scholarly journals Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in individuals without traditional risk factors: development and validation of a novel risk score

2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (5) ◽  
pp. 1562-1571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dong Hyun Sinn ◽  
Danbee Kang ◽  
Soo Jin Cho ◽  
Seung Woon Paik ◽  
Eliseo Guallar ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Although hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurs mostly in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection or heavy alcohol use or cirrhosis, some patients develop HCC without these risk factors. Our objective in this study was to develop and validate a new HCC risk score that could stratify HCC risk in patients who develop HCC without known risk factors. Methods A new HCC risk score was developed using a nationwide, population-based cohort among individuals without chronic HBV infection, chronic HCV infection, heavy alcohol use or cirrhosis (n = 467 206, derivation cohort). The performance of the HCC risk score was validated using an independent Samsung Medical Center Health Promotion Center cohort (n = 91 357, validation cohort). Results Multivariable Cox regression analysis identified six independent risk factors: age, sex, smoking, diabetes, total cholesterol level and serum alanine aminotransferase level. A 19-point scale for HCC risk score was developed, with 10-year risk of HCC ranging from 0.0% to 6.16% for the lowest and highest risk scores, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values (AUROCs) to predict HCC development were 0.83 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.77, 0.88)] and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.89, 0.95) at 10 years in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Predicted risk was well correlated with the Kaplan-Meier observed HCC risk. Conclusions A simple-to-use, novel HCC risk score was developed for predicting HCC development in individuals without alleged risk factors. It can be used to assess the risk of HCC in this population so that decisions about their clinical management, including risk reduction interventions, can be subsequently made.

2013 ◽  
Vol 132 (3) ◽  
pp. 571-579 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier A. Cepeda ◽  
Linda M. Niccolai ◽  
Ksenia Eritsyan ◽  
Robert Heimer ◽  
Olga Levina

Addiction ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 110 (11) ◽  
pp. 1746-1756 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Foster ◽  
Leonhard Held ◽  
Natalia Estévez ◽  
Gerhard Gmel ◽  
Meichun Mohler‐Kuo

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa-Ann Wuermser ◽  
Sara J. Achenbach ◽  
Shreyasee Amin ◽  
Sundeep Khosla ◽  
L. Joseph Melton

To address the epidemiology of rib fractures, an age- and sex-stratified random sample of 699 Rochester, Minnesota, adults age 21–93 years was followed in a long-term prospective study. Bone mineral density (BMD) was assessed at baseline, and fractures were ascertained by periodic interview and medical record review. During 8560 person-years of followup (median, 13.9 years), 56 subjects experienced 67 rib fracture episodes. Risk factors for falling predicted rib fractures as well as BMD, but both were strongly age-related. After age-adjustment, BMD was associated with rib fractures in women but not men. Importantly, rib fractures attributed to severe trauma were associated with BMD in older individuals of both sexes. Self-reported heavy alcohol use doubled fracture risk but did not achieve significance due to limited statistical power. Bone density, along with heavy alcohol use and other risk factors for falling, contributes to the risk of rib fractures, but no one factor predominates. Older women with rib fractures, regardless of cause, should be considered for an osteoporosis evaluation, and strategies to prevent falling should be considered in both sexes.


2021 ◽  
pp. 088626052198973
Author(s):  
Hailee K. Dunn ◽  
Deborah N. Pearlman ◽  
Madeline C. Montgomery ◽  
Lindsay M. Orchowski

Research demonstrates that both peer socialization and underage drinking play a significant role in teen dating violence. However, less is known about the lasting effects of these risk factors on boys’ ability to form healthy romantic relationships as they get older. The present study examined whether boys who perceived their peers would respect them more for having sex and those who engaged in past year heavy alcohol use would be more likely to perpetrate sexual intimate partner violence (IPV) in young adulthood compared to boys who did not endorse perceived peer approval for sex or report past year heavy drinking. Analyses were conducted using a sample of boys ( n = 1,189) from Waves I and III of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health). A logistic regression was conducted to assess the relationship between perceived peer approval to have sex and heavy alcohol use at Wave I and sexual IPV at Wave III, after adjusting for demographic factors and other correlates of sexual IPV at Wave I, including age, race/ethnicity, sexual initiation in adolescence, parental attachment, annual family income, and neighborhood poverty. Boys who believed they would gain peer respect by having sex and boys who reported getting drunk in the last 12 months, regardless of how often, were significantly more likely to report sexual IPV in young adulthood compared to boys who did not endorse either of these factors. Targeting boys’ perceived peer norms regarding sexual activity and heavy alcohol use may therefore be especially important for preventing sexual IPV later in life.


2005 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHANNES C. ROTHLIND ◽  
TANYA M. GREENFIELD ◽  
ANNE V. BRUCE ◽  
DIETER J. MEYERHOFF ◽  
DEREK L. FLENNIKEN ◽  
...  

Higher rates of alcohol use have been reported in HIV+ individuals compared to the general population. Both heavy alcohol use and HIV infection are associated with increased risk of neuropsychological (NP) impairment. We examined effects of heavy active alcohol use and HIV on NP functioning in a large sample of community-residing HIV+ individuals and HIV− controls. The four main study groups included 72 HIV− light/non-drinkers, 70 HIV− heavy drinkers (>100 drinks per month), 70 HIV+ light/non-drinkers, and 56 HIV+ heavy drinkers. The heavy drinking group was further subdivided to assess effects of the heaviest levels of active alcohol use (>6 drinks per day) on NP functioning. A comprehensive NP battery was administered. Multivariate analysis of covariance was employed to examine the effect of HIV and alcohol on NP functioning after adjusting for group differences in age and estimated premorbid verbal intellectual functioning. The analyses identified main effects of heavy drinking and HIV on NP function, with greatest effects involving the contrast of HIV+ heavy drinkers and the HIV− light drinkers. Synergistic effects of heaviest current drinking and HIV infection were identified in analyses of motor and visuomotor speed. Supplementary analyses also revealed better NP function in the HIV+ group with antiretroviral treatment (ART) and lower level of viral burden, a finding that was consistent across levels of alcohol consumption. Finally, heavy alcohol use and executive functioning difficulties were associated with lower levels of self-reported medication adherence in the HIV+ group. The findings suggest that active heavy alcohol use and HIV infection have additive adverse effects on NP function, that they may show synergistic effects in circumstances of very heavy active alcohol use, and that heavy drinking and executive functioning may mediate health-related behaviors in HIV disease. (JINS, 2005, 11, 70–83.)


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