demographic modelling
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Genes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 2009
Author(s):  
Mohadeseh Sadat Tahami ◽  
Vlad Dincă ◽  
Kyung Min Lee ◽  
Roger Vila ◽  
Mukta Joshi ◽  
...  

We studied the evolutionary relationship of two widely distributed parapatric butterfly species, Melitaea athalia and Melitaea celadussa, using the ddRAD sequencing approach, as well as genital morphology and mtDNA data. M. athalia was retrieved as paraphyletic with respect to M. celadussa. Several cases of mito-nuclear discordance and morpho-genetic mismatch were found in the contact zone. A strongly diverged and marginally sympatric clade of M. athalia from the Balkans was revealed. An in-depth analysis of genomic structure detected high levels of admixture between M. athalia and M. celadussa at the contact zone, though not reaching the Balkan clade. The demographic modelling of populations supported the intermediate genetic make-up of European M. athalia populations with regards to M. celadussa and the Balkan clade. However, the dissimilarity matrix of genotype data (PCoA) suggested the Balkan lineage having a genetic component that is unrelated to the athalia-celadussa group. Although narrowly sympatric, almost no signs of gene flow were found between the main M. athalia group and the Balkan clade. We propose two possible scenarios on the historical evolution of our model taxa and the role of the last glacial maximum in shaping their current distribution. Finally, we discuss the complexities regarding the taxonomic delimitation of parapatric taxa.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iwona Giska ◽  
João Pimenta ◽  
Liliana Farelo ◽  
Pierre Boursot ◽  
Klaus Hackländer ◽  
...  

Understanding the evolution of local adaptations is a central aim of evolutionary biology and key for the identification of unique populations and lineages of conservation relevance. By combining RAD sequencing and whole-genome sequencing, we identify genetic signatures of local adaptation in mountain hares (Lepus timidus) from isolated and distinctive habitats of its wide distribution: Ireland, the Alps and Fennoscandia. Demographic modelling suggested that the split of these mountain hares occurred around 20 thousand years ago, providing the opportunity to study adaptive evolution over a short timescale. Using genome-wide scans, we identified signatures of extreme differentiation among hares from distinct geographic areas that overlap with area-specific selective sweeps, suggesting targets for local adaptation. Several identified candidate genes are associated with traits related to the uniqueness of the different environments inhabited by the three groups of mountain hares, including coat colour, ability to live at high altitudes and variation in body size. In Irish mountain hares, a variant of ASIP, a gene previously implicated in introgression-driven winter coat colour variation in mountain and snowshoe hares (L. americanus), may underlie brown winter coats, reinforcing the repeated nature of evolution at ASIP moulding adaptive seasonal colouration. Comparative genomic analyses across several hare species suggested that mountain hares' adaptive variants appear predominantly species-specific. However, using coalescent simulations we also show instances where the candidate adaptive variants have been introduced via introgressive hybridization. Our work shows that standing adaptive variation, including that introgressed from other species, was a crucial component of the post-glacial dynamics of species.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bohao Fang ◽  
Paolo Momigliano ◽  
Kimmo Kahilainen ◽  
Juha Merila

The European whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) species complex is a classic example of recent adaptive radiation. Here we examine a whitefish population introduced to northern Finnish Lake Tsahkal in late 1960s, where three divergent morphs (viz. littoral, pelagic and profundal feeders) were found ten generations after. Using demographic modelling based on genomic data we show that whitefish morphs evolved during a phase of strict isolation, refuting a rapid symmetric speciation scenario. The lake is now an artificial hybrid zone between morphs originated in allopatry. Despite their current syntopy, clear genetic differentiation remains between two of the three morphs. Using admixture mapping three quantitative trait loci associated with gonad weight variation, a proxy for sexual maturity and spawning time, were identified. We suggest that ecological adaptations in spawning time evolved in allopatry are currently maintaining partial reproductive isolation in the absence of other barriers to gene flow.


2021 ◽  
pp. 115-130
Author(s):  
Pedro F. Quintana-Ascencio ◽  
Eric S. Menges ◽  
Geoffrey S. Cook ◽  
Johan Ehrlén ◽  
Michelle E. Afkhami

There is an urgent need to understand how populations and metapopulations respond to shifts in the environment to mitigate the consequences of human actions and global change. Identifying environmental variables/factors affecting population dynamics and the nature of their impacts is fundamental to improve projections and predictions. This chapter examines how environmental drivers, both continuous (stress) and episodic (disturbance), are incorporated in demographic modelling across many types of organisms and environments, using both observational and experimental approaches to characterise drivers. It critically summarises examples of the main approaches and identifies major accomplishments, challenges, and limitations. The chapter points to promising approaches and possible future developments. In the initial sections, models in closed systems without migration among populations are considered. The chapter then focuses on metapopulation models, emphasising the importance of understanding drivers affecting migration and differential extinction among populations. Finally, it concludes with a discussion of some important and general problems associated with assessing how population dynamics may be affected by environmental drivers that are dynamic, nonlinear, and with indirect and/or interacting effects with other drivers..


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aglaia Szukala ◽  
Jessica Lovegrove-Walsh ◽  
Hirzi Luqman ◽  
Simone Fior ◽  
Thomas Mahteson Wolfe ◽  
...  

Understanding how organisms adapt to the environment is a major goal of modern biology. Parallel evolution - the independent evolution of similar phenotypes in different populations - provides a powerful framework to explore this question. Here, we quantified the degree of gene expression and functional parallelism across replicated ecotype formation in Heliosperma pusillum (Caryophyllaceae) and gained insights into the architecture of adaptive traits. Population structure analyses and demographic modelling confirm the previously formulated hypothesis of parallel polytopic divergence of montane and alpine ecotypes. We detect a large proportion of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) underlying adaptation of each replicate ecotype pair, with a strikingly low amount of shared DEGs across pairs. Functional enrichment of DEGs reveals that the traits affected by divergent gene expression are the same across ecotype pairs, in strong contrast to the non-shared genetic basis. The remarkable redundancy of differential gene expression indicates that diverged adaptive traits are highly polygenic. We conclude that polygenic traits appear key to opening multiple routes for adaptation, widening the adaptive potential of organisms.


Author(s):  
Katharine Prata ◽  
Cynthia Riginos ◽  
Ryan Gutenkunst ◽  
Kelly Latijnhouwers ◽  
Juan Sánchez ◽  
...  

Vastly understudied, mesophotic coral ecosystems lie below shallow reefs (> 30 m depth) and comprise ecologically distinct communities. Brooding reproductive modes appear to predominate among mesophotic-specialist species and may limit genetic connectivity among populations. Using reduced representation genomic sequencing, we assessed spatial population genetic structure (at 50 m depth) in an ecologically important mesophotic-specialist species, Agaricia grahamae among locations in the Southern Caribbean. We also tested for hybridisation with the closely related (but depth-generalist) species Agaricia lamarcki, within their sympatric depth zone (50 m). In contrast to our predictions, no spatial genetic structure was detected between the reefs of Curaçao and Bonaire (~ 40 km apart) within A. grahamae. However, cryptic taxa were discovered within both nominal species, with those in A. lamarcki (incompletely) partitioned by depth and those in A. grahamae occurring sympatrically (at the same depth). Hybrid analyses and demographic modelling identified contemporary and historical gene flow among cryptic taxa, both within and between A. grahamae and A. lamarcki. These results (1) indicate that spatial genetic connectivity in these ecologically important mesophotic species may be maintained over large geographic distances and (2) highlight that gene flow links taxa within this relativity diverse Caribbean genus.


Author(s):  
Emily Koot ◽  
Elise Arnst ◽  
Melissa Taane ◽  
Kelsey Goldsmith ◽  
Eleanor Dormontt ◽  
...  

Leptospermum scoparium J. R. Forst et G. Forst, known as mānuka by Māori, the indigenous people of Aotearoa (New Zealand), is a culturally and economically significant shrub species, native to New Zealand and Australia. Chemical, morphological and phylogenetic studies have indicated geographical variation of mānuka across its range in New Zealand, and genetic differentiation between New Zealand and Australia. We used pooled whole genome re-sequencing of 76 L. scoparium and outgroup populations from New Zealand and Australia to compile a dataset totalling ~2.5 million SNPs. We explored the genetic structure and relatedness of L. scoparium across New Zealand, and between populations in New Zealand and Australia, as well as the complex demographic history of this species. Our population genomic investigation suggests there are five geographically distinct mānuka gene pools within New Zealand, with evidence of gene flow occurring between these pools. Demographic modelling suggests three of these gene pools have undergone expansion events, whilst the evolutionary histories of the remaining two have been subjected to contractions. Furthermore, mānuka populations in New Zealand are genetically distinct from populations in Australia, with coalescent modelling suggesting these two clades diverged ~9 –12 million years ago. We discuss the evolutionary history of this species and the benefits of using pool-seq for such studies. Our research will support the management and conservation of mānuka by landowners, particularly Māori, and the development of a provenance story for the branding of mānuka based products.


Author(s):  
Emily Koot ◽  
Elise Arnst ◽  
Melissa Taane ◽  
Kelsey Goldsmith ◽  
Peri Tobias ◽  
...  

Leptospermum scoparium J. R. Forst et G. Forst, known as mānuka by Māori, the indigenous people of Aotearoa (New Zealand), is a culturally and economically significant shrub species, native to New Zealand and Australia. Chemical, morphological and phylogenetic studies have indicated geographical variation of mānuka across its range in New Zealand, and genetic differentiation between New Zealand and Australia. We used pooled whole genome re-sequencing of 76 L. scoparium and outgroup populations from New Zealand and Australia to compile a dataset totalling ~2.5 million SNPs. We explored the genetic structure and relatedness of L. scoparium across New Zealand, and between populations in New Zealand and Australia, as well as the complex demographic history of this species. Our population genomic investigation suggests there are five geographically distinct mānuka gene pools within New Zealand, with evidence of gene flow occurring between these pools. Demographic modelling suggests three of these gene pools have undergone expansion events, whilst the evolutionary histories of the remaining two have been subjected to contractions. Furthermore, mānuka populations in New Zealand are genetically distinct from populations in Australia, with coalescent modelling suggesting these two clades diverged ~9 –12 million years ago. We discuss the evolutionary history of this species and the benefits of using pool-seq for such studies. Our research will support the management and conservation of mānuka by landowners, particularly Māori, and the development of a provenance story for the branding of mānuka based products.


Forecasting ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 207-227
Author(s):  
Ka Kin Lam ◽  
Bo Wang

A rapid decline in mortality and fertility has become major issues in many developed countries over the past few decades. An accurate model for forecasting demographic movements is important for decision making in social welfare policies and resource budgeting among the government and many industry sectors. This article introduces a novel non-parametric approach using Gaussian process regression with a natural cubic spline mean function and a spectral mixture covariance function for mortality and fertility modelling and forecasting. Unlike most of the existing approaches in demographic modelling literature, which rely on time parameters to determine the movements of the whole mortality or fertility curve shifting from one year to another over time, we consider the mortality and fertility curves from their components of all age-specific mortality and fertility rates and assume each of them following a Gaussian process over time to fit the whole curves in a discrete but intensive style. The proposed Gaussian process regression approach shows significant improvements in terms of forecast accuracy and robustness compared to other mainstream demographic modelling approaches in the short-, mid- and long-term forecasting using the mortality and fertility data of several developed countries in the numerical examples.


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