scholarly journals Apparent earthquake rupture predictability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Men-Andrin Meier ◽  
Jean-Paul Ampuero ◽  
Elizabeth Cochran ◽  
Morgan Page
Keyword(s):  
Selection Bias ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Earthquake Rupture ◽  
Initial Portion ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
The Future

Summary To what extent can the future evolution of an ongoing earthquake rupture be predicted? This question of fundamental scientific and practical importance has recently been addressed by studies of teleseismic source time functions (STFs) but reaching contrasting conclusions. One study concludes that the initial portion of STFs is the same regardless of magnitude. Another study concludes that the rate at which earthquakes grow increases systematically and strongly with final event magnitudes. Here we show that the latter reported trend is caused by a selection bias towards events with unusually long durations, and by estimates of STF growth made when the STF is already decaying. If these invalid estimates are left out, the trend is no longer present, except during the first few seconds of the smallest events in the dataset, Mw5–6.5, for which the reliability of the STF amplitudes is questionable. Simple synthetic tests show that the observations are consistent with statistically indistinguishable growth of smaller and larger earthquakes. A much weaker trend is apparent among events of comparable duration, but we argue that its significance is not resolvable by the current data. Finally, we propose a nomenclature to facilitate further discussions of earthquake rupture predictability and determinism.

On the identity of socialism in modern China

2019 ◽  
pp. 75-89
Author(s):  
A.B. Lyubinin
Keyword(s):  
Economic System ◽  
Modern China ◽  
Soviet Society ◽  
Chinese Society ◽  
Transitional Form ◽  
Global Development ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
The Future ◽  
Marxist Concept

The article comments on the concept of «socialism with Chinese specificity», which forms the ideological basis of the «Chinese miracle». The ideological origins of this concept, starting with Confucianism, are revealed. It has evolved to become increasingly pragmatic and to adapt to the realities of national and global development. The relation of this concept with the Marxist concept of socialism is shown. The article substantiates the fundamental theoretical thesis that in the objective-essential sense (in the elimination of, in particular, national specifics) Chinese society is a transitional form to socialism (a certain analogue of the Soviet society of the NEP period). The author talks about a «heterogeneous», «mixed» socio-economic system, the vector and nature of the future evolution of which will depend crucially on the strategic course of the CPC.

scholarly journals Are we observing an NSC in course of formation in the NGC 4654 galaxy?

2021 ◽  
Vol 503 (1) ◽  
pp. 594-602
Author(s):  
R Schiavi ◽  
R Capuzzo-Dolcetta ◽  
I Y Georgiev ◽  
M Arca-Sedda ◽  
A Mastrobuono-Battisti
Keyword(s):  
Central Zone ◽  
Effective Radius ◽  
Host Galaxy ◽  
Galactic Centre ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Orbital Parameters ◽  
Relative Orbit ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Galaxy ◽  
Massive Clusters

ABSTRACT We use direct N-body simulations to explore some possible scenarios for the future evolution of two massive clusters observed towards the centre of NGC 4654, a spiral galaxy with mass similar to that of the Milky Way. Using archival HST data, we obtain the photometric masses of the two clusters, M = 3 × 105 M⊙ and M = 1.7 × 106 M⊙, their half-light radii, Reff ∼ 4 pc and Reff ∼ 6 pc, and their projected distances from the photometric centre of the galaxy (both <22 pc). The knowledge of the structure and separation of these two clusters (∼24 pc) provides a unique view for studying the dynamics of a galactic central zone hosting massive clusters. Varying some of the unknown cluster orbital parameters, we carry out several N-body simulations showing that the future evolution of these clusters will inevitably result in their merger. We find that, mainly depending on the shape of their relative orbit, they will merge into the galactic centre in less than 82 Myr. In addition to the tidal interaction, a proper consideration of the dynamical friction braking would shorten the merging times up to few Myr. We also investigate the possibility to form a massive nuclear star cluster (NSC) in the centre of the galaxy by this process. Our analysis suggests that for low-eccentricity orbits, and relatively long merger times, the final merged cluster is spherical in shape, with an effective radius of few parsecs and a mass within the effective radius of the order of $10^5\, \mathrm{M_{\odot }}$. Because the central density of such a cluster is higher than that of the host galaxy, it is likely that this merger remnant could be the likely embryo of a future NSC.

scholarly journals Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 2693-2719 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Marmy ◽  
Jan Rajczak ◽  
Reynald Delaloye ◽  
Christin Hilbich ◽  
Martin Hoelzle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Calibration Method ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Automated Calibration ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Permafrost is a widespread phenomenon in mountainous regions of the world such as the European Alps. Many important topics such as the future evolution of permafrost related to climate change and the detection of permafrost related to potential natural hazards sites are of major concern to our society. Numerical permafrost models are the only tools which allow for the projection of the future evolution of permafrost. Due to the complexity of the processes involved and the heterogeneity of Alpine terrain, models must be carefully calibrated, and results should be compared with observations at the site (borehole) scale. However, for large-scale applications, a site-specific model calibration for a multitude of grid points would be very time-consuming. To tackle this issue, this study presents a semi-automated calibration method using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) as implemented in a 1-D soil model (CoupModel) and applies it to six permafrost sites in the Swiss Alps. We show that this semi-automated calibration method is able to accurately reproduce the main thermal condition characteristics with some limitations at sites with unique conditions such as 3-D air or water circulation, which have to be calibrated manually. The calibration obtained was used for global and regional climate model (GCM/RCM)-based long-term climate projections under the A1B climate scenario (EU-ENSEMBLES project) specifically downscaled at each borehole site. The projection shows general permafrost degradation with thawing at 10 m, even partially reaching 20 m depth by the end of the century, but with different timing among the sites and with partly considerable uncertainties due to the spread of the applied climatic forcing.

scholarly journals Combination Therapy in Moderate to Severe Alzheimer’s Disease - Overview and Discussion Points for the Future

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 228
Author(s):  
José L Molinuevo ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Alzheimer’S Disease ◽  
Alzheimer's Disease ◽  
Combination Therapy ◽  
Receptor Antagonist ◽  
Cholinesterase Inhibitors ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Aspartate Receptor ◽  
The Future

Two effective symptomatic therapies are available for Alzheimer’s disease: the cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs) and memantine, an N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor antagonist. Current data demonstrate that combination therapy with memantine and a ChEI produces symptomatic benefits in all domains of AD. The benefits of combination therapy are greater than those of ChEI monotherapy, are sustained long term and appear to increase with time.

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