scholarly journals Structural Change and Global Trade

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Logan T Lewis ◽  
Ryan Monarch ◽  
Michael Sposi ◽  
Jing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Trade Costs ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Welfare Gains ◽  
Services Trade ◽  
The Past ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The World

Abstract Services, which are less traded than goods, rose from 55% of world expenditure in 1970 to 75% in 2015. Using a Ricardian trade model incorporating endogenous structural change, we quantify how this substantial shift in consumption has affected trade. Without structural change, we find that the world trade to GDP ratio would be 13 percentage points higher by 2015, about half the boost delivered from declining trade costs. In addition, a world without structural change would have had about 40% greater welfare gains from the trade integration over the past four decades. Absent further reductions in trade costs, ongoing structural change implies that world trade as a share of GDP would eventually decline. Going forward, higher income countries gain relatively more from reducing services trade costs than from reducing goods trade costs.

scholarly journals The Global Welfare Impact of China: Trade Integration and Technological Change

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 153-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian di Giovanni ◽  
Andrei A. Levchenko ◽  
Jing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Technological Change ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Welfare Gains ◽  
Welfare Impact ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Welfare ◽  
Catch Up

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a multi-country quantitative Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model. We simulate two alternative growth scenarios: a “balanced” one in which China's productivity grows at the same rate in each sector, and an “unbalanced” one in which China's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to the world productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson 2004), the large majority of countries experience significantly larger welfare gains when China's productivity growth is biased toward its comparative disadvantage sectors. This finding is driven by the inherently multilateral nature of world trade. (JEL F14, F43, 019, 033, 047, P24, P33)

scholarly journals Theoretical and Empirical Characterization of Water as a Factor: Examples and Related Issues with the World Trade Model

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 459
Author(s):  
Ignacio Cazcarro ◽  
Albert E. Steenge
Keyword(s):  
World Trade ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Virtual Water ◽  
Considerable Change ◽  
Water Research ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Main Model ◽  
Selection Of

This article originates from the theoretical and empirical characterization of factors in the World Trade Model (WTM). It first illustrates the usefulness of this type of model for water research to address policy questions related to virtual water trade, water constraints and water scarcity. It also illustrates the importance of certain key decisions regarding the heterogeneity of water and its relation to the technologies being employed and the prices obtained. With regard to WTM, the global economic input–output model in which multiple technologies can produce a “homogeneous output”, it was recently shown that two different mechanisms should be distinguished by which multiple technologies can arise, i.e., from “technology-specific” or from “shared” factors, which implies a mechanism-specific set of prices, quantities and rents. We discuss and extend these characterizations, notably in relation to the real-world characterization of water as a factor (for which we use the terms technology specific, fully shared and “mixed”). We propose that the presence of these separate mechanisms results in the models being sensitive to relatively small variations in specific numerical values. To address this sensitivity, we suggest a specific role for specific (sub)models or key choices to counter unrealistic model outcomes. To support our proposal we present a selection of simulations for aggregated world regions, and show how key results concerning quantities, prices and rents can be subject to considerable change depending on the precise definitions of resource endowments and the technology-specificity of the factors. For instance, depending on the adopted water heterogeneity level, outcomes can vary from relatively low-cost solutions to higher cost ones and can even reach infeasibility. In the main model discussed here (WTM) factor prices are exogenous, which also contributes to the overall numerical sensitivity of the model. All this affects to a large extent our interpretation of the water challenges, which preferably need to be assessed in integrated frameworks, to account for the main socioeconomic variables, technologies and resources.

The World Economy

2003 ◽  
Vol 185 ◽  
pp. 9-16
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
World Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Dollar Depreciation

The outlook for world growth this year has deteriorated since April, due to a sharp contraction in world trade in the first quarter of the year and failure to sustain the revival in private sector investment seen in the fourth quarter of 2002. We have as a consequence revised our projections for world growth this year down by ¼ percentage point. This reflects sharp downward revisions of ½–¾ percentage points in the Euro Area and Canada, both of whose exchange rates have continued to appreciate in effective terms, while the outlook for the US and Japan is broadly unchanged. Growth in Japan and the Euro Area stagnated in the first half of 2003, with recessions in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Austria appearing likely. The US and Canada, on the other hand, continued to expand, albeit more slowly than in the second half of 2002. Following two years of exceptional weakness, Latin American growth has started to revive, although Venezuela is still suffering from the 2 month stoppage in the oil industry earlier this year and Argentina has lost competitiveness due to a strong appreciation against the dollar. Growth has slowed in several Asian economies, notably South Korea, but China continues to expand rapidly, spurred by the competitiveness impact of the dollar depreciation and infrastructure preparations for the 2008 Olympics. This has helped sustain export growth from the rest of Asia despite the more widespread slowdown in world trade.

scholarly journals Towards a plurilateral Trade in Services Agreement (TISA): Challenges and prospects

2014 ◽  
Vol 05 (01) ◽  
pp. 1440006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Sauvé
Keyword(s):  
World Trade ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade In Services ◽  
Policy Area ◽  
Forward Movement ◽  
Preferential Trade Agreement ◽  
Services Trade ◽  
Development Agenda ◽  
Systemic Risks ◽  
The World

This paper addresses a number of policy challenges arising from ongoing attempts to negotiate a plurilateral Trade in Services Agreement (TISA), a recently launched plurilateral negotiating initiative coexisting uneasily alongside the World Trade Organisation's General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), particularly in the context of the ongoing Doha Development Agenda. While the TISA offers scope for imparting much needed forward movement to a policy area of central economy-wide and trade importance, such progress, even if realized within the narrower confines of a preferential trade agreement made possible under the GATS, poses a number of systemic risks to the multilateral order extending beyond services trade.

Protecting Global Brands: Toward a Global Norm

2002 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kate Gillespie ◽  
Kishore Krishna ◽  
Susan Jarvis
Keyword(s):  
World Trade Organization ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Resource Constraints ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Newly Industrialized Countries ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
Managerial Implications ◽  
Trademark Protection

In 1995, the World Trade Organization bound member countries to new standards of foreign trademark protection. Developed countries were given a year to bring their national trademark regimes into compliance. Other countries were allowed from 5 to 11 years. In the past 7 years, governments have taken many steps to reach compliance. Nonetheless, many countries fall short of the envisaged global norm. To better understand the challenges of the past several years, the authors focus on the state of national trademark regimes on the eve of the establishment of the World Trade Organization. The authors particularly address how contagion influence, resource constraints, and xenophobia affected treaty participation, domestic trademark law, application processing, and the relative treatment of foreign and domestic applications. The authors analyze data for 62 countries, which suggest that distinct patterns of foreign trademark protection existed for developed countries, newly industrialized countries, less developed countries, and transitional economies. The authors explain the managerial implications of these findings and argue that there is evidence that countries are moving toward global norms in trademark protection. However, an international treaty is the beginning, not the end, of this process.

Fighting carbon leakage through consumption-based carbon emissions policies: Empirical analysis based on the World Trade Model with Bilateral Trades

2020 ◽  
Vol 274 ◽  
pp. 115301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo V. Rocco ◽  
Nicolò Golinucci ◽  
Stefano M. Ronco ◽  
Emanuela Colombo
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Carbon Leakage ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
The World

The World Trade Model: Revised estimates

1990 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard D. Haas ◽  
Anthony G. Turner
Keyword(s):  
World Trade ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
The World

Trade and Environment in the World Trading System: A Decade of Stalemate?

2001 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Williams
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
World Trade Organization ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Trade And Environment ◽  
Trading System ◽  
The Past ◽  
System A ◽  
The World ◽  
World Trading System

This article assesses the first decade of the trade-environment debate, and explores the possibilities for reconciliation of competing positions on trade-environment issues. It explores three aspects of the continuing conflict over trade and environment in the World Trade Organization. Rejecting both optimistic and pessimistic accounts of the past and future of the trade-environment debate it argues that important changes have occurred that have transformed the debate. But, despite the normalization of the trade-environment debate around the concept of sustainable development significant points of contention remain among the various participants.

Sovereignty and Developing Countries: Current Status and Future Prospects at the WTO

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 395-409
Author(s):  
HANS MAHNCKE
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
World Trade Organization ◽  
World Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Future Prospects ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Powers

Globalization, as evidenced in increased trade, economic development, and the emergence of new global powers, has meant that the world economy has undergone significant changes over the past two decades. The World Trade Organization (WTO) is more than a potent representation of these developments, it is often seen, along with its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), as having enabled the process of globalization. However, there are profound concerns about what lies ahead in an increasingly complex economic and regulatory setting, in particular for developing countries (DCs).

scholarly journals Developing the Food, Water, and Energy Nexus for Food and Energy Scenarios with the World Trade Model

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 2354
Author(s):  
Ignacio Cazcarro ◽  
Naci Dilekli
Keyword(s):  
Resource Use ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Management Approaches ◽  
Paris Climate Agreement

The food, energy, and water (FEW) nexus has gained increased attention, resulting in numerous studies on management approaches. Themes of resource use, and their subsequent scarcity and economic rents, which are within the application domain of the World Trade Model, are ripe for study, with the continuing development of forward- and backward-facing economic data. Scenarios of future food and energy demand, relating to supply chains, as well as direct and indirect resource uses, are modelled in this paper. While it is possible to generate a substantial number of economic and environmental scenarios, our focus is on the development of an overarching approach involving a range of scenarios. We intend to establish a benchmark of possibilities in the context of the debates surrounding the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21) and the Green New Deal. Our approach draws heavily from the existing literature on international agreements and targets, notably that of COP21, whose application we associate with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP). Relevant factor uses and scarcity rent increases are found and localized, e.g., on the optimal qualities of water, minerals, and land. A clear policy implication is that, in all scenarios, processes of energy transition, raw material use reduction, and recycling must be strengthened.

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