Prediction Of Fundamental Factors On Quotation Prices

The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of fundamental factors on stock prices and to examine differences in the effects of fundamental factors on stock prices during the period of changes in mineral export policies. Fundamental factors are proxied by earning per share (EPS), net profit margin (NPM), return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), and debt to equity ratio (DER). The research object is all companies in the mining sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the period 2014 – 2019, with a total population of 269 observations. The sampling technique was purposive sampling, with the results of 176 observations. The observation data came from 37 companies. Methods of data analysis using multiple regression and paired t-test. The results showed that only the EPS variable did not affect stock prices. Then, the study results also show that there is no difference in the influence of fundamental factors on stock prices during the export ban period and the reopening of the raw mineral export ban. This condition illustrates that investors still have confidence in the fundamental factors reported by companies in the mining sector.

The Role of Exports in African Economic Development: A Comparative Study of Mauritius and Tunisia

<p>Mauritius and Tunisia stand out as two remarkable exceptions to the African economic growth experience. Since their respective independences in 1968 and 1956, both have achieved average real GDP per capita growth well in excess of three percent per year. Export policies featured highly in the developmental strategies of both countries as they transitioned through a dependency on agriculture into manufacturing and then services. What makes this comparison so interesting is that despite such similar success, Tunisia and Mauritius are fundamentally very different. This study comprises the first ever in-depth comparison of these two countries, presenting a qualitative analysis and then augmenting it with a comprehensive set of econometric tests. The focus is on the relationship between exports and economic growth, but the discussion explores the wider context in both countries. Using the Granger-causality approach, we find strong evidence for export-led growth in Mauritius, but no significant evidence of any causal relationship in Tunisia. On the basis of a broader analysis we argue that exports were still important in both countries, but appear to have been more central to the growth process in Mauritius. This broader analysis also highlights that other factors – such as a strong institutional environment – were important in facilitating or directly contributing to such consistent growth.</p>

The Role of Exports in African Economic Development: A Comparative Study of Mauritius and Tunisia

<p>Mauritius and Tunisia stand out as two remarkable exceptions to the African economic growth experience. Since their respective independences in 1968 and 1956, both have achieved average real GDP per capita growth well in excess of three percent per year. Export policies featured highly in the developmental strategies of both countries as they transitioned through a dependency on agriculture into manufacturing and then services. What makes this comparison so interesting is that despite such similar success, Tunisia and Mauritius are fundamentally very different. This study comprises the first ever in-depth comparison of these two countries, presenting a qualitative analysis and then augmenting it with a comprehensive set of econometric tests. The focus is on the relationship between exports and economic growth, but the discussion explores the wider context in both countries. Using the Granger-causality approach, we find strong evidence for export-led growth in Mauritius, but no significant evidence of any causal relationship in Tunisia. On the basis of a broader analysis we argue that exports were still important in both countries, but appear to have been more central to the growth process in Mauritius. This broader analysis also highlights that other factors – such as a strong institutional environment – were important in facilitating or directly contributing to such consistent growth.</p>

An empirical analysis of African trade blocs effects on the global economy: new evidence from the gravity model

This study employs the gravity model to estimate the extent of the contribution of six African trade blocs to the global economy using the gravity model spanning from 1980 to 2018. The gravity equation that models the export contributions of the six selected African RECs to the global export is estimated. The estimated gravity model reveals that the long run estimations show that the coefficient estimate for SACU and ECCAS are insignificant in the long run while SACU, EAC and ECCAS as RECs, have insignificant contribution to export in the short run. Our findings, after establishing cointegration, on the other hand show that COMESA has the highest contribution to the global exports, followed by EAC, ECOWAS and SADC with ECCAS and SACU the lowest contributors. The highest contribution of COMESA followed by EAC may be due to the growing economy of member countries like Kenya and Rwanda, while that of COMESA and SADC may be as a result of the large economy of Nigeria and South Africa respectively. This study concludes that African countries are emerging with great export potentials, therefore, governments and private sectors should create the necessary incentives and export policies for the realization of these potentials to maximise the global value chain.

Weapons from the South: Democratization, Civil Society, and Brazil's Arms Exports

What explains the existence of humanitarian concerns in decisions involving arms transfers? This paper examines the potential influence of democratization and civil society activities on arms transfer policies and practice through a case study on Brazil. Brazil's re-democratization in 1985 provides an opportunity to test whether a change of regime type influences arms export behavior and whether civil society groups can influence it in newly democratized countries. Based on evidence collected mainly through archival research at Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and semi-structured interviews, this paper argues that transitioning to democracy had an immediate effect on arms transfer policies and practice in Brazil. After the end of Brazil's military regime, arms export policies and practice changed due mainly to reputational concerns: a stricter arms control could provide reputational gains to Brazil in an international norm environment where liberal values were perceived to be cascading. In addition to this immediate effect, democratic institutions created better conditions for the emergence of civil society groups campaigning for a stricter arms control, which emerged in the late 1990s. The paper studies a campaign and network led by the civil society group Viva Rio, which led to the introduction of a stricter policy on arms sales to most Latin American and Caribbean countries. These findings imply that democratization has both short- and long-term effects on arms transfers and that democratic institutions can influence state behavior regarding arms transfers even in countries with little tradition of civil society groups working with arms control.

Evaluation of export diversification on sustainable growth in Kazakhstan

Over the last ten years developing countries have achieved very fast economic growth comparing to the former developed countries and gained the opportunity to vastly widen their export basket. Kazakhstan over the past years is trying to diversify its export as well by becoming a member of international organizations and supporting its exporters by implementing different programs on a state level. Thus, the need for the deep research of Kazakhstan's export opportunity has appeared. The main purpose of the article is to determine the effect of export's diversification on sustainable economic growth and evaluate the potential of the processing field on the example of regions of Kazakhstan. The research has given important results, that is, in 4 regions of Kazakhstan are great opportunities to increase the export of metallurgy, engineering and chemical industry. The results of the study will be useful tool in applying export policies of the regions.

Improving Agricultural Export Policies in Developing Countries: An Application of Gravity Modelling in the Case of Vietnam’s Fishery Export

This paper investigates the determinants of fishery export from Vietnam using a structural gravity modelling. Taken additional trade-related variables from the World Bank’s open data into the estimation of the gravity model, this research will be the first trial to examine the impacts of these variables on export of fishery products and to propose policy implications for stimulating export in Vietnam. The empirical results show that each 1% reduction of export costs might increase approximately 3.7% of the export value of fishery products. This finding is critical because the current administrative system for export of agricultural commodity in Vietnam consists of many stages and includes a long period of animal quarantine inspection, document checking, and customs clearance that might cause additional export costs. Therefore, policies aiming at reducing the costs of border and documentary compliance for export will be significant to stimulate export in developing countries as Vietnam.

A Taste of the Sea: Artisanal Fishing Communities in the Philippines

The Philippines remains one of the top suppliers of seafarers to the global merchant fleet. In the 2015 BIMCO Manpower Report on seafarer supply countries, the Philippines ranked first for ratings and second for officers with 363,832 Filipino seafarers deployed to ocean-going merchant vessels in 2014 and accounting for 28% of the global supply of seafarers (MARINA 2015). Seafarers are crucial in keeping the Philippine economy afloat and in 2018, Filipino seafarers sent home USD 6.14 billion (Hellenic Shipping News 2019), accounting for about a fifth of the USD 32.2 billion overseas workers sent home that year (Inquirer 2019). The Philippines has developed as a major player in the crewing sector of the global maritime industry primarily because of its maritime history (Giraldez 2015; Mercene 2007; Schurz 1939), its maritime geography and the continued centrality of the sea to many people’s lives (as attested to by the presence of the myriad fishing communities dotted around the many islands of the country) (Warren 2003, 2007), the economic liberalisation of the 1970s and the concomitant institutionalisation of the labour export policies as enacted by Philippine governments since the presidency of Ferdinand Marcos whose latter policy saw many Filipinos seeking employment overseas (Asis 2017; Kaur 2016; Wozniak 2015).

Foreign Population: Guidelines for Studying Migration in Thailand

This article aims to explain the migration factors of the foreign population in Thailand. The migration concepts and the approach of studying the foreign population in the present Thai society found that the migration factors consisted of the need for economic security, life, good quality of life for oneself and one's own family, marriage with a foreign spouse, leisure travel, safety in life and property, seeking business opportunities, access to property and property owners, changing lifestyle, and extending savings for investment funds. As for the guidelines for studying the foreign population, there are three frameworks to consider, which include: (1) the origin, (2) the way to the destination, and (3) the destination. The origin is the study of migration decisions, factors, and objectives. The way to the destination considers the travel process, facilitating travel according to the legal system of the origin country, and labor export policies. Finally, the destination is the study of personal and official networks, relational and contact mechanisms of the community, and lifestyle of the people in the community, including the local impact of the destination country.