scholarly journals The Logic of Inference and Decision for Scientific Evidence

2021 ◽  
pp. 251-266
Author(s):  
Franco Taroni ◽  
Silvia Bozza ◽  
Alex Biedermann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Daily Activities ◽  
Decision Making Under Uncertainty ◽  
Forensic Evidence ◽  
Probative Value ◽  
Preference Structures ◽  
Forensic Scientists

Uncertainty is an inevitable complication encountered by members of the judiciary who face inference and decision-making as core aspects of their daily activities. Inference, in this context, is mainly inductive and relates to the use of incomplete information, to reason about propositions of interest. Applied to scientific evidence, this means, for example, to reason about whether or not a person of interest is the source of a recovered evidential material and factfinders are required to make decisions about ultimate issues, for example, regarding a defendant’s guilt. The role of forensic scientists, whose duty is to help assess the probative value of scientific findings, is to offer to mandate authorities’ conclusions that are scientifically sound and logically defensible. This chapter lays out the fundamentals of inference and decision-making under uncertainty with regard to forensic evidence. The authors explicate explain the subjectivist version of Bayesianism and analyze the usefulness of the likelihood ratio in for measuring the degree to which the evidence discriminates between competing propositions in a trial. They also underscore emphasize the importance of decision analysis as a framework that forces helps decision-makers to formalize preference structures.

The role of agency in project initiation decisions

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 518-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Mullaly
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Organizational Dynamics ◽  
Substantive Theory ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Board Level

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of decision rules and agency in supporting project initiation decisions, and the influences of agency on decision-making effectiveness. Design/methodology/approach – The study this paper is based upon used grounded theory methodology, and sought to understand the influences of individual decision makers on project initiation decisions within organizations. Data collection involved 28 participants who were involved in project initiation decisions within their organizations, who discussed the process of project initiation in their organization and their role within that process. Findings – The study demonstrates that the overall effectiveness of project initiation decisions is a product of agency, process effectiveness or rule effectiveness. The employment of agency can have a direct influence on decision-making effectiveness, it can compensate for organizational inadequacies of a process or political nature, and it can be constrained in the evidence of formal and effective organizational practices. Research limitations/implications – While agency was recognized by all participants, there are clearly circumstances where actors perceive the ability to exercise agency to be externally constrained. The study is exploratory, contributing to the development of substantive theory. Theory testing as well as a more in-depth investigation of the underlying drivers of agency would be valuable. Practical implications – The study provides executives and individuals supporting the initiation of projects with insights on how to effectively influence the effectiveness of project initiation decisions, and the degree to which personal characteristics influence organizational dynamics. Originality/value – Most discussions of agency has been framed the subject as an executive- or board-level phenomenon. The current study demonstrates that agency is in fact being perceived and operationalized at all levels. Those demonstrating agency in the majority of instances in this study do so in exercising stewardship behaviours. This has important implications for how agency is perceived by executives, and by how agency is exercised by actors at all levels of the organization.

scholarly journals Novel Parameterized Distance Measures on Hesitant Fuzzy Sets with Credibility Degree and Their Application in Decision-Making

Symmetry ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 557 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiaru Li ◽  
Fangwei Zhang ◽  
Qiang Li ◽  
Jing Sun ◽  
Janney Yee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Cardinal Number ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Distance Measures ◽  
Hesitant Fuzzy Set ◽  
Hesitant Fuzzy Sets ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Relationship

The subject of this study is to explore the role of cardinality of hesitant fuzzy element (HFE) in distance measures on hesitant fuzzy sets (HFSs). Firstly, three parameters, i.e., credibility factor, conservative factor, and a risk factor are introduced, thereafter, a series of novel distance measures on HFSs are proposed using these three parameters. These newly proposed distance measures handle the relationship between the cardinal number and the element values of hesitant fuzzy set well, and are suitable to combine subjective and objective decision-making information. When using these functions, decision makers with different risk preferences are allowed to give different values for these three parameters. In particular, this study transfers the hesitance degree index to a credibility of the values in HFEs, which is consistent with people’s intuition. Finally, the practicability of the newly proposed distance measures is verified by two examples.

Augmenting Medical Diagnosis Decisions? An Investigation into Physicians’ Decision-Making Process with Artificial Intelligence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Jussupow ◽  
Kai Spohrer ◽  
Armin Heinzl ◽  
Joshua Gawlitza
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Medical Errors ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Medical Decision ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Self Monitoring ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
Human Actors

Systems based on artificial intelligence (AI) increasingly support physicians in diagnostic decisions, but they are not without errors and biases. Failure to detect those may result in wrong diagnoses and medical errors. Compared with rule-based systems, however, these systems are less transparent and their errors less predictable. Thus, it is difficult, yet critical, for physicians to carefully evaluate AI advice. This study uncovers the cognitive challenges that medical decision makers face when they receive potentially incorrect advice from AI-based diagnosis systems and must decide whether to follow or reject it. In experiments with 68 novice and 12 experienced physicians, novice physicians with and without clinical experience as well as experienced radiologists made more inaccurate diagnosis decisions when provided with incorrect AI advice than without advice at all. We elicit five decision-making patterns and show that wrong diagnostic decisions often result from shortcomings in utilizing metacognitions related to decision makers’ own reasoning (self-monitoring) and metacognitions related to the AI-based system (system monitoring). As a result, physicians fall for decisions based on beliefs rather than actual data or engage in unsuitably superficial evaluation of the AI advice. Our study has implications for the training of physicians and spotlights the crucial role of human actors in compensating for AI errors.

What Is It Like to Be a Citizen?

In Our Name ◽  
2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Beerbohm
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Ethics Of Belief ◽  
Moral Obligations

This chapter defends a theory of citizenship that recognizes our need to make online decisions under electoral pressures, given our foibles as decision makers. Drawing upon the extensive literature on decision and judgment, it examines how fragile citizens are when it comes to decision making. The usual heuristics offered by political scientists suggest that citizens rely on informational shortcuts that are morally irresponsible. If we reconceive the role of the voter in explicitly moral terms, this approach is unsatisfactory in addressing the cognitive biases and defects of citizens. The chapter also considers the notion of cognitive partisanship and argues that it is unavoidable for decision makers to rely on heuristics when they reason about complex decisions. It concludes by emphasizing the task for a democratic ethics of belief: to provide citizens with heuristics that reduce the cognitive burden while respecting the moral obligations to attach to coercive, term-shaping decision making.

Specialization vs. Diversification Decision Making

2014 ◽  
pp. 16-44
Author(s):  
Dimitris Folinas ◽  
Mohammed Althrawa
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Risk Avoidance ◽  
Industry Type ◽  
Industrial Cities ◽  
Export Policies ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
Returns On Investment

This chapter has two main aims: first, to explore the role of various economical, financial, and strategic forces influencing firms towards diversification and specialization decision making within the Saudi Arabian manufacturing industry, and second to assess the challenges for both types of companies at the time of decision making and afterwards. Surveying 100 decision makers in the industrial cities of Riyadh using questionnaires developed for both groups, the chapter initially attempts to identify the factors that had the greatest impact on firm performance based on firm returns on investment. Several factors were found significant; first, attempts of specialization were found associated with risk avoidance and managers craving to achieve industry dominant economic features, whilst results show an increased concern among diversified firm decision makers towards changes in import and export policies and regulations. Moreover, industry type was found effective in managerial responses as they weigh the role of the factors presented to the direction of the expansion made.

Confabulated Explanations

2020 ◽  
pp. 42-69
Author(s):  
Lisa Bortolotti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Peer Feedback ◽  
Emotional Reactions ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Priming Effects ◽  
Self Reflection ◽  
Implicit Biases ◽  
Share Information ◽  
Epistemic Innocence

In this chapter, the author argues that the ill-grounded explanations agents sincerely offer for their choices have the potential for epistemic innocence. Such explanations are not based on evidence about the causes of the agents’ behaviour and typically turn out to be inaccurate. That is because agents tend to underestimate the role of priming effects, implicit biases, and basic emotional reactions in their decision making. However, offering explanations for their choices, even when the explanations are ill-grounded, enables them to share information about their choices with peers, facilitating peer feedback and self-reflection. Moreover, by providing plausible explanations for their behaviour—rather than acknowledging the influence of factors that cannot be easily controlled—agents preserve a sense of themselves as competent and largely coherent decision makers, which can improve their decision making.

4. Public Law

2019 ◽  
pp. 94-127
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Fisher ◽  
Bettina Lange ◽  
Eloise Scotford
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Constitutional Law ◽  
Environmental Law ◽  
Administrative Law ◽  
Public Law ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Aarhus Convention ◽  
Constituent Elements ◽  
Public Decision

This chapter explains the important role that public law, particularly administrative law, plays in environmental law. This role comes about because much of environmental law requires vesting decision-making and regulatory power in the hands of public decision-makers at all levels of government. This chapter begins by providing an overview of the different constituent elements of public law: constitutional law, administrative law, the role of the EU and international law, as well the complexities of this area of law. The chapter then moves on to consider the way in which the different types of interests involved in environmental problems and the need for information and expertise provide challenges for public law. The chapter then provides an overview of four major features of public law that are particularly relevant to environmental lawyers: the Aarhus Convention, accountability mechanisms, judicial review, and human rights.

scholarly journals Toward Better Design-Related Decision Making: A Proposal of an Advanced OODA Loop

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 2387-2396
Author(s):  
Mattia Vettorello ◽  
Boris Eisenbart ◽  
Charlie Ranscombe
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Divergent Thinking ◽  
Abductive Reasoning ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Strategic Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Under Uncertainty ◽  
Alternative Strategies ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Lateral Thinking

AbstractTo be successful in innovation, organisations need to be dynamically adaptable to novel situations to avoid getting ‘left behind’. Yet, they face vast uncertainties stemming from unforeseeable technological shifts or future user and market behaviour, making strategic decision-making on innovation an extremely difficult task. Decision-makers thus increasingly try to control or shape the future, rather than foresee it. This includes thinking ahead and generating potential pathways that will make an innovation viable. This captures the essence of designerly ways of thinking in reasoning toward ‘what might be’. Extant literature has been reviewed that discusses alternative strategies how this future-oriented thinking can be applied to become better at selecting novel ideas for development. We observe parallels between divergent thinking, abductive reasoning, analogising and lateral thinking suggested by different authors in this process. The paper continues to propose how these key mechanisms can be embedded within an existing framework for decision-making under uncertainty, the ‘OODA Loop’, which has seen increasing uptake in such decision-making scenarios.

Salmon fishing in the severn: Judicial deference to regulatory judgments based on scientific assessments

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 201-209
Author(s):  
Patrick Bishop
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Law ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Wide Margin ◽  
Probative Value ◽  
Regulatory Decision ◽  
Margin Of Appreciation ◽  
Environment Agency ◽  
Court Of Appeal

To claim that environmental law is heavily influenced by science is to make a rather trite assertion. Disputes about the probative value of scientific and technical evidence when used as the basis for a regulatory decision are therefore not uncommon. R. (on the application of Mott) v Environment Agency is an example of this phenomenon. In particular, the key issue was whether the Environment Agency had acted perversely (in judicial review terms) by relying on contested scientific evidence as the justification for imposing catch limitations designed to preserve salmon stocks in the river Wye. In finding for the Agency, the Court of Appeal restated and reaffirmed the established principle that decision makers ought to be afforded a wide margin of appreciation in such cases; a principle which reinforces the view that the courts are not an appropriate forum for the resolution of scientific and technical disputes. In commenting on this decision it is contended that the position of the courts in this regard has the potential to undermine the rationale of evidence-based decision making. However, it is impractical in most instances for a regulator to wait for a scientific consensus to emerge, particularly when acting to protect a threatened species. As a compromise solution, it is suggested that prior consultation at least has the potential to allow affected parties to scrutinise the available science, and offer alternative evidence prior to the final decision.

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