scholarly journals An Application of Linear Programming for Short-Term Harvest Scheduling

1988 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas C. Macmillan ◽  
Stephen E. Fairweather
Keyword(s):  
Linear Programming ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Harvest Scheduling ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Planning Period ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Forest Ownership ◽  
Forest Enterprises ◽  
High Level

Abstract The technique of linear programming (LP) is illustrated by developing a harvest schedule for an industrial forest ownership in northwestern Pennsylvania. The objective was to maximize net present value of the harvest over a five-year planning period. The effect of changes in timber value and growth rate on the optimum schedule was determined. Sensitivity analysis provided additional information the manager could use to make decisions. In order to successfully apply LP, the forester must be able to define the management objective of the harvest schedule and the resource and managerial constraints that will influence its attainment. Data used in the model have to be available and reliable. Many forest enterprises should be in the position to adopt LP since commercial programs for microcomputers are now available for which a high level of computing expertise is not required. North. J. Appl. For. 5:145-148, June 1988.

scholarly journals Use of Optimization Modeling to Assess the Effect of Timber and Carbon Pricing on Harvest Scheduling, Carbon Sequestration, and Net Present Value of Eucalyptus Plantations

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 651
Author(s):  
Andrés Hirigoyen ◽  
Mauricio Acuna ◽  
Cecilia Rachid-Casnati ◽  
Jorge Franco ◽  
Rafael Navarro-Cerrillo
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
C Sequestration ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Harvest Scheduling ◽  
Economic Returns ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Planning Period ◽  
Eucalyptus Dunnii ◽  
The Impact

Quantifying the impact of carbon (C) and timber prices on harvest scheduling and economic returns is essential to define strategies for the sustainable management of short-rotation plantations so that they can provide timber products and contribute to C sequestration. In this paper, we present a mixed-integer linear programming model that optimizes harvest scheduling at the forest level, C sequestration, and Net Present Value (NPV) over a planning period of up to 15 years. The model included revenue from the sale of timber (pulplogs) and credits from the net C sequestered during the life of the stands. In addition, plantation establishment, management, harvesting, and transportation costs were included in the analysis. The study area comprised 88 Eucalyptus grandis W. Hill and Eucalyptus dunnii Maiden stands located in Uruguay, totaling a forest area of nearly 1,882 ha. The study investigated the impact of C and timber prices on NPV, harvest schedules, stands’ harvest age, timber flows to customers, and C sequestered per period. The maximum NPV among all the scenarios evaluated (USD 7.53 M) was calculated for a C price of 30 USD t−1, an interest rate of 6%, and a timber price of 75 USD m−3. This was USD 2.14 M higher than the scenario with the same parameters but that included only revenue from timber. C prices also impacted stands’ harvest age, C sequestration, and timber flows delivered to end customers. On average, in scenarios that included C prices, timber flows and C sequestration increased by 15.4 and 12.1%, respectively, when C price increased from 5 to 30 USD t−1. These results demonstrate that harvest scheduling, harvest age, and NPV are very sensitive to C and timber, and that the best economic returns are obtained when the stands are managed to maximize timber production and C sequestration.

scholarly journals Determining the value of standing timber for harvest planning optimization

2020 ◽  
Vol 81 (2) ◽  
pp. 65-74
Author(s):  
Karol Zaborski ◽  
Jan Banaś ◽  
Anna Kożuch
Keyword(s):  
Linear Programming ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Sustainable Forest Management ◽  
Sustainable Use ◽  
The State ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Planning Period ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Harvest Volume ◽  
Standing Timber

Abstract Forest managers conducting sustainable forest management are guided by the principles of sustainable use of natural resources, which involve the need for long and short-term planning in organizational units of the State Forests. Plans often differ from reality by the time individual treatments and cuts are to be performed. For economic reasons, it is important to optimize harvest planning, not only focusing on the volume of timber to be harvested, but also the price differences of individual tree species and sort types of wood. The purpose of this study was to present methods evaluating standing timber and to assess their usefulness in optimizing the harvest volume using linear programming. Stands designated to be cut were evaluated using transaction value methods, i.e. “the stumpage value method” M1, the “consumption value” method M2, as well as the net present value (NPV) method M3. The research material was obtained from the State Forests Information System (SILP) for the Marcule Forest District covering the years 2014–2018. The stand values were determined at the beginning and end of the 10-year planning period. We observed that the stand value (standing timber) differed significantly between method M2 as compared to method M1. the value of stands determined by method M3, on the other hand, decreased as the discount rate increased. In the process of optimizing the selection of stands for felling, economic criteria should also be taken into account and this is a direct measure of obtainable standing timber in terms of the cutting possibility in the given planning period. In stands where one species dominates, a simplified method of determining the value (M1) can be used, whereas in stands with significant species diversity, method M2 provides a significantly more accurate value for the cutting timber. However, if harvest volume optimization using linear programming methods is to take longer time periods into account, e.g. 30 years (three 10-year economic planning periods), the most reasonable method for determining the value of stands is the net present value method M3.

scholarly journals The Effects of Spatial Harvest Scheduling Constraints on the Value of a Medium-Sized Forest Holding in the Southeastern United States

2005 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 185-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wise H. Batten ◽  
Pete Bettinger ◽  
Jianping Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Forest Planning ◽  
Harvest Scheduling ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Period 2 ◽  
Planning Technique ◽  
Programming Solution ◽  
Forest Plans

Abstract Forest plans related to a number of spatial harvest scheduling scenarios were developed for a medium-sized forest holding using a heuristic forest planning technique (tabu search). Green-up periods of 2 to 7 years were assessed in conjunction with the two types of adjacency constraints. The results indicate for this one property that a short green-up period (2–3 years) did not significantly affect the economic value of the forest holding studied. Longer green-up periods and smaller maximum clearcut sizes could reduce the net present value of this forest holding by as much as 5 to 15% depending on the clearcut adjacency rules used. In a validation of the heuristic solutions, we found that the best solution generated with the heuristic (for three separate problems) was within 0.25% of the integer programming solution. South. J. Appl. For. 29(4):185–193.

Seed Orchard Replacement Guidelines: A Linear Programming Approach

1991 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 117-125
Author(s):  
Jay O'Laughlin ◽  
Christopher M. Whatley ◽  
Craig R. McKinley
Keyword(s):  
Linear Programming ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
Seed Orchard ◽  
Planning Horizon ◽  
Linear Programming Model ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
Specific Production ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Linear Programming Approach

Abstract A linear programming model is used to determine when to replace a seed orchard with subsequent rotations reflecting additional genetic improvements. The objective is to maximize the net present value of the orchard while meeting specific production targets of exactly 1,000 pounds of seed per year. The solution calls for a 39 ac orchard over the 50-year planning horizon, and provides a schedule indicating both when and how much of the orchard is to be replaced. Slightly more than half (55%) of the first orchard rotation is replaced between years 13 and 21—roughly 13% in year 13, 14% in year 15, 16% in year 17, 4% in year 19, and 8% in year 21. The remaining 45% of the orchard is replaced at the maximum orchard age of 25. To meet production needs in years 25 through 34 without using additional orchard acreage, 2,550 pounds of surplus seed are produced between years 13 and 24. South. J. Appl. For. 15(3):117-125.

scholarly journals EFEITO DAS RESTRIÇÕES ESPACIAIS DE ADJACÊNCIA NO PLANEJAMENTO FLORESTAL OTIMIZADO

FLORESTA ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucas Rezende Gomide ◽  
Julio Eduardo Arce ◽  
Arinei Lindbeck da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Linear Programming ◽  
Integer Linear Programming ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Forest Planning ◽  
Type I ◽  
Harvest Scheduling ◽  
Forest Harvest ◽  
Horizon Planning ◽  
Management Alternatives ◽  
The Impact

O objetivo do estudo foi aplicar restrições espaciais de adjacência no agendamento da colheita florestal em um modelo tradicional de planejamento florestal. Foi analisado e comparado o impacto no VPL (valor presente líquido) e na produção volumétrica de madeira. A área de estudo foi composta por 52 talhões de eucalipto. Foram simuladas 254 alternativas de manejo, sendo então criados 4 cenários de agendamento da colheita florestal envolvendo o uso da programação linear inteira, seguindo a formulação pelo modelo tipo I com maximização do VPL e um horizonte de planejamento de 7 anos. O cenário 1 não considerou a adjacência, enquanto que os cenários 2 (URM), 3 (ARM50) e 4 (ARM70) continham restrições de adjacência. Os resultados demonstraram que as restrições de adjacência reduzem o VPL em 3,74%, 2,24% e 2,10%, e a produção volumétrica em 2,92%, 1,79% e 1,73%, nos cenários 2, 3 e 4 respectivamente. Porém, os cenários 2, 3 e 4 obtiveram sucesso no controle de corte de talhões adjacentes, segundo suas restrições, e impedindo a formação de extensas áreas contiguas como encontrado no cenário 1 (153,25 ha).Palavras-chave: Programação linear inteira; restrição URM; restrição ARM. AbstractSpatial adjacency constraints effect in optimized forest planning. The objective of the study was to apply the spatial adjacency constraints in the forest harvest scheduling when using the traditional forest planning model. It was analyzed and compared the impact on NPV (Net Present Value) and the volumetric production of wood. The area of study was formed by 52 stands of eucalyptus. A total of 254 forest management alternatives were simulated, where 4 forest harvest scheduling scenarios contained the integer linear programming were created, following the model type I and the maximization of the NPV for 7 years of the horizon planning. Spatial adjacency constraints were applied to scenarios 2 (URM), 3 (ARM50) and 4 (ARM70) but not to scenario 1. The results showed that the spatial adjacency constraints reduced NPV in 3,74%, 2,24% and 2,10%, and the volumetric production in 2,92%, 1,79% e 1,73% through the scenarios 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Therefore, the scenarios 2, 3, and 4 obtained success in controlling the adjacent harvested stands, according to their restrictions, and avoiding the creation of large and continuous areas such as observed in the scenario 1 (153,25ha).Keywords: Integer linear programming; URM constraint; ARM constraint.

scholarly journals Incorporating Regeneration Effort as a Decision Variable in Tactical Harvest Scheduling

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 61-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Boston ◽  
John Sessions ◽  
Robin Rose ◽  
Will Hoskins
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Spatial Arrangement ◽  
Decision Variable ◽  
Harvest Scheduling ◽  
Slight Improvement ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Scheduling Model ◽  
Heuristic Procedures ◽  
Value Determination ◽  
Forest Managers

Abstract A variable green-up period is incorporated into a tactical harvest scheduling model to allow for the regeneration policy to be included as a decision variable. The benefit of this formulation was demonstrated by solving a 91-logging unit forest plan under four different green-up policies.The first three policies used fixed green-up periods of 2, 3, and 4 years. The fourth policy uses a variable green-up period where the model selects the regeneration effort that determines the green-up period stand by stand. This policy allows each harvested stand to choose among a 2-, 3-,or 4-year green-up period. The variable green-up period resulted in a slight improvement in the net present value because its total was approximately $3,000 or $1.11/ac higher for the total planning area, not just the harvested acres when compared with the best solutions when 4-, 3-, and 2-year fixed green-up periods were used. The variable green-up constraint adds a level of complexity to the spatial harvest scheduling problem that is easily incorporated into a variety of heuristic procedures because they do not require that all combinations of harvest units be specified before solving the problem. The results cannot be generalized to other forests because the spatial arrangement of the stands is a major component in the value determination. However, using the methodology presented, forest managers can evaluate their own alternatives that may improve the returns from managing their resources.

Robust Constrained Optimization of Short- and Long-Term Net Present Value for Closed-Loop Reservoir Management

SPE Journal ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (03) ◽  
pp. 849-864 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.. Chen ◽  
G.. Li ◽  
A.C.. C. Reynolds
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Production Optimization ◽  
Nonlinear Constraints ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear Constraints ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
Reservoir Description

Summary In this paper, we develop an efficient algorithm for production optimization under linear and nonlinear constraints and an uncertain reservoir description. The linear and nonlinear constraints are incorporated into the objective function using the augmented Lagrangian method, and the bound constraints are enforced using a gradient-projection trust-region method. Robust long-term optimization maximizes the expected life-cycle net present value (NPV) over a set of geological models, which represent the uncertainty in reservoir description. Because the life-cycle optimal controls may be in conflict with the operator's objective of maximizing short-time production, the method is adapted to maximize the expectation of short-term NPV over the next 1 or 2 years subject to the constraint that the life-cycle NPV will not be substantially decreased. The technique is applied to synthetic reservoir problems to demonstrate its efficiency and robustness. Experiments show that the field cannot always achieve the optimal NPV using the optimal well controls obtained on the basis of a single but uncertain reservoir model, whereas the application of robust optimization reduces this risk significantly. Experimental results also show that robust sequential optimization on each short-term period is not able to achieve an expected life-cycle NPV as high as that obtained with robust long-term optimization.

A Decision Advisor to Manage the Implications of Alloy 600 Issues

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. K. Perdue ◽  
C. W. Mycoff ◽  
J. Woodcock ◽  
T. A. Meyer ◽  
R. Llovet
Keyword(s):  
Crack Propagation ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Computer Software ◽  
Alloy 600 ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Planning Period ◽  
Software Model ◽  
Plant Operations ◽  
Plant Level ◽  
The Impact

A Decision Advisor process has been designed to efficiently support plant level decisions, and the process has been specialized to support decisions pertaining to plant locations that have alloy 600 degradation issues. The process guides the decision maker through phases of framing the problem, developing options, selecting alternatives, and planning. The decision making process is supported by a computer software model that quantifies the net present value costs of each identified strategy. The Alloy 600 Decision Advisor model calculates crack initiation and growth and the impact on operations and revenue for a given inspection and repair strategy. The three major modules in a component Decision Advisor are: engineering issues of crack propagation and detection, plant operations, and financial impacts. The crack propagation and detection module captures the current state-of-the-art knowledge regarding alloy 600 (and alloy 182/82 for welds) degradation, combining statistical analysis of historical data and expert engineering judgment to produce a forecast of cracks and leaks over the relevant planning period. This is input to the plant operational impact module, which calculates the resulting impacts on plant revenue and cost drivers. The model can be readily updated as new information (such as inspection results) comes available. Results are provided in a report describing the goals and objectives together with the technical and financial input, and providing the plant-level net present value cost of each alternative. The net present value costs include typical costs of implementation (such as inspections and repairs) as well as the effects on power production and plant revenue.

scholarly journals SEQUENTIAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING UNDER EXTREME CASH FL OW SITUATIONS: EVIDENCE USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 877-900 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenqing Zhang ◽  
Prasad Padmanabhan ◽  
Chia-Hsing Huang
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Value Analysis

Uncertainty influences a decision maker's choices when making sequential capital investment decisions. With the possibility of extremely negative cash inflows, firms may need to curtail operations significantly. Traditional Net Present Value analysis does not allow for efficient management of these problems. In addition, firm managers may behave irrationally by accepting negative Net Present Value projects in the short term. This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation based model to provide policy insights on how to incorporate extreme cash flows and manager irrationality scenarios into the capital budgeting process. This paper presents evidence that firms with irrational managers and experiencing extremely negative cash flows may, under certain conditions, reap long term rewards associated with the acceptance of negative Net Present Value projects in the short term. These benefits are largest if cost ratios (discount rates) are small, or investment horizons are high. We argue that acceptance of short term negative Net Present Value projects implies the purchase of a long term real option which can generate positive long term cash flows under certain conditions.

scholarly journals Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part I: general description and linear programming

2008 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 471-482 ◽  
Author(s):  
João C. F. Borges Júnior ◽  
Paulo A. Ferreira ◽  
Camilo L. T. Andrade ◽  
Bettina Hedden-Dunkhorst
Keyword(s):  
Linear Programming ◽  
Computational Modeling ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
Linear Programming Model ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
General Description ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Financial Return

Linear programming models are effective tools to support initial or periodic planning of agricultural enterprises, requiring, however, technical coefficients that can be determined using computer simulation models. This paper, presented in two parts, deals with the development, application and tests of a methodology and of a computational modeling tool to support planning of irrigated agriculture activities. Part I aimed at the development and application, including sensitivity analysis, of a multiyear linear programming model to optimize the financial return and water use, at farm level for Jaíba irrigation scheme, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using data on crop irrigation requirement and yield, obtained from previous simulation with MCID model. The linear programming model outputted a crop pattern to which a maximum total net present value of R$ 372,723.00 for the four years period, was obtained. Constraints on monthly water availability, labor, land and production were critical in the optimal solution. In relation to the water use optimization, it was verified that an expressive reductions on the irrigation requirements may be achieved by small reductions on the maximum total net present value.

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