.25 (1.02-1.54), and 1.68 (1.19-2.36) for fried food consumption of <1/week, 1-3/week, 4-6/week, and 7+/week, respectively (p for linear trend: 0.0004), after adjustment for age, alcohol use, smoking, exercise, and history of myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass graph or angioplasty (Fig). Additional adjustment of total trans fats did not alter the findings. In a secondary analysis, body mass index did not modify the relation of fried foods with HF risk. Conclusions: Our data show a positive association between fried food intake and risk of HF in US male physicians.

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P1885Cha2ds-2vasc score lacks of ability to predict mortality in patients attending the emergency department with atrial fibrillation in the presence of troponin i

European Heart Journal ◽

10.1093/eurheartj/ehz748.0633 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

M I Gonzalez Del Hoyo ◽

G Cediel ◽

A Carrasquer ◽

G Bonet ◽

K Vasquez-Nunez ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Heart Failure ◽

Atrial Fibrillation ◽

Emergency Department ◽

Regression Analysis ◽

Troponin I ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

All Cause Mortality

Abstract Background CHA2DS2-VASc score has been used as a surrogate marker for predicting outcomes beyond thromboembolic risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Likewise, cardiac troponin I (cTnI) is a predictor of mortality in AF. Purpose This study aimed to investigate the association of cTnI and CHA2DS2-VASc score with long-term prognosis in patients admitted to the emergency department with AF. Methods A retrospective cohort study conducted between January 2012 and December 2013, enrolling patients admitted to the emergency department with AF and having documented cTnI measurements. CHA2DS2-VASc score was estimated. Primary endpoint was 5-year all-cause mortality, readmission for heart failure (HF), readmission for myocardial infarction (MI) and the composite end point of major adverse cardiac events defined as death, readmission for HF or readmission for MI (MACE). Results A total of 578 patients with AF were studied, of whom 252 patients had elevated levels of cTnI (43.6%) and 334 patients had CHA2DS2-VASc score >3 (57.8%). Patients with elevated cTnI tended to be oldercompared with those who did not have cTnI elevation and were more frequently comorbid and of higher ischemic risk, including hypertension, prior MI, prior HF, chronic renal failure and peripheral artery disease. The overall median CHA2DS2-VASc score was higher in those with cTnI elevation compared to those patients elevated cTnI levels (4.2 vs 3.3 points, p<0.001). Main diagnoses at hospital discharge were tachyarrhythmia 30.3%, followed by heart failure 17.7%, respiratory infections 9.5% and acute coronary syndrome 7.3%. At 5-year follow-up, all-cause death was significantly higher for patients with cTnI elevation compared with those who did not have cTnI elevation (56.4% vs. 27%; logrank test p<0.001). Specifically, for readmissions for HF and readmissions for MI there were no differences in between patients with or without cTnI elevation. In addition, MACE was reached in 165 patients (65.5%) with cTnI elevation, compare to 126 patients (38.7%) without cTnI elevation (p<0.001). On multivariable Cox regression analysis, cTnI elevation was an independent predictor of all-cause death (hazard ratio, 1.67, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.24–2.26, p=0.001) and of MACE (hazard ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.15–1.88; P=0.002), but it did not reach statistical significance for readmissions for MI and readmissions for HF. CHA2DS2-VASc score was a predictor on univariate Cox regression analysis for each endpoint, but it did not reach significance on multivariable Cox regression analysis for any endpoint. Conclusions cTnI is independently associated with long-term all-cause mortality in patients attending the emergency department with AF. cTnI compared to CHA2DS2-VASc score is thus a biomarker with predictive capacity for mortality in late follow-up, conferring utility in the risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation.

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