Bonobo population dynamics: Past patterns and future predictions for the Lola ya Bonobo population using demographic modelling

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa J. Faust ◽  
Claudine André ◽  
Raphaël Belais ◽  
Fanny Minesi ◽  
Zjef Pereboom ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Pan Troglodytes ◽  
Growth Trajectories ◽  
Demographic Model ◽  
Pan African ◽  
Demographic Modelling ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Demographic Patterns ◽  
Future Population ◽  
Future Growth

Wildlife sanctuaries rescue, rehabilitate, reintroduce and provide life-long care for orphaned and injured animals. Understanding a sanctuary’s population dynamics—patterns in arrival, mortality and projected changes in population size—allows careful planning for future needs. Building on previous work on the population dynamics of chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) in sanctuaries of the Pan African Sanctuary Alliance (PASA; Faust et al. 2011), this chapter extends analyses to the only PASA bonobo sanctuary. Its authors analysed historic demographic patterns and projected future population dynamics using an individual-based demographic model. The population has been growing at 6.7 per cent per year, driven by arrivals of new individuals (mean = 5.5 arrivals per year). Several model scenarios projecting varying arrival rates, releases and breeding scenarios clarify potential future growth trajectories for the sanctuary. This research illustrates how data on historic dynamics can be modelled to inform future sanctuary capacity and management needs. Les sanctuaires de faune secourent, réhabilitent, réintroduisent, et fournissent des soins pour toute la vie aux animaux orphelins et blessés. Comprendre les dynamiques de la population d’un sanctuaire—les motifs d’arrivée, mortalité, et de changements projetés de la taille de la population—permet une planification prudente pour les nécessités du futur. En se basant sur le travail déjà fait sur les dynamiques de la population chimpanzé (Pan troglodytes) dans les sanctuaires du Pan African Sanctuary Alliance (PASA; Faust et al. 2011), nous étendons notre analyse au seul sanctuaire bonobo par PASA. Nous avons analysé les motifs démographiques historiques et avons projeté les futures dynamiques de la population en utilisant un modèle démographique basé sur l’individu. La population augmente de 6.7 per cent par an, poussée par l’arrivée de nouveaux individus (moyenne = 5.5 arrivées par an). Plusieurs scénarios modèles montrent une trajectoire de potentielle croissance pour le sanctuaire. Cette recherche illustre comment modeler les données sur les dynamiques historiques pour informer la capacité future du sanctuaire et les besoins gestionnaires.

scholarly journals A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

Koedoe ◽  
1999 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A.M. Woodd
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
National Park ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Demographic Model ◽  
Elephant Population ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Term Data ◽  
Future Population ◽  
Future Growth

An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

scholarly journals Ecología de las poblaciones de plantas en una selva húmeda de México

2017 ◽  
pp. 121
Author(s):  
Miguel Martínez-Ramos ◽  
Elena Álvarez-Buylla
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Life History Evolution ◽  
Life Forms ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Tropical Rain Forests ◽  
Field Station ◽  
Plant Life Forms ◽  
Demographic Patterns ◽  
Plant Population Ecology ◽  
Conservation And Management

This paper reviewing plant population ecology studies that have done in Mexican tropical rain forests, particularly at the Los Tuxtlas Tropical Field Station (UNAM). The review considers next topics: (i) population structure and demographic patterns, (ii) population dynamics, (iii) life-history evolution, and (iv) the importance of demography and genetics for conservation and management of tropical rain forest plant products. The studies show an important advance in the description of patterns, in the analysis of population dynamics, and in the detection of some key demographic elements that can be important for forest conservation and management. However, the understanding of causes that originate such patterns and dynamics is yet poor. The studies have focused mainly on abundant arboreal plant species; other plant life-forms and rare species have received virtually null attention. After pointing out conclusions gained from our review, we propose some perspectives for future research.

scholarly journals Quantifying whether different demographic models produce incongruent results on population dynamics of two long-term studied rodent species

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-26
Author(s):  
Giovanni Amori ◽  
Valentina De Silvestro ◽  
Paolo Ciucci ◽  
Luca Luiselli
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Myodes Glareolus ◽  
Suitable Model ◽  
Demographic Model ◽  
Apodemus Flavicollis ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
Long Term Studies

Abstract1. Population density (ind/ha) of long-term (>15 years) series of CMR populations, using distinct demographic models designed for both open and closed populations, were analysed for two sympatric species of rodents (Myodes glareolus and Apodemus flavicollis) from a mountain area in central Italy, in order to test the relative performance of various employed demographic models. In particular, the hypothesis that enumeration models systematically underestimate the population size of a given population was tested.2. Overall, we compared the performance of 7 distinct demographic models, including both closed and open models, for each study species. Although the two species revealed remarkable intrinsic differences in demography traits (for instance, a lower propensity for being recaptured in Apodemus flavicollis), the Robust Design appeared to be the best fitting model, showing that it is the most suitable model for long-term studies.3. Among the various analysed demographic models, Jolly-Seber returned the lower estimates of population density for both species. Thus, this demographic model could not be suggested for being applied for long-term studies of small mammal populations because it tends to remarkably underestimate the effective population size. Nonetheless, yearly estimates of population density by Jolly-Seber correlated positively with yearly estimates of population density by closed population models, thus showing that interannual trends in population dynamics were uncovered by both types of demographic models, although with different values in terms of true population size.

Drivers of demography: past challenges and a promise for a changed future

2021 ◽  
pp. 115-130
Author(s):  
Pedro F. Quintana-Ascencio ◽  
Eric S. Menges ◽  
Geoffrey S. Cook ◽  
Johan Ehrlén ◽  
Michelle E. Afkhami
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Future Developments ◽  
Projections And Predictions ◽  
Demographic Modelling ◽  
Experimental Approaches ◽  
Closed Systems ◽  
Metapopulation Models

There is an urgent need to understand how populations and metapopulations respond to shifts in the environment to mitigate the consequences of human actions and global change. Identifying environmental variables/factors affecting population dynamics and the nature of their impacts is fundamental to improve projections and predictions. This chapter examines how environmental drivers, both continuous (stress) and episodic (disturbance), are incorporated in demographic modelling across many types of organisms and environments, using both observational and experimental approaches to characterise drivers. It critically summarises examples of the main approaches and identifies major accomplishments, challenges, and limitations. The chapter points to promising approaches and possible future developments. In the initial sections, models in closed systems without migration among populations are considered. The chapter then focuses on metapopulation models, emphasising the importance of understanding drivers affecting migration and differential extinction among populations. Finally, it concludes with a discussion of some important and general problems associated with assessing how population dynamics may be affected by environmental drivers that are dynamic, nonlinear, and with indirect and/or interacting effects with other drivers..

scholarly journals Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (13) ◽  
pp. 6671-6681 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radoslav Kozma ◽  
Mette Lillie ◽  
Blas M. Benito ◽  
Jens-Christian Svenning ◽  
Jacob Höglund
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Whole Genome ◽  
Future Population

Two Models for Multiregional Population Dynamics

1973 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
G Feeney
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
General Model ◽  
Nonlinear Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Demographic Model ◽  
Interregional Migration ◽  
New Model ◽  
Migration Rates ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear

A general linear demographic model is derived which subsumes a wide variety of previously proposed population models. The general model includes in particular the linear model of interregional population growth and distribution developed by Rogers and others. One feature of this model is criticized, the allocation of outmigrants from any region in constant proportions among possible destination regions. Insofar as persons migrate to economic opportunities, outmigrants will distribute themselves among regions in proportion to these opportunities. Insofar as the economy of a region services its population, opportunities will vary directly with population. This suggests the introduction of a new model which allows for the variable allocation of outmigrants from each region according to the distribution of population among possible destination regions. Such a model is proposed, and it turns out to be nonlinear. The linear and nonlinear models are compared by applying them to the analysis of migration between three regions of the United States during 1955–1960. In the course of developing the new model, a set of interregional migration statistics is defined which eliminates the imperfect duality between interregional in- and out-migration rates.

scholarly journals Effects of species invasion on population dynamics, vital rates, and life histories of the native species

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Vincenzi ◽  
Alain J Crivelli ◽  
Dusan Jesensek ◽  
Ellen Campbell ◽  
John C Garza
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Rainbow Trout ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Life Histories ◽  
Life History Theory ◽  
Individual Growth ◽  
Growth Trajectories ◽  
Natural Environments ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Marble Trout

AbstractInvasions occurring in natural environments provide the opportunity to study how vital rates change and life histories evolve in the presence of a competing species. In this work, we estimate differences in reproductive traits, individual growth trajectories, survival, life histories, and population dynamics between a native species living in allopatry and in sympatry with an invasive species of the same taxonomic Family. We used as a model system marble trout Salmo marmoratus (native species) and rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss (non-native) living in the Idrijca River (Slovenia). An impassable waterfall separates the stream in two sectors only a few hundred meters apart: a downstream sector in which marble trout live in sympatry with rainbow trout and a upstream sector in which marble trout live in allopatry. We used an overarching modeling approach that uses tag-recapture and genetic data (> 2,500 unique marble and rainbow trout were sampled and SNP-genotyped) to reconstruct pedigrees, test for synchrony of population dynamics, and model survival and growth while accounting for individual heterogeneity in performance. The population dynamics of the two marble trout populations and of rainbow trout were overall synchronous. We found higher prevalence of younger parents, higher mortality, and lower population density in marble trout living in sympatry with rainbow trout than in marble trout living in allopatry. There were no differences in the average individual growth trajectories between the two marble trout populations. Faster life histories of marble trout living in sympatry with rainbow trout are consistent with predictions of life-history theory.

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