scholarly journals A multicenter, prospective, observational study to determine association of mesangial C1q deposition with renal outcomes in IgA nephropathy

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Tan ◽  
Yi Tang ◽  
Gaiqin Pei ◽  
Zhengxia Zhong ◽  
Jiaxing Tan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Iga Nephropathy ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Renal Outcome ◽  
Matched Cohort ◽  
Negative Group ◽  
Renal Survival ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Renal Outcomes

AbstractIt was reported that histopathologic lesions are risk factors for the progression of IgA Nephropathy (IgAN). The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships between mesangial deposition of C1q and renal outcomes in IgAN. 1071 patients with primary IgAN diagnosed by renal biopsy were enrolled in multiple study centers form January 2013 to January 2017. Patients were divided into two groups: C1q-positive and C1q-negative. Using a 1: 4 propensity score matching (PSM) method identifying age, gender, and treatment modality to minimize confounding factors, 580 matched (out of 926) C1q-negative patients were compared with 145 C1q-positive patients to evaluate severity of baseline clinicopathological features and renal outcome. Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed to determine whether mesangial C1q deposition is associated with renal outcomes in IgAN. During the follow-up period (41.89 ± 22.85 months), 54 (9.31%) patients in the C1q negative group and 23 (15.86%) patients in C1q positive group reached the endpoint (50% decline of eGFR and/or ESRD or death) respectively (p = 0.01) in the matched cohort. Significantly more patients in C1q negative group achieved complete or partial remission during the follow up period (P = 0.003) both before and after PSM. Three, 5 and 7-year renal survival rates in C1q-positive patients were significantly lower than C1q-negative patients in either unmatched cohort or matched cohort (all p < 0.05). Furthermore, multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that independent risk factors influencing renal survival included Scr, urinary protein, T1-T2 lesion and C1q deposition. Mesangial C1q deposition is a predictor of poor renal survival in IgA nephropathy.Trial registration TCTR, TCTR20140515001. Registered May 15, 2014, http://www.clinicaltrials.in.th/index.php?tp=regtrials&menu=trialsearch&smenu=fulltext&task=search&task2=view1&id=1074.

scholarly journals Mesangial IgM Deposition predicts renal outcome in patients with IgA nephropathy: A multicenter, prospective, observational study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Tan ◽  
Yi Tang ◽  
Gai-Qin Pei ◽  
Zheng-Xia Zhong ◽  
Jia-Xing Tan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Observational Study ◽  
Prospective Observational Study ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Renal Outcome ◽  
Matched Cohort ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Renal Outcomes ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Multicenter Prospective Observational Study

Abstract BackgroundMesangial IgM deposition is commonly found in patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN). This study aims to investigate the relationships between mesangial IgM deposition and disease progression in IgAN patients.MethodsA total of 1239 patients with biopsy-proven primary IgAN were enrolled in this multicenter, prospective, observational study between January 2013 and August 2017. According to the degree of IgM deposition, 1239 patients were divided into three groups: Grade 0 (no or trace; n = 713, 57.55%), Grade 1 (mild; n = 414, 33.41%), Grades 2 + 3 (moderate and marked; n = 112, 9.04%). Using a 1: 1 propensity score matching (PSM) method identifying age, gender, and treatment modality to minimize confounding factors, 1042 matched patients (out of 1239) with different degrees of IgM deposition were enrolled to evaluate the severity of baseline clinicopathological features and renal outcome: Grade 0 (n = 521, 50.00%), Grade 1 (n = 409, 39.25%), Grades 2 + 3 (n = 112, 10.75%). Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed to determine whether different degrees of mesangial IgM deposition are associated with varying renal outcomes in IgAN.ResultsDuring a mean follow-up of 48.90 ± 23.86 and 49.01 ± 23.73 months, before and after adjusting for propensity scores respectively, the rate of complete remission (CR) was progressively lower with increased IgM deposition in both unmatched (63.39%, 46.14%, 45.54%) and matched cohort (61.80%, 46.45%, 45.54%), whereas the proportion of patients progressing to end stage renal disease (ESRD) showed reverse correlation (P < 0.001). Kaplan–Meier analysis indicated negative correlation between the intensity of mesangial IgM deposits and cumulative renal survival (all P < 0.05). Moreover, Cox regression analysis revealed that the degree of mesangial IgM deposition predicted renal outcome independent of MESTC score and clinical variables in the unmatched (Grade 1, HR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.11–2.29; P = 0.01; Grades 2 + 3, HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.02–2.08; P = 0.04) and matched cohort (Grade 1, HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.19–2.85; P = 0.01; Grades 2 + 3, HR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.01–3.24; P = 0.04).ConclusionsMesangial IgM deposition plays an important role in renal prognosis and is independently associated with worse renal outcomes in patients with IgAN.Trial registration TCTR, TCTR20140515001. Registered May 15, 2014, http://www.clinicaltrials.in.th/index.php?tp=regtrials&menu=trialsearch&smenu=fulltext&task=search&task2=view1&id=1074

scholarly journals Role of Disease Modifying Treatment in the Risk of Alloimmunization in Transfused Patients with Myelodysplastic Syndromes: A Population-Based Study

Blood ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 4253-4253
Author(s):  
Hanne Rozema ◽  
Robby Kibbelaar ◽  
Nic Veeger ◽  
Mels Hoogendoorn ◽  
Eric van Roon
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Blood Products ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Observation Period

The majority of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) require regular red blood cell (RBC) transfusions. Alloimmunization (AI) against blood products is an adverse event, causing time-consuming RBC compatibility testing. The reported incidence of AI in MDS patients varies greatly. Even though different studies on AI in MDS patients have been performed, there are still knowledge gaps. Current literature has not yet fully identified the risk factors and dynamics of AI in individual patients, nor has the influence of disease modifying treatment (DMT) been explored. Therefore, we performed this study to evaluate the effect of DMT on AI. An observational, population-based study, using the HemoBase registry, was performed including all newly diagnosed MDS patients between 2005 and 2017 in Friesland, a province of the Netherlands. All available information about treatment and transfusions, including transfusion dates, types, and treatment regimens, was collected from the electronic health records and laboratory systems. Follow-up occurred through March 2019. For our patient cohort, blood products were matched for AB0 and RhD, and transfused per the 'type and screen' policy (i.e. electronic matching of blood group phenotype between patient and donor). After a positive antibody screening, antibody identification and Rh/K phenotyping was performed and subsequent blood products were (cross)matched accordingly. The observation period was counted from first transfusion until last transfusion or first AI event. Univariate analyses and cumulative frequency distributions were performed to study possible risk factors and dynamics of AI. DMT was defined as hypomethylating agents, lenalidomide, chemotherapy and monoclonal antibodies. The effect of DMT as a temporary risk period on the risk of AI was estimated with incidence rates, relative risks (RR) and hazard ratios (HR) using a cox regression analysis. Follow-up was limited to 24 months for the cox regression analysis to avoid possible bias by survival differences. Statistical analyses were performed using IBM SPSS 24 and SAS 9.4. Out of 292 MDS patients, 236 patients received transfusions and were included in this study, covering 463 years of follow-up. AI occurred in 24 patients (10%). AI occurred mostly in the beginning of the observation period: Eighteen patients (75%) were alloimmunized after receiving 20 units of RBCs, whereas 22 patients (92%) showed AI after 45 units of RBCs (Figure 1). We found no significant risk factors for AI in MDS patients at baseline. DMT was given to 67 patients (28%) during the observation period. Patients on DMT received more RBC transfusions than patients that did not receive DMT (median of 33 (range: 3-154) and 11 (range: 0-322) RBC units respectively, p<0,001). Four AI events (6%) occurred in patients on DMT and 20 AI events (12%) occurred in patients not on DMT. Cox regression analysis of the first 24 months of follow-up showed an HR of 0.30 (95% CI: 0.07-1.31; p=0.11). The incidence rates per 100 person-years were 3.19 and 5.92 respectively. The corresponding RR was 0.54 (95% CI: 0.16-1.48; p=0.26). Based on our results, we conclude that the incidence of AI in an unselected, real world MDS population receiving RBC transfusions is 10% and predominantly occurred in the beginning of follow-up. Risk factors for AI at baseline could not be identified. Our data showed that patients on DMT received significantly more RBC transfusions but were less susceptible to AI. Therefore, extensive matching of blood products may not be necessary for patients on DMT. Larger studies are needed to confirm the protective effect of DMT on AI. Disclosures Rozema: Celgene: Other: Financial support for visiting MDS Foundation conference.

Relationship between renal biopsy and renal survival in elderly patients with chronic kidney disease: A propensity score matching approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaowei Lou ◽  
Shizhu Yuan ◽  
Wei Shen ◽  
Yueming Liu ◽  
Juan Jin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Renal Biopsy ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Renal Survival ◽  
Aged Patients ◽  
Renal Outcomes ◽  
Propensity Matching

Abstract Background The effect of renal biopsy on the prognosis of elderly patients with chronic kidney disease remains unclear. Thus, in this study, we aimed to evaluate the relationship between renal biopsy and renal survival in this population.Methods In this multi-centre retrospective study, the baseline characteristics among three groups were balanced by propensity matching. All patients were divided into three groups according to age and renal biopsy. The clinicopathological features at biopsy and renal outcomes during the follow-up were collected and analysed. Renal outcomes were defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate < 15 mL/min/1.73 m2, dialysis, renal transplantation, or death. The prognostic effects of renal biopsy were evaluated using Cox regression models. Results A total of 1313 patients were identified. After propensity matching, 390 patients were selected and divided into three groups. After a total follow-up period of 55 months, 20 (13.3%) patients (47.6% group 1 vs 7.41% group 2 vs 39.1% group 3) reached renal outcomes. No significant differences were found in renal outcomes among aged patients whether they underwent renal biopsy or not. Cox regression analysis revealed risk factors in aged patients including low albumin and high levels of proteinuria and serum creatinine (P < 0.05). Platelet count was significant only in aged patients who underwent renal biopsy (hazard ratio: 0.642, P < 0.05). Conclusion In conclusion, renal biopsy in the elderly has not shown benefits in terms of renal survival, conservative treatment appears to be a viable therapeutic option in the management of those people.

scholarly journals Serologic and Histologic Predictors of Long-Term Renal Outcome in Biopsy-Confirmed IgA Nephropathy (Haas Classification): An Observational Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 848 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shang-Feng Tsai ◽  
Ming-Ju Wu ◽  
Mei-Chin Wen ◽  
Cheng-Hsu Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Iga Nephropathy ◽  
Neutrophil To Lymphocyte Ratio ◽  
Renal Outcome ◽  
Categorical Variables ◽  
Youden Index ◽  
Renal Survival ◽  
Platelet To Lymphocyte Ratio ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Lymphocyte Ratio

Background and objective: The Haas classification of IgA nephropathy should be validated for Asian populations. More detailed and newer predictions regarding renal outcome of IgA nephropathy remains mandatory. Materials: We conducted a retrospective cohort study between January 2003 and December 2013. Clinical, Pathological, and laboratory data were all collected via available medical records. A Mann–Whitney U test was used for continuous variables and the Chi-square test was implemented for categorical variables. A Kaplan–Meier curve was put in place in order to determine patient survival and renal survival. The Youden index and Cox proportional hazard regression were used to investigate the possible factors for renal survival and predictive power. Results: All 272 renal biopsy-confirmed IgAN patients were enrolled for further studies. The univariate analysis showed that risk factors for poor renal outcome included stage 4–5 of Haas classification (HR = 3.67, p < 0.001), a poor baseline renal function (HR = 1.02 and p < 0.001 for higher BUN; HR = 1.14 and p < 0.001 for higher serum creatinine; HR = 0.95, p < 0.001 for higher eGFR), IgG ≤ 907 (HR = 2.29, p = 0.003), C3 ≤ 79.7 (HR = 2.76, p = 0.002), a higher C4 (HR = 1.02, p = 0.026), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio > 2.75 (HR = 2.92, p < 0.001), and a platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥ 16.06 (HR = 2.02, p = 0.012). A routine-checked markers, such as neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, in order to predict the renal outcome, is recommended. Conclusions: This is the first study to demonstrate that Haas classification is also useful for establishing predictive values in Asian groups. A lower serum IgG (≤907 mg/dL) and serum C3 (≤79.7 mg/dL) were both risk factors for poor renal outcome. Additionally, this is the first study to reveal that serum C4 levels, an NLR > 2.75 and a PLR > 16.06, S could suggest poor renal outcome.

Predictive value of ankle–brachial index for long-term events of ischemic stroke in hemodialysis patients

Vascular ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 170853812092595
Author(s):  
Kai-Ni Lee ◽  
Li-Ping Chou ◽  
Chi-Chu Liu ◽  
Tsang-Shan Chen ◽  
Eric Kim-Tai Lui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Ankle Brachial Index ◽  
Hemodialysis Patients ◽  
Serum Phosphate ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis

Objectives The ankle–brachial index is a noninvasive modality to evaluate atherosclerosis and is a predictive role for future cardiovascular events and mortality. However, few studies have evaluated its relation to long-term future ischemic stroke in hemodialysis patients. Therefore, we examined the relationship between ankle–brachial index and ischemic stroke events among hemodialysis patients in a seven-year follow-up. Methods A total of 84 patients were enrolled. Ankle–brachial index was assessed in January 2009. Primary outcomes included ischemic stroke. An ankle–brachial index < 0.9 was considered abnormal and 1.4 ≥ ankle–brachial index ≥ 0.9 to be normal ankle–brachial index. Results Mean values for ankle–brachial index were 0.98 ± 0.21at study entrance. In addition, 28 patients encountered ischemic stroke in the seven-year follow-up. In univariate Cox regression analysis, old age (hazard ratio (HR): 1.065, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.030–1.102, p < 0.001), low seven-year averaged serum phosphate levels (HR: 0.473, 95% CI: 0.306–0.730, p = 0.001), and abnormal ankle–brachial index (HR: 0.035, 95% CI: 0.009–0.145, p < 0.001) were risk factors for ischemic stroke. In multivariate Cox regression analysis for significant variables in univariate analysis, abnormal ankle–brachial index (HR: 0.058, 95% CI: 0.012–0.279, p < 0.001) and low seven-year averaged serum phosphate levels (HR: 0.625, 95% CI: 0.404–0.968, p = 0.035) remained the risk factors for ischemic stroke. The risk of ischemic stroke was 3.783-fold in patients with abnormal ankle–brachial index compared with patients with normal ankle–brachial index (HR: 3.783, 95% CI: 1.731–8.269, p = 0.001). Conclusions These findings suggest that ankle–brachial index is an impressive predictor of future ischemic stroke among hemodialysis patients.

scholarly journals Impact of Metabolic Syndrome on the Development of Cardiovascular Disease among Kazakhs in Remote Rural Areas of Xinjiang, China: A Cohort Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenwen Yang ◽  
Shuxia Guo ◽  
Haixia Wang ◽  
Yu Li ◽  
Xianghui Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Metabolic Syndrome ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Baseline Survey ◽  
Minority Populations ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Abstract Background: Metabolic syndrome (MS) could promote the development of cardiovascular disease(CVD). The aim of this study was to examine the association of MS and its components with CVD among Kazakhs in Xinjiang. Methods: According to the geographical distribution of the minority populations in Xinjiang, we selected the representative prefecture (Yili). A total of 2,644 participants completed the baseline survey between April 2010 and December 2012. The follow-up survey was conducted from April 2016 to December 2016. Only 2,286 out of 2,644 participants were followed-up on, with a follow-up rate of 86.46%. Cox regression was used to evaluate the association of each component and the number of combinations of MS components on the development of CVD. Results: Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that blood pressure (BP), waist circumference (WC), and triglycerides (TG) were independently associated with CVD. Participants with 1–5 MS components had an increased hazard ratio for developing CVD, from 1.82 to 8.59 (trend P<0.001), compared with those without any MS components. This trend persisted after adjusting for other general risk factors. The risk of developing CVD increased when TG and WC coexisted, or when TG/WC and BP coexisted. However, no significant interactions were found between BP , WC , and TG. Conclusions: BP , WC, and TG were independent risk factors for CVD in Kazakhs. In clinical practice, a more informative assessment may be obtained by taking into account the number of MS components.

scholarly journals Risk of pneumothorax in pneumoconiosis patients in Taiwan: a retrospective cohort study

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. e054098
Author(s):  
Jo-Hui Pan ◽  
Chih-Hung Cheng ◽  
Chao-Ling Wang ◽  
Chia-Yen Dai ◽  
Chau-Chyun Sheu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Retrospective Cohort Study ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Retrospective Cohort ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Matched Cohort ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Control Subjects

ObjectivesThis study was conducted to explore the association between pneumoconiosis and pneumothorax.DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingNationwide population-based study using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Database.ParticipantsA total of 2333 pneumoconiosis patients were identified (1935 patients for propensity score (PS)-matched cohort) and matched to 23 330 control subjects by age and sex (7740 subjects for PS-matched cohort).Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe incidence and the cumulative incidence of pneumothorax.ResultsBoth incidence and the cumulative incidence of pneumothorax were significantly higher in the pneumoconiosis patients as compared with the control subjects (p<0.0001). For multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, residency, income level and other comorbidities, patients with pneumoconiosis exhibited a significantly higher risk of pneumothorax than those without pneumoconiosis (HR 3.05, 95% CI 2.18 to 4.28, p<0.0001). The male sex, heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, chronic pulmonary disease and connective tissue disease were risk factors for developing pneumothorax in pneumoconiosis patients.ConclusionsOur study revealed a higher risk of pneumothorax in pneumoconiosis patients and suggested potential risk factors in these patients. Clinicians should be aware about the risk of pneumothorax in pneumoconiosis patients.

scholarly journals Early and Midterm Outcome of TEVAR for Thoracic Aortic Pseudoaneurysm

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Wang ◽  
Tun Wang ◽  
Hao He ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
Yuan Peng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Clinical Outcome ◽  
Cardiac Disease ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Aortic Pseudoaneurysm ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Backgrounds: The prognosis of thoracic aortic pseudoaneurysm (TAP) after thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) remains unclear. This study investigates the early and midterm clinical outcome as well as relevant risk factors of TAP patients following TEVAR therapy.Methods: From July 2010 to July 2020, 37 eligible TAP patients who underwent TEVAR were selected into our research. We retrospectively explored their baseline, perioperative and follow-up data. Fisher exact test and Kaplan-Meier method were applied for comparing difference between groups. Risk factors of late survival were discerned using Cox regression analysis.Results: There were 29 men and 12 women, with the mean age as 59.5±13.0 years (range, 30-82). The mean follow-up time was 30.7±28.3 months (range, 1-89). For early result, early mortality (≦30days) happened in 3(8.1%) zone 3 TAP patients versus 0 in zone 4 (p= 0.028); acute arterial embolism of lower extremity and type II endoleak respectively occurred in 1(2.7%) case. For midterm result, survival at 3 months, 1 year and 5 years was 88.8±5.3%, 75.9±7.5% and 68.3±9.9%, which showed significant difference between zone 2/3 versus zone 4 group (56.3±14.8% versus 72.9±13.2%, p= 0.013) and emergent versus elective TEVAR groups (0.0±0.0% versus 80.1±8.0%, p= 0.049). On multivariate Cox regression, lesions at zone 2/3 (HR 4.605, 95%CI 1.095-19.359), concomitant cardiac disease (HR 4.932, 95%CI 1.086-22.403) and emergent TEVAR (HR 4.196, 95%CI 1.042-16.891) were significant independent risk factors for worse late clinical outcome. Conclusions: TEVAR therapy is effective and safe with satisfactory early and midterm clinical outcome for TAP patients. Lesions at zone 2/3, concomitant cardiac disease and emergent TEVAR were independent risk factors for midterm survival outcome.

Risk Factors for Failure in Hammertoe Surgery

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (5) ◽  
pp. 562-571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel H. Albright ◽  
Moiz Hassan ◽  
Jacob Randich ◽  
Robert O’Keefe ◽  
Erin E. Klein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Elective Surgery ◽  
Case Series ◽  
Retrospective Case ◽  
Level Of Evidence ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
First Ray ◽  
Pip Joint

Background: Hammertoe correction is perhaps the most common elective surgery performed in the foot, yet rates of symptomatic recurrence and revision surgery can be high. In this study, we aimed to identify patient and provider risk factors associated with failure after hammertoe surgery. Methods: Consecutive patients with a minimum of 6 months’ follow-up undergoing hammertoe surgery within a single, urban foot and ankle practice between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2013, served as the basis of this retrospective cohort study. Cox regression analysis was used to identify important predictor variables obtained through chart and radiographic review. One hundred fifty-two patients (311 toes) with a mean age of 60.8 ± 11.2 years and mean follow-up of 29.5 ± 21.2 months were included. Results: Statistically significant predictors of failure were having a larger preoperative transverse plane deviation of the digit (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03 for each degree; P < .001; 95% CI, 1.02, 1.04), operating on the second toe (vs third or fourth) (HR, 2.23; P = .003; 95% CI, 1.31, 3.81), use of a phalangeal osteotomy to reduce the proximal interphalangeal (PIP) joint (HR, 2.77; P = .005; 95% CI, 1.36, 5.64), and using less common/conventional operative techniques to reduce the PIP joint (HR, 2.62; P = .03; 95% CI, 1.09, 6.26). Concomitant performance of first ray surgery reduced hammertoe recurrence by 50% (HR, 0.51; P = .01; 95% CI, 0.30, 0.87). Conclusion: We identified risk factors that may provide guidance for surgeons during preoperative hammertoe surgery consultations. This information may better equip patients with appropriate postoperative expectations when contemplating surgery. Level of Evidence: Level III, retrospective case series.

scholarly journals Risk Factors for Liver Decompensation and HCC in HCV-Cirrhotic Patients after DAAs: A Multicenter Prospective Study

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 3810
Author(s):  
Filomena Morisco ◽  
Alessandro Federico ◽  
Massimo Marignani ◽  
Mariarita Cannavò ◽  
Giuseppina Pontillo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Independent Predictor ◽  
Liver Stiffness ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Liver Decompensation ◽  
Cirrhotic Patients ◽  
Multicenter Prospective Study

Background: Prospective studies on predictors of liver-related events in cirrhotic subjects achieving SVR after DAAs are lacking. Methods: We prospectively enrolled HCV cirrhotic patients in four Italian centers between November 2015 and October 2017. SVR and no-SVR cases were compared according to the presence or absence of liver-related events during a 24-month follow-up. Independent predictors of liver-related events were evaluated by Cox regression analysis. Results: A total of 706 subjects started DAAs therapy. SVR was confirmed in 687 (97.3%). A total of 61 subjects (8.9%) in the SVR group and 5 (26.3%) in the no-SVR group had liver-related events (p < 0.03). The incidence rate x 100 p/y was 1.6 for HCC, 1.7 for any liver decompensation, and 0.5 for hepatic death. Baseline liver stiffness (LSM) ≥ 20 kPa (HR 4.0; 95% CI 1.1–14.1) and genotype different from 1 (HR 7.5; 95% CI 2.1–27.3) were both independent predictors of liver decompensation. Baseline LSM > 20 KPa (HR 7.2; 95% CI 1.9–26.7) was the sole independent predictor of HCC. A decrease in liver stiffness (Delta LSM) by at least 20% at the end of follow-up was not associated with a decreased risk of liver-related events. Conclusion: Baseline LSM ≥ 20 kPa identifies HCV cirrhotic subjects at higher risk of liver-related events after SVR.

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