The Aim of this paper is to develop the methods of analysis and simulation of the processes of occurrence and development of emergencies at complex railway infrastructure facilities. It cites analysis data on the threats, causes and consequences of sudden emergencies at complex railway infrastructure facilities. For the purpose of ensuring reliable operation of technical objects, as well as timely identification of faults, it is proposed to use the indicator-based approach that allows diagnosing and formally analyzing the processes of occurrence and propagation of malfunctions across the elements of complex technical systems. For the purpose of simulating the processes of propagation of the disturbances (hazards of emergencies) that occur as the result of malfunctions, it is proposed to use the theoretic graph approach that involves model and visual representation of the structure of a technical system under consideration in the form of a directed graph that shows the correlations between its elements. Each node and edge of a graph is assigned certain parameters or functionals that reflect the processes of correlated operation of the elements of the simulated system. The propagation of disturbances within a system is simulated with pulse processes initiated in one or several nodes. The paper refers to the developed formalized models of disturbance propagation in a technical system based on the construction of structural components and correlation matrices. The authors introduce the concept of critical element of a technical system that helps identify the event of its failure. Two basic criteria of technical system failure, i.e. the exclusive (a system is considered to have failed if the disturbance has reached any of the critical elements) and absolute criterion (failure occurs if the disturbance has reached the specified subset of critical elements) are defined. The paper provides an analytical example that illustrates the capabilities of the proposed model of disturbance propagation within the structure of a technical system. For the purpose more efficient diagnostics of the hazard of emergencies in railway infrastructure facilities the paper proposes a model of application of structurally integrated indicators that consists in the integration of indicators within the structure of a technical system that would immediately deliver the required and sufficient information in case of emergency. The main task would be to identify a set of indicators with the primary purpose of reducing the information-related stress and concentration of dispatchers’ or operators’ attention on the processes within a technical system that are most relevant in terms of accident-free and safe operation. Basic criteria are identified for the generation of the set of indicators within a complex technical system: maximum of reliability of the disturbance consequences estimate, maximum of accuracy of emergency causes identification, minimum of emergency identification time, minimum of nonrecurrent and current costs. A modified graph model of disturbance propagation in a complex technical system is provided that is the prerequisite for solving the multicriterion problems of optimal location of indicators within the structure of a technical system in terms of completeness, accuracy and timeliness of detection of failures of various types. Automation of the processes of generation of indicator sets using models of disturbance propagation in technical systems will allow using the proposed methods as part of further development of the URRAN methodology in terms of improvement of the decision support in railway infrastructure facilities management.
Bottlenecks, Modules, and Dynamic Architectural Capabilities
