scholarly journals Setting Performance Standards for a Cost-Effective Human Immunodeficiency Virus Cure Strategy in South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. David Paltiel ◽  
Amy Zheng ◽  
Milton C. Weinstein ◽  
Melanie R. Gaynes ◽  
Robin Wood ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundReports of a single case of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) eradication suggest that elimination of HIV from individuals is possible. Anticipating both increased research funding and the development of effective, durable cure technologies, we describe the circumstances under which a cure might improve survival and be cost-effective in South Africa.MethodsWe adapted a simulation model comparing a hypothetical cure strategy (“Cure”) to the standard of care, lifetime antiretroviral therapy (“LifetimeART”) among adherent South Africans (58% female; mean age 33.8 years; mean CD4 257/µL; virologic suppression ≥1 year). We portrayed cure as a single intervention, producing sustained viral eradication without ART. We considered both a plausible, more imminently achievable “Baseline Scenario” and a more aspirational “Optimistic Scenario”. Inputs (Baseline/Optimistic) included the following: 50%/75% efficacy; 0.6%/0.0% fatal toxicity; 0.37%/0.085% monthly relapse over 5 years (0.185%/0.0425% per month thereafter); and $2000/$500 cost. These inputs were varied extensively in sensitivity analysis.ResultsAt baseline, Cure was “dominated,” yielding lower discounted life expectancy (19.31 life-years [LY] vs 19.37 LY) and greater discounted lifetime costs ($13 800 vs $13 700) than LifetimeART. Under optimistic assumptions, Cure was “cost-saving,” producing greater survival (19.91 LY) and lower lifetime costs ($11 000) than LifetimeART. Findings were highly sensitive to data assumptions, leaving little middle ground where a tradeoff existed between improved survival and higher costs.ConclusionsOnly under the most favorable performance assumptions will an HIV cure strategy prove clinically and economically justifiable in South Africa. The scientific pursuit of a cure should not undermine continued expansions of access to proven, effective, and cost-effective ART.

Author(s):  
Krishna P Reddy ◽  
Claudia M Denkinger ◽  
Tobias Broger ◽  
Nicole C McCann ◽  
Ankur Gupta-Wright ◽  
...  

Abstract Background A novel urine lipoarabinomannan assay (FujiLAM) has higher sensitivity and higher cost than the first-generation AlereLAM assay. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of FujiLAM for tuberculosis testing among hospitalized people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), irrespective of symptoms. Methods We used a microsimulation model to project clinical and economic outcomes of 3 testing strategies: (1) sputum Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert), (2) sputum Xpert plus urine AlereLAM (Xpert+AlereLAM), (3) sputum Xpert plus urine FujiLAM (Xpert+FujiLAM). The modeled cohort matched that of a 2-country clinical trial. We applied diagnostic yields from a retrospective study (yields for Xpert/Xpert+AlereLAM/Xpert+FujiLAM among those with CD4 <200 cells/µL: 33%/62%/70%; among those with CD4 ≥200 cells/µL: 33%/35%/47%). Costs of Xpert/AlereLAM/FujiLAM were US$15/3/6 (South Africa) and $25/3/6 (Malawi). Xpert+FujiLAM was considered cost-effective if its incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (US$/year-of-life saved) was <$940 (South Africa) and <$750 (Malawi). We varied key parameters in sensitivity analysis and performed a budget impact analysis of implementing FujiLAM countrywide. Results Compared with Xpert+AlereLAM, Xpert+FujiLAM increased life expectancy by 0.2 years for those tested in South Africa and Malawi. Xpert+FujiLAM was cost-effective in both countries. Xpert+FujiLAM for all patients remained cost-effective compared with sequential testing and CD4-stratified testing strategies. FujiLAM use added 3.5% (South Africa) and 4.7% (Malawi) to 5-year healthcare costs of tested patients, primarily reflecting ongoing HIV treatment costs among survivors. Conclusions FujiLAM with Xpert for tuberculosis testing in hospitalized people with HIV is likely to increase life expectancy and be cost-effective at the currently anticipated price in South Africa and Malawi. Additional studies should evaluate FujiLAM in clinical practice settings.


2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (10) ◽  
pp. 1487-1491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean B Nachega ◽  
Nadia A Sam-Agudu ◽  
Lynne M Mofenson ◽  
Mauro Schechter ◽  
John W Mellors

Abstract Although significant progress has been made, the latest data from low- and middle-income countries show substantial gaps in reaching the third “90%” (viral suppression) of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals, especially among vulnerable and key populations. This article discusses critical gaps and promising, evidence-based solutions. There is no simple and/or single approach to achieve the last 90%. This will require multifaceted, scalable strategies that engage people living with human immunodeficiency virus, motivate long-term treatment adherence, and are community-entrenched and ‑supported, cost-effective, and tailored to a wide range of global communities.


2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 130-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
OLIVIA HERD ◽  
FLAVIA FRANCIES ◽  
JEFFREY KOTZEN ◽  
TRUDY SMITH ◽  
ZWIDE NXUMALO ◽  
...  

2003 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Bam ◽  
Alta Kritzinger ◽  
Brenda Louw

The high prevalence and serious sequelae of the pediatric human immunodeficiency virus (HIV/AIDS) in South Africa pose great challenges for clinicians involved in early intervention to develop appropriate interdisciplinary programmes for primary prevention of transmission of the virus as well as secondary interventions directed at the early management of the unique combination of serious health problems, neuro-developmental needs and caregiving circumstances of the infants. Opsomming Die hoë prevalensie en ernstige gevolge van die pediatriese menslike immuniteitsgebrek-virus (MIV/VIGS) in Suid-Afrika stel groot uitdagings aan klinici betrokke by vroeë intervensie om toepaslike interdissiplinêre programme te ontwikkel vir primêre voorkoming van oordrag van die virus asook sekondêre intervensies gerig op die vroeë hantering van die babas se unieke kombinasie van ernstige Gesondheids-probleme, neuro-ontwikkelingsbehoeftes en versorgingsomstandighede. *Please note: This is a reduced version of the abstract. Please refer to PDF for full text.


2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean E. Collins ◽  
Philip M. Grant ◽  
Francois Uwinkindi ◽  
Annie Talbot ◽  
Eric Seruyange ◽  
...  

Abstract Background.  Many human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients remain on nevirapine-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) despite safety and efficacy concerns. Switching to a rilpivirine-based regimen is an alternative, but there is little experience with rilpivirine in sub-Saharan Africa where induction of rilpivirine metabolism by nevirapine, HIV subtype, and dietary differences could potentially impact efficacy. Methods.  We conducted an open-label noninferiority study of virologically suppressed (HIV-1 ribonucleic acid [RNA] < 50 copies/mL) HIV-1-infected Rwandan adults taking nevirapine plus 2 nucleos(t)ide reverse-transcriptase inhibitors. One hundred fifty participants were randomized 2:1 to switch to coformulated rilpivirine-emtricitabine-tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (referenced as the Switch Arm) or continue current therapy. The primary efficacy endpoint was HIV-1 RNA < 200 copies/mL at week 24 assessed by the US Food and Drug Administration Snapshot algorithm with a noninferiority margin of 12%. Results.  Between April and September 2014, 184 patients were screened, and 150 patients were enrolled; 99 patients switched to rilpivirine-emtricitabine-tenofovir, and 51 patients continued their nevirapine-based ART. The mean age was 42 years and 43% of participants were women. At week 24, virologic suppression (HIV-1 RNA level <200 copies/mL) was maintained in 93% and 92% in the Switch Arm versus the continuation arm, respectively. The Switch Arm was noninferior to continued nevirapine-based ART (efficacy difference 0.8%; 95% confidence interval, −7.5% to +12.0%). Both regimens were generally safe and well tolerated, although 2 deaths, neither attributed to study medications, occurred in participants in the Switch Arm. Conclusions.  A switch from nevirapine-based ART to rilpivirine-emtricitabine-tenofovir disoproxil fumarate had similar virologic efficacy to continued nevirapine-based ART after 24 weeks with few adverse events.


2019 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. N. Abuelezam ◽  
A. W. McCormick ◽  
E. D. Surface ◽  
T. Fussell ◽  
K. A. Freedberg ◽  
...  

AbstractUNAIDS established fast-track targets of 73% and 86% viral suppression among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals by 2020 and 2030, respectively. The epidemiologic impact of achieving these goals is unknown. The HIV-Calibrated Dynamic Model, a calibrated agent-based model of HIV transmission, is used to examine scenarios of incremental improvements to the testing and antiretroviral therapy (ART) continuum in South Africa in 2015. The speed of intervention availability is explored, comparing policies for their predicted effects on incidence, prevalence and achievement of fast-track targets in 2020 and 2030. Moderate (30%) improvements in the continuum will not achieve 2020 or 2030 targets and have modest impacts on incidence and prevalence. Improving the continuum by 80% and increasing availability reduces incidence from 2.54 to 0.80 per 100 person-years (−1.73, interquartile range (IQR): −1.42, −2.13) and prevalence from 26.0 to 24.6% (−1.4 percentage points, IQR: −0.88, −1.92) from 2015 to 2030 and achieves fast track targets in 2020 and 2030. Achieving 90-90-90 in South Africa is possible with large improvements to the testing and treatment continuum. The epidemiologic impact of these improvements depends on the balance between survival and transmission benefits of ART with the potential for incidence to remain high.


2019 ◽  
Vol 220 (5) ◽  
pp. 841-851 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa J Blumenthal ◽  
Charlotte Schutz ◽  
David Barr ◽  
Michael Locketz ◽  
Vickie Marshall ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundDespite increasing numbers of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected South Africans receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), tuberculosis (TB) remains the leading cause of mortality. Approximately 25% of patients treated for TB have microbiologically unconfirmed diagnoses. We assessed whether elevated Kaposi’s sarcoma–associated herpesvirus (KSHV) viral load (VL) contributes to mortality in hospitalized HIV-infected patients investigated for TB.MethodsSix hundred eighty-two HIV-infected patients admitted to Khayelitsha Hospital, South Africa, were recruited, investigated for TB, and followed for 12 weeks. KSHV serostatus, peripheral blood KSHV-VL, and KSHV-associated clinical correlates were evaluated.ResultsMedian CD4 count was 62 (range, 0–526) cells/μL; KSHV seropositivity was 30.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 27%–34%); 5.8% had detectable KSHV-VL (median, 199.1 [range, 13.4–2.2 × 106] copies/106 cells); 22% died. Elevated KSHV-VL was associated with mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 6.5 [95% CI, 1.3–32.4]) in patients without TB or other microbiologically confirmed coinfections (n = 159). Six patients had “possible KSHV-inflammatory cytokine syndrome” (KICS): 5 died, representing significantly worse survival (P < .0001), and 1 patient was diagnosed with KSHV-associated multicentric Castleman disease at autopsy.ConclusionsGiven the association of mortality with elevated KSHV-VL in critically ill HIV-infected patients with suspected but not microbiologically confirmed TB, KSHV-VL and KICS criteria may guide diagnostic and therapeutic evaluation.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document