scholarly journals P0345THE EFFICACY OF THE CORTICOSTEROIDS COMBINED ORAL CYCLOPHOSPHAMIDE FOR IGA NEPHROPATHY WITH REAL INSUFFICIENCY

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiren Sun ◽  
Feng Ma ◽  
Xiaoxia Yang ◽  
Ming Bai

Abstract Background and Aims IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the most type of primary glomerulonephritis and one of the major causes of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The KDIGO clinical practice guidelines for glomerulonephritis suggest not the use of immunosuppressive drugs in IgAN patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≤50 mL/min/1.73m2. However, VALIGA study showed that immunosuppressive drugs were more frequently used in IgAN patients with eGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73m2 than in those with eGFR ≥ 30 ml/ min/1.73m2 (60% vs. 44 %; p = 0.004). The immunosuppressive drugs could be effective for IgAN with renal insufficiency in few studies, such as corticosteroids combined oral cyclophosphamide (CS + oral CTX). Therefore, in our present study, we evaluated the efficacy and treatment-related complications of the patients with eGFR from 15 ml/min/1.73m2 to 59 ml/min/1.73m2 who receive supportive care, or CS, or CS + oral CTX. Method 1602 renal biopsy–proven patients were reviewed between January 2008 and December 2016 in the Xijing Hospital. Patients were excluded from the study if they had secondary IgAN. The inclusion criteria were the primary IgAN with eGFR from 15 ml/min/1.73m2 to 59 ml/min/1.73m2 (n = 389). We extracted the patients with receive supportive care, or corticosteroids, or corticosteroids combined oral cyclophosphamide (n = 212). We further excluded patients: < 8 glomeruli (n = 10), diabetes mellitus (n = 4), a follow-up less than 6 months (n = 22), and incomplete data (n = 7). The remaining 169 patients were included in the study (Figure 1). The data included baseline demographic at renal biopsy, renal biopsy, treatment, follow-up parameters and outcomes. The primary endpoint was the combined event of a ≥ 50% reduction in eGFR and/or ESRD. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to determine which variables were associated with renal survival. Variables were entered into a multivariate Cox regression model using an Enter method, which were derived from adjusted models: model 1 was adjusted for age, sex, MAP, proteinuria, and eGFR; model 2 was adjusted for the variables in model 1 plus RAS; model 3 was adjusted for the variables in model 1 plus M1, E1, S1, T1-2, and C1-2; model 4 was adjusted for the variables in model 3 plus RAS. Results In all patients, the mean age was 36.0 years, the median proteinuria at the time of the biopsy was 1.6 g/day, the mean MAP was 108.7 mmHg, and eGFR was 40.4 ml/min/per 1.73 m2, the mean follow-up period was 43.3 months, 75 (44.9%) patients had reached combined event. The cumulative 5-year and 10-year renal survival rate were 39.3% and 9.3%, respectively, in the no-IS group ; 56.5% and 25.1%, respectively, in the CS group and 63.4% and 27.1%, respectively, in the CS + CTX group (Figure 2). Both univariate and multivariate Cox analyses shown that CS did not reduce the risk of combined event, whereas CS + CTX significantly reduced the risk of combined event. CS + CTX (HR = 0.367, 95%CI 0.198-0.682, P = 0.002) was notably associated with the risk of combined event after adjusted for age, sex, MAP, proteinuria, eGFR, M1, E1, S1, T1-2, C1-2, and ARB. The two groups did not differ significantly in treatment-related complications. Conclusion CS + oral CTX is possibly more effective than supportive care, or CS for IgAN patients with eGFR from 15 ml/min/1.73m2 to 59 ml/min/1.73m2. Furthermore, randomized controlled trials further verified the findings of the present study.

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Tan ◽  
Yi Tang ◽  
Gaiqin Pei ◽  
Zhengxia Zhong ◽  
Jiaxing Tan ◽  
...  

AbstractIt was reported that histopathologic lesions are risk factors for the progression of IgA Nephropathy (IgAN). The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships between mesangial deposition of C1q and renal outcomes in IgAN. 1071 patients with primary IgAN diagnosed by renal biopsy were enrolled in multiple study centers form January 2013 to January 2017. Patients were divided into two groups: C1q-positive and C1q-negative. Using a 1: 4 propensity score matching (PSM) method identifying age, gender, and treatment modality to minimize confounding factors, 580 matched (out of 926) C1q-negative patients were compared with 145 C1q-positive patients to evaluate severity of baseline clinicopathological features and renal outcome. Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed to determine whether mesangial C1q deposition is associated with renal outcomes in IgAN. During the follow-up period (41.89 ± 22.85 months), 54 (9.31%) patients in the C1q negative group and 23 (15.86%) patients in C1q positive group reached the endpoint (50% decline of eGFR and/or ESRD or death) respectively (p = 0.01) in the matched cohort. Significantly more patients in C1q negative group achieved complete or partial remission during the follow up period (P = 0.003) both before and after PSM. Three, 5 and 7-year renal survival rates in C1q-positive patients were significantly lower than C1q-negative patients in either unmatched cohort or matched cohort (all p < 0.05). Furthermore, multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that independent risk factors influencing renal survival included Scr, urinary protein, T1-T2 lesion and C1q deposition. Mesangial C1q deposition is a predictor of poor renal survival in IgA nephropathy.Trial registration TCTR, TCTR20140515001. Registered May 15, 2014, http://www.clinicaltrials.in.th/index.php?tp=regtrials&menu=trialsearch&smenu=fulltext&task=search&task2=view1&id=1074.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaowei Lou ◽  
Shizhu Yuan ◽  
Wei Shen ◽  
Yueming Liu ◽  
Juan Jin ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The effect of renal biopsy on the prognosis of elderly patients with chronic kidney disease remains unclear. Thus, in this study, we aimed to evaluate the relationship between renal biopsy and renal survival in this population.Methods In this multi-centre retrospective study, the baseline characteristics among three groups were balanced by propensity matching. All patients were divided into three groups according to age and renal biopsy. The clinicopathological features at biopsy and renal outcomes during the follow-up were collected and analysed. Renal outcomes were defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate < 15 mL/min/1.73 m2, dialysis, renal transplantation, or death. The prognostic effects of renal biopsy were evaluated using Cox regression models. Results A total of 1313 patients were identified. After propensity matching, 390 patients were selected and divided into three groups. After a total follow-up period of 55 months, 20 (13.3%) patients (47.6% group 1 vs 7.41% group 2 vs 39.1% group 3) reached renal outcomes. No significant differences were found in renal outcomes among aged patients whether they underwent renal biopsy or not. Cox regression analysis revealed risk factors in aged patients including low albumin and high levels of proteinuria and serum creatinine (P < 0.05). Platelet count was significant only in aged patients who underwent renal biopsy (hazard ratio: 0.642, P < 0.05). Conclusion In conclusion, renal biopsy in the elderly has not shown benefits in terms of renal survival, conservative treatment appears to be a viable therapeutic option in the management of those people.


2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zaira Castañeda Amado ◽  
Alejandra Gabaldon ◽  
María Teresa Sanz ◽  
Roxana Bury ◽  
Cinthia Baldallo ◽  
...  

Abstract Background and Aims IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common glomerulonephritis. The presence of ANCAs in this pathology represents a rare coincidence. However, it is not clear if the presence of IgA or IgG ANCAs in these patients could have clinical significance. We aim to describe the presence of IgA and IgG ANCAs in patients diagnosed with IgAN with crescents, and its possible clinical implications. Method Retrospective study from 2013 to 2020, it included all patients diagnosed by kidney biopsy of IgAN with extracapillary proliferation. Outpatient follow-up time was up to 24 months. Demographics and clinicopathologic data, ANCAs subtype, characteristics of the biopsy and treatment at the time of diagnosis/follow up was recollected. Results From 2013 to 2020, 17 adults were diagnosed with IgAN and extracapillary proliferation. 5 patients presented ANCAs, 3 (17%) were IgA ANCAs and 2 (11%) were IgG ANCAs. At diagnosis, the median age was 48 years old (27-75 years, sd. 15), with 9 women (52%). At the time of diagnosis, the most common clinical presentation was hypertension (71%). The laboratory analysis showed that median hemoglobin was 11.7 mg/dl (8.4-14.9 mg/dL, sd. 1.5), median creatinine was 2.2 mg/dL (0.55-5.7 mg/dL, sd. 1.4) and median proteinuria was 3.5 g/mgCr (0.1-12 g/mgCr, sd. 3.5). 7 patients (41%) presented extracapillary proliferation less than 25%, 7 patients presented it between 25% and 50%, and 3 patients (17%) had it in more than 50%. 5 (30%) patients presented fibrinoid necrosis. 1 (6%) patient needed renal replacement therapy upon admission. In terms of treatment, all patients with ANCAs IgAN received endovenous steroids and cyclophosphamide. The mean follow-up time was 6 months. Oral steroids (59%) and mycophenolate (41%) were the most frequent treatments. At six months, the median creatinine was 1.9 mg/dL (0.4-7, sd. 1.78) and the median proteinuria was 1.45 g/gCr (0.12-5.9, sd. 1.84 g/gCr). 3 patients developed end-stage chronic kidney disease and requiring substitute renal therapy; 4 patients died. Statistical analysis did not show differences in clinical characteristics, demographics, kidney function, proteinuria, need for renal therapy replacement or mortality according to the presence or subtype of ANCA. ANCA negative patients presented less than 25% of extracapillary proliferation in renal biopsy (p = 0.04). ANCA positive patients presented more fibrinoid necrosis than ANCA negative patients (p=0.01). Conclusion Given the limited size of our sample, our results do not allow us to be conclusive, showing no significant differences between the ANCA subtypes. However, from the point of renal biopsy, it is observed that patients with negative ANCAs present less extracapillary proliferation; and that patients ANCA positive presented more fibrinoid necrosis.


2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 210-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Knoop ◽  
Ann Merethe Vågane ◽  
Bjørn Egil Vikse ◽  
Einar Svarstad ◽  
Bergrún Tinna Magnúsdóttir ◽  
...  

Background: Predicting outcome in individual patients with IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is difficult but important. For this purpose, the absolute renal risk (ARR) model has been developed in a French cohort to calculate the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and death. ARR (0-3) is scored in individual IgAN patients based on the presence of proteinuria ≥1 g/24 h, hypertension, and severe histopathological lesions (1 point per risk factor). We have validated the ARR model in a Norwegian cohort of IgAN patients and tested whether adding data on initial estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and age improved prediction. Methods: IgAN patients diagnosed between 1988 and 2012 were identified in the Norwegian Kidney Biopsy Registry, and endpoints were identified by record linkage with the Norwegian Renal Registry (ESRD) and the Population Registry (deaths). Results: We identified 1,134 IgAN patients. The mean duration of follow-up was 10.2 years (range 0.0 to 25.7 years). Two hundred and fifty one patients developed ESRD and there were 69 pre-ESRD deaths. The ARR model significantly stratified the IgAN cohort according to risk of ESRD/death. The inclusion of eGFR and age significantly improved the ARR prognostic model; in the receiver operator characteristics (ROC) analysis, area under the curve (AUC) at 10-years of follow-up increased from 0.79 to 0.89, p < 0.001. Conclusions: ARR is a suitable prognostic model for stratifying IgAN patients according to the risk of ESRD or death. Including initial eGFR and age in the model substantially improved its accuracy in our nationwide cohort.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samar M Said ◽  
Alejandro Best Rocha ◽  
Anthony M Valeri ◽  
Mohamad Sandid ◽  
Anhisekh Sinha Ray ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Coexistence of fibrillary glomerulonephritis (FGN) and immunoglobulin A (IgA) nephropathy (IgAN) in the same kidney biopsy (FGN–IgAN) is rare, and the clinicopathologic characteristics and outcome of this dual glomerulopathy are unknown. Methods In this study, 20 patients with FGN–IgAN were studied and their characteristics were compared with 40 FGN and 40 IgAN control patients. Results Concurrent IgAN was present in 1.8% of 847 consecutive FGN cases and was the second most common concurrent glomerulopathy after diabetic nephropathy. FGN–IgAN patients were overwhelmingly White (94%) and contrary to FGN patients were predominantly (60%) males. Compared with IgAN patients, FGN–IgAN patients were older, had higher proteinuria, a higher incidence of renal insufficiency, and a lower incidence of microhematuria and gross hematuria at diagnosis. Six (30%) patients had malignancy, autoimmune disease or hepatitis C infection, but none had a secondary cause of IgAN or clinical features of Henoch–Schonlein purpura. Histologically, all cases exhibited smudgy glomerular staining for immunoglobulin G and DnaJ homolog subfamily B member 9 (DNAJB9) with corresponding fibrillary deposits and granular mesangial staining for IgA with corresponding mesangial granular electron-dense deposits. On follow-up (median 27 months), 10 of 18 (56%) FGN–IgAN patients progressed to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), including 5 who subsequently died. Serum creatinine at diagnosis was a poor predictor of renal survival. The proportion of patients reaching ESKD or died was higher in FGN–IgAN than in IgAN. The median Kaplan–Meier ESKD-free survival time was 44 months for FGN–IgAN, which was shorter than IgAN (unable to compute, P = 0.013) and FGN (107 months, P = 0.048). Conclusions FGN–IgAN is very rare, with clinical presentation and demographics closer to FGN than IgAN. Prognosis is guarded with a median renal survival of 3.6 years. The diagnosis of this dual glomerulopathy requires careful evaluation of immunofluorescence findings, and electron microscopy or DNAJB9 immunohistochemistry.


2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 674.1-674
Author(s):  
C. C. Mok ◽  
C. S. Sin ◽  
K. C. Hau ◽  
T. H. Kwan

Background:The goals of treatment of lupus nephritis (LN) are to induce remission, retard the progression of chronic kidney disease, prevent organ complications and ultimately reduce mortality. Previous cohort studies of LN have mainly focused on the risk of mortality and development of end stage renal failure (ESRF) (renal survival). The cumulative frequency of LN patients who survive without organ damage, which correlates better with the balance between treatment efficacy and toxicity, as well as quality of life, has not been well studied.Objectives:To study the organ damage free survival and its predictive factors in patients with active LN.Methods:Consecutive patients who fulfilled ≥4 ACR/SLICC criteria for SLE and with biopsy proven active LN between 2003 and 2018 were retrospectivey analyzed. Those with organ damage before LN onset were excluded. Data on renal parameters and treatment regimens were collected. Complete renal response (CR) was defined as normalization of serum creatinine (SCr), urine P/Cr (uPCR) <0.5 and inactive urinary sediments. Partial renal response (PR) was defined as ≥50% reduction in uPCR and <25% increase in SCr. Organ damage of SLE was assessed by the ACR/SLICC damage index (SDI). The cumulative risk of having any organ damage or mortality since LN was studied by Kaplan-Meier’s analysis. Factors associated with a poor outcome were studied by a forward stepwise Cox regression model, with entry of covariates with p<0.05 and removal with p>0.10.Results:273 LN patients were identified but 64 were excluded (organ damage before LN onset). 211 LN patients were studied (92% women; age at SLE 30.4±13.5 years; SLE duration at LN 1.9±3.1years). 47 (22%) patients had nephrotic syndrome and 60 (29%) were hypertensive. Histological LN classes was: III/IV±V (75.1%), I/II (7.8%) and pure V (17.1%) (histologic activity and chronicity score 7.0±4.2 and 1.8±1.5, respectively). Induction regimens were: prednisolone (33.1±17.5mg/day) in combination with intravenous cyclophosphamide (CYC) (21.4%; 1.0±0.2g per pulse), oral CYC (8.6%; 96.4±37.8mg/day), azathioprine (AZA) (14.3%; 78.6±25.2mg/day), mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) (22.8%; 1.9±0.43g/day) and tacrolimus (TAC) (17.1%; 4.3±1.1mg/day). After a follow-up of 8.6±5.4 years, 94(45%) patient developed organ damage (SDI≥1) and 21(10%) patients died. The commonest organ damage was renal (36.3%) and musculoskeletal (17.9%), and the causes of death were: infection (38.1%), malignancy (19.0%), cardiovascular events (9.5%) and ESRF complications (9.5%). At last visit, 114 (55%) patients survived without any organ damage. The cumulative organ damage free survival at 5, 10 and 15 years after renal biopsy was 73.5%, 59.6% and 48.3%, respectively. The 5, 10 and 15-year renal survival rate were 95.2%, 92.0% and 84.1% respectively. In a Cox regression model, nephritic relapse (HR 3.72[1.78-7.77]), proteinuric relapse (HR 2.30[1.07-4.95]) and older age (HR 1.89[1.05-3.37]) were associated with either organ damage or mortality, whereas CR (HR 0.25[0.12-0.50]) at month 12 were associated with organ damage free survival. Baseline SCr, uPCR and histological LN classes were not significantly associated with a poor outcome. Among patients with class III/IV LN, the long-term organ damage free survival were not significantly different in users of MMF (reference) from CYC (IV/oral) (HR 1.45[0.76- 2.75]) or TAC (HR 1.03[0.26-1.62]) as induction therapy.Conclusion:Organ damage free survival is achieved in 55% of patients with active LN upon 9 years of follow-up. CYC/MMF/TAC based induction regimens did not differ for the long-term outcome of LN. Targeting complete renal response and preventing renal relapses remain important goals of LN treatment.Acknowledgments:NILDisclosure of Interests:None declared


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-2
Author(s):  
Carolina Aguilar-Martínez 

<b>Background:</b> The benefits of treating anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic autoantibody-associated vasculitis (AAV) in advancing age remains unclear with most published studies defining elderly as ≥65 years. This study aims to determine outcomes of induction immunosuppression in patients aged ≥75 years. <b>Methods:</b> A cohort of patients aged ≥75 years with a diagnosis of AAV between 2006 and 2018 was constructed from 2 centres. Follow-up was to 2 years or death. Analysis included multivariable Cox regression to compare mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) based on receipt of induction immunosuppression therapy with either cyclophosphamide or rituximab. A systematic review of outcome studies was subsequently undertaken amongst this patient group through Pubmed, Cochrane and Embase databases from inception until October 16, 2019. <b>Results:</b> Sixty-seven patients were identified. Mean age was 79 ± 2.9 years and 82% (<i>n</i> = 55) received induction immunosuppression. Following systematic review, 4 studies were eligible for inclusion, yielding a combined total of 290 patients inclusive of our cohort. The aggregated 1-year mortality irrespective of treatment was 31% (95% CI 25–36%). Within our cohort, induction immunosuppression therapy was associated with a significantly lower 2-year mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR] 0.29 [95% CI 0.09–0.93]). The pooled HR by meta-analysis confirmed this with a significant risk reduction for death (HR 0.31 [95% CI 0.16–0.57], <i>I</i><sup>2</sup> = 0%). Treated patients had a lower pooled rate of ESRD, but was not statistically significant (HR 0.71 [95% CI 0.15–3.35]). <b>Conclusion:</b> This meta-analysis suggests that patients ≥75 years with AAV do benefit from induction immunosuppression with a significant survival benefit. Age alone should not be a limiting factor when considering treatment.


2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 285-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew D. Putnam ◽  
Christy M. Christophersen ◽  
Julie E. Adams

Background We report on the non-operative treatment of Mayo Type II olecranon fractures. Methods Fourteen isolated Mayo Type II olecranon fractures were treated non-operatively, followed to discharge, and retrospectively reviewed. Treatment was splinting in extension followed by protected active motion beginning 3 weeks to 4 weeks post-injury. Mayo Elbow Performance Index (MEPI) and Shortened Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (QuickDASH) scores were available in 86% and 64% of cases, respectively. Follow-up radiographs were obtained. Results At discharge, the mean (SD) MEPI score was 95 (5). The mean (SD) elbow motion arc was 121° (21°). One patient re-fractured his elbow after discharge by falling on the ice. He recovered after open reduction and internal fixation. One patient (documented Marfan syndrome) developed an asymptomatic non-union. Excepting the patient who fell, no patient received additional care. Conclusions In this pilot report, Mayo Type II olecranon fractures were treated non-operatively to discharge. Good to excellent results were obtained in all patients according to the MEPI. Supportive care of these fractures should be comparatively studied. A downside risk to providing supportive care for these fractures was not identified.


2002 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 453-460
Author(s):  
Francesco Paolo Schena ◽  
Giuseppina Cerullo ◽  
Michele Rossini ◽  
Salvatore Giovanni Lanzilotta ◽  
Christian D’Altri ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT. Primary IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is characterized by recurrent episodes of macroscopic hematuria accompanied by upper respiratory tract infections or persistent asymptomatic microscopic hematuria with or without proteinuria. IgAN may involve one or more members of a family. Three generations of a cohort of 110 patients with biopsy-proven IgAN, living in Southern Italy, were checked for urinalysis, and the relative risk (RR) of developing the disease was evaluated. A total of 19 unrelated familial, 37 suspected, and 54 sporadic cases of IgAN were identified. Renal survival was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method for censored data and compared by use of the log-rank test. More than 50% of the patients with IgAN clustered in kindred with more than two probably affected relatives. In 19 unrelated IgAN families, 8 had single-generation (SG) and 11 multigenerational (MG) involvement showing a prevalent vertical transmission of the trait. The RR was 16 times higher in first-degree relatives (odds ratio [OR], 16.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.7 to 47.8; P < 0.0001) and >2 times higher, even if NS, in second-degree relatives (OR, 2.4; 95 % CI, 0.7 to 7.9; P = 0.145). The clinical and histologic picture of familial and sporadic IgAN appeared to be similar. The 20-yr renal survival rate from the apparent onset of the disease was significantly poorer in patients with familial (41%) than in patients with sporadic (94%) IgAN (P = 0.003). Furthermore, 15-yr renal survival from the time of renal biopsy was significantly worse in familial IgAN (P = 0.02); end-stage renal disease was present in 64% of familial and only in 8% of patients with sporadic IgAN. Finally, renal survival was significantly worse in patients belonging to families with SG rather than with MG involvement (P = 0.03). These data show, for the first time, that familial IgAN may be considered a nonbenign disease that occurs frequently in first-degree relatives. Familial IgAN has a poorer outcome than sporadic IgAN. Therefore, an accurate family history and urinalysis in all family members is urgently recommended in clinical practice. This procedure might avoid late referral of subjects with persistent and underestimated urinary abnormalities and late diagnosis of the disease.


2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Maria Rossi ◽  
Francesco Peyronel ◽  
Marco Delsante ◽  
Avi Z Rosenberg ◽  
Paride Fenaroli ◽  
...  

Abstract Background and Aims The prognosis of lupus nephritis (LN) has become progressively more favorable thanks to the introduction of cyclophosphamide and mycophenolate as the mainstay of induction of remission treatment regimens. However, 10-15% of patients still progress to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Early predictors of ESRD, i.e. in the first six months between kidney biopsy and the completion of induction, are currently limited to few histological and clinical features: ≥ 25% interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IFTA), fibrinoid necrosis, fibrous crescents, and thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA) [Rijnink EC et al CJASN 2017; Song D Arthritis Res Ther 2013]; lack of decrease in proteinuria &lt; 0.5 g/24-h at 3 and 6 months from kidney biopsy [Tamirou F Ann Rheum Dis 2016], baseline GFR ≤ 90 ml/min/1.73 m2, lack of decrease in urinary protein-to-creatinine ratio (UPCR) &lt; 1 and anti-dsDNA positivity at the end of induction [Dall’Era M Lupus Sci Med 2015]. In this study we sought to identify further clinical and histological predictors of ESRD in LN. Methods Adult patients diagnosed with LN between 1995 and 2018 in two centers (NIAMS, Bethesda, Maryland, USA, and Nefrologia, AOU di Parma, Italy) were retrospectively identified. Patients with available serum C3 and C4 levels at the time of biopsy and 6 months thereafter, and a follow-up of at least 6 months, were included. Baseline and follow-up data (until March 2019) including age, sex, ethnicity, clinical, histological and laboratory findings were collected. Histology slides were reviewed by an experienced renal pathologist and biopsies re-scored using the ISN/RPS classification and NIH activity and chronicity indices. Distinct histological features were assessed individually (e.g. TMA). Persistent C3 hypocomplementemia was defined as decreased serum C3 levels at the time of biopsy and after 6 months (i.e. after the completion of induction), with concurrent normal serum C4 levels at 6 months. Early renal recovery was defined as either an increase in eGFR above 60 in those with a baseline eGFR &lt; 60 ml/min/1.73 m2, or a 50% decrease in proteinuria in those with a baseline eGFR ≥ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and ≥ 0.5 g/24-h or g/g UPCR at the time of biopsy. Variables were tested for their predictive power of death-censored ESRD in univariate and multivariate Cox regression models. Results 74 patients (NIAMS n = 36; Parma n = 38) met our criteria. Median follow-up duration was 64 months (range 6-230). On univariate analysis, the following parameters predicted ESRD: Hispanic ethnicity; age at biopsy; persistent C3 hypocomplementemia; normalization of both C3 and C4; renal recovery after induction; NIH activity index; presence of TMA; ≥ 25% IFTA. Multivariate Cox regression models for ESRD were created considering statistically significant variables (p &lt; 0.05). In a model including Hispanic ethnicity, age at biopsy, and persistent C3 hypocomplementemia, the latter predicted ESRD with an HR of 5.22 (95% CI [1.33, 20.58] p = 0.018) when adjusting for renal recovery after induction. Upon including histological features in the model, persistent C3 hypocomplementemia, TMA, and the NIH activity index lost significance, while ≥ 25% IFTA predicted ESRD with an HR of 27.26 (95% CI [2.12, 350.54], p = 0.011). Conclusion In patients with LN, ≥ 25% IFTA at baseline biopsy is a predictor of ESRD, allowing for early risk stratification with the potential of informing treatment strategies. Where percent IFTA is unavailable or its assessment unreliable (e.g. inadequate biopsy specimen for tubulointerstitial assessment), persistent C3 hypocomplementemia represents a reliable and reproducible early predictor of ESRD, irrespective of early renal recovery after induction.


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