Estimating Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Discord

2020 ◽  
pp. 290-324
Author(s):  
Kajal Lahiri ◽  
Wuwei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Shannon Entropy ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Survey Of Professional Forecasters ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Standard Vector ◽  
Information Framework

We apply generalized beta and triangular distributions to histograms from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to estimate forecast uncertainty, shocks. and discord using an information framework, and we compare these with moment-based estimates. We find that these two approaches produce analogous results, except in cases where the underlying densities deviate significantly from normality. Even though the Shannon entropy is more inclusive of different facets of a forecast density, we find that with SPF forecasts it is largely driven by the variance of the densities. We use Jenson–Shannon Information to measure ex ante “news” or “uncertainty shocks” in real time, and we find that this “news” is closely related to revisions in forecast means, is countercyclical, and raises uncertainty. Using standard vector autoregression analysis, we confirm that uncertainty affects the real sector of the economy negatively.

Blockchain Technology Is a Boost to Cyber Security

2019 ◽  
pp. 254-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sowmiya B. ◽  
Poovammal E.
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Blockchain Technology ◽  
The World ◽  
Security Challenge ◽  
Real Time Application ◽  
Share Information

The information in any real-time application is needed to be digitalized across the world. Since digitalization of data happens, there comes the role of privacy. Blockchain could address the security challenge that happens in the any real sector. There are a few more challenges that prevail in the industry such as integrity in data, traceability of stored records, and interoperability among organizations that share information. This chapter says what blockchain is and applications in which blockchain technology could solve the existing challenges where they lack security, privacy, integrity, and interoperability.

scholarly journals Real-time Fault Diagnosis Method of Battery System Based on Shannon Entropy

2017 ◽  
Vol 105 ◽  
pp. 2354-2359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenyu Sun ◽  
Peng Liu ◽  
Zhenpo Wang
Keyword(s):  
Fault Diagnosis ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Shannon Entropy ◽  
Battery System ◽  
Diagnosis Method

scholarly journals Insights and experiences from assessing the added value of PROSNOW, a prediction system to support snow management in Alpine ski resorts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judith Köberl ◽  
Hugues François ◽  
Carlo Carmagnola ◽  
Pirmin Ebner ◽  
Daniel Günther ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Significant Saving ◽  
The Real ◽  
Ski Resort ◽  
Ski Resorts ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Ex Ante

<p>Within the H2020 project PROSNOW (www.prosnow.org), a demonstrator of a forecasting system that aims at increasing the anticipatory power of ski resorts in the field of snow management has been developed and tested. The PROSNOW® demonstrator, which includes a web-based user interface, represents a meteorological prediction and snow management system with the aim to provide improved anticipation capabilities at various time-scales, spanning from a few days to the seasonal scale of several months. The system holds significant potential to increase the resilience of socio-economic stakeholders and support their real-time adaptation. However, it is expected to take some time until users will gain confidence with the service, completely realize its power and its limitations, and learn to use it in the most effective way to exploit its potential. Although the final actual added value of the PROSNOW® prediction and snowmaking system can thus only be assessed several years after its initial implementation, some ex-ante and preliminary ex-post valuations have already been carried out following the real-time testing of the demonstrator in nine Alpine pilot ski resorts in the winter season 2019/20.</p><p>We applied two different approaches to assess the added value of PROSNOW®: (i) a simulation-based approach and (ii) a survey-based approach. The simulation-based approach consisted of the ex-ante valuation of PROSNOW®’s cost saving potential in the field of snowmaking, using meteorological hindcast data and simulations from snowpack models. The approach is based on decision theory and aims at estimating the cost savings achievable by using the PROSNOW® system to support a ski resort’s daily and strategic snowmaking decisions, compared to the information sources and strategies used so far. In the survey-based approach, which included both ex-ante and ex-post elements, pilot ski resorts were asked to (e)valuate the PROSNOW® demonstrator, based on their experiences from the real-time testing in the winter season 2019/20. The survey included questions about the perceived forecasting accuracy, observed positive impacts, the experienced as well as expected usefulness of the PROSNOW® demonstrator for different areas of application within the ski resort, and the ski resort’s willingness to pay (WTP). For the latter, both direct and indirect stated preference methods (e.g. limit conjoint analysis) were applied.</p><p>Both, simulations and survey results revealed that increases in the ability to anticipate weather and snow conditions bear significant saving potentials for some ski resorts. Areas of application for which PROSNOW® is considered particularly useful include snowmaking decisions for the upcoming hours and days, the optimization of water and energy use and avoidance of snow overproduction. Even though some pilot ski resorts experienced problems with the demonstrator, the majority indicated to be willing to pay a non-zero price for the service, ranging from 2,500€ to 12,700€ per season.</p>

Sputum neutrophil elastase associates with microbiota and Pseudomonas aeruginosa in bronchiectasis

2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 2000769 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martina Oriano ◽  
Andrea Gramegna ◽  
Leonardo Terranova ◽  
Giovanni Sotgiu ◽  
Imran Sulaiman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pseudomonas Aeruginosa ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Shannon Entropy ◽  
Real Time Pcr ◽  
Neutrophil Elastase ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Rrna Gene ◽  
Respiratory Pathogens ◽  
Α Diversity ◽  
Significant Difference

IntroductionNeutrophilic inflammation is a major driver of bronchiectasis pathophysiology, and neutrophil elastase activity is the most promising biomarker evaluated in sputum to date. How active neutrophil elastase correlates with the lung microbiome in bronchiectasis is still unexplored. We aimed to understand whether active neutrophil elastase is associated with low microbial diversity and distinct microbiome characteristics.MethodsAn observational, cross-sectional study was conducted at the bronchiectasis programme of the Policlinico Hospital in Milan, Italy, where adults with bronchiectasis were enrolled between March 2017 and March 2019. Active neutrophil elastase was measured on sputum collected during stable state, microbiota analysed through 16S rRNA gene sequencing, molecular assessment of respiratory pathogens carried out through real-time PCR and clinical data collected.ResultsAmong 185 patients enrolled, decreasing α-diversity, evaluated through the Shannon entropy (ρ −0.37, p<0.00001) and Pielou's evenness (ρ −0.36, p<0.00001) and richness (ρ −0.33, p<0.00001), was significantly correlated with increasing elastase. A significant difference in median levels of Shannon entropy as detected between patients with neutrophil elastase ≥20 µg·mL−1 (median 3.82, interquartile range 2.20–4.96) versus neutrophil elastase <20 µg·mL−1 (4.88, 3.68–5.80; p<0.0001). A distinct microbiome was found in these two groups, mainly characterised by enrichment with Pseudomonas in the high-elastase group and with Streptococcus in the low-elastase group. Further confirmation of the association of Pseudomonas aeruginosa with elevated active neutrophil elastase was found based on standard culture and targeted real-time PCR.ConclusionsHigh levels of active neutrophil elastase are associated to low microbiome diversity and specifically to P. aeruginosa infection.

Conceiving Perfectible Theories in Management Through Adaptive Framing

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
William Acar ◽  
Jaume Franquesa ◽  
Rev. Fr. Jino O. Mwaka
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Theory Building ◽  
Management Theory ◽  
Theory Evaluation ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Management Schemes ◽  
Constructivist Perspective ◽  
Formal Theories

Extant studies of theory evaluation rely on hindsight even though editors' entreaties are meant to be studied ex ante and applied in real time. The authors elaborate on the definitional requirements of theory and ways to appraise it. The authors present a synoptic chronology of the main trends in management theory evaluation, and discuss the methodological differences between formal theories and actual management schemes. This discussion leads us to adopt a constructivist perspective and replace “Popperian falsifiability” when inapplicable to management. The authors then introduce the concept of adaptive framing as a tripartite process subsuming the criteria of novelty, practicability and extendibility through consistency, which the authors argue to be the necessary requirements for perfectible theory-building in management.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indices Based on Nowcast and Forecast Error Distributions

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (5) ◽  
pp. 650-655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Rossi ◽  
Tatevik Sekhposyan
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Error ◽  
Error Distribution ◽  
Macroeconomic Variable ◽  
Survey Of Professional Forecasters ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Error Distributions ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Uncertainty Indices

We propose new indices to measure macroeconomic uncertainty. The indices measure how unexpected a realization of a representative macroeconomic variable is relative to the unconditional forecast error distribution. We use forecast error distributions based on the nowcasts and forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We further compare the new indices with those proposed in the literature and assess their macroeconomic impact.

Measuring Uncertainty

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (3) ◽  
pp. 1177-1216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle Jurado ◽  
Sydney C. Ludvigson ◽  
Serena Ng
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Real Activity ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty

This paper exploits a data rich environment to provide direct econometric estimates of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty. Our estimates display significant independent variations from popular uncertainty proxies, suggesting that much of the variation in the proxies is not driven by uncertainty. Quantitatively important uncertainty episodes appear far more infrequently than indicated by popular uncertainty proxies, but when they do occur, they are larger, more persistent, and are more correlated with real activity. Our estimates provide a benchmark to evaluate theories for which uncertainty shocks play a role in business cycles. (JEL C53, D81, E32, G12, G35, L25)

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