Economic growth and drivers of stock returns
This chapter studies how yields, growth, and valuation changes, introduced in the previous chapter, relate to economic activity in the long run.The chapter discusses reasons why there could be a relation between drivers of stock returns and economic growth in the first place. It also presents the empirical evidence. Aggregate earnings has historicallylined up with growth in total economic activity.Also, GNP per capitahas grown alongside stock prices, dividends per share, and earnings per share. Since the 1980s, though, share prices have risen relative to earnings and dividends, partly because firms have used earnings to buy back shares. Similarly, the aggregate value of the stock market has outpaced aggregate GDP during recent decades. The chapter discusses potential explanations.