Reconciling Individual and Aggregate Evidence Concerning Partisan Stability: Applying Time-Series Models to Panel Survey Data

2002 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald P. Green ◽  
David H. Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Data Generation ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Panel Surveys ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Empirical Regularities ◽  
Integrated Time Series ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual

Party identification has been studied extensively using both individual- and aggregate-level data. This paper attempts to formulate a statistical model that can account for the range of empirical generalizations that have emerged from aggregate time series and panel surveys. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we show that only certain types of data generation processes can account for these empirical regularities. Deciding which of the remaining types best explains the data means investigating the ways in which individual-level partisanship behaves over time. Partisanship at the aggregate-level tends to be highly autocorrelated, reequilibrating slowly in the wake of each perturbation. Working downward from the analysis of aggregate data, previous researchers argued that aggregate partisanship is fractionally integrated and contended that dynamics at the individual level are therefore heterogeneous. Using data from three panel surveys, we present the first direct assessment of individual-level dynamics. We also investigate the hypothesis that these dynamics vary among individuals, a claim that motivates much recent work on fractionally integrated time series. The model that best explains the observed characteristics of party identification is one in which individuals respond in similar ways to external shocks, reequilibrate rapidly thereafter, and seldom change their equilibrium level of partisan attachment.

The Dynamics of Aggregate Partisanship

1996 ◽  
Vol 90 (3) ◽  
pp. 567-580 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier ◽  
Renée M. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Temporal Pattern ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Endogenous Preferences ◽  
Ideal Types ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
General Time

Despite extensive research on party identification, links between partisanship at the individual and aggregate level have largely been ignored. This leaves a gap in our understanding of the dynamics of aggregate partisanship. To remedy this, we identify a set of ideal types that capture the essential arguments made about individual-level party identification. We then combine the behavioral assumptions for each type with existing results on statistical aggregation to deduce the specific temporal pattern that each type implies for aggregate levels of partisanship. Using new diagnostic tests and a highly general time series model, we find that aggregate measures of partisanship from 1953 through 1992 are fractionally integrated. Our evidence that the effects of a shock to aggregate partisanship last for years—not months or decades—challenges previous work by party systems theorists and students of “macropartisanship.” Our arguments and empirical evidence provide a conceptually richer and more precise basis for theories of issue evolution or endogenous preferences—in which partisanship plays a central role.

scholarly journals On “Nationology”: The Gravitational Field of National Culture

2021 ◽  
pp. 002202212110447
Author(s):  
Plamen Akaliyski ◽  
Christian Welzel ◽  
Michael Harris Bond ◽  
Michael Minkov
Keyword(s):  
Gravitational Field ◽  
Cultural Values ◽  
National Culture ◽  
Random Noise ◽  
Religious Groups ◽  
Individual Values ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Collective Phenomenon ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual

Nations have been questioned as meaningful units for analyzing culture due to their allegedly limited variance-capturing power and large internal heterogeneity. Against this skepticism, we argue that culture is by definition a collective phenomenon and focusing on individual differences contradicts the very concept of culture. Through the “miracle of aggregation,” we can eliminate random noise and arbitrary variation at the individual level in order to distill the central cultural tendencies of nations. Accordingly, we depict national culture as a gravitational field that socializes individuals into the orbit of a nation’s central cultural tendency. Even though individuals are also exposed to other gravitational forces, subcultures in turn gravitate within the limited orbit of their national culture. Using data from the World Values Survey, we show that individual values cluster in concentric circles around their nation’s cultural gravity center. We reveal the miracle of aggregation by demonstrating that nations capture the bulk of the variation in the individuals’ cultural values once they are aggregated into lower-level territorial units such as towns and sub-national regions. We visualize the gravitational force of national cultures by plotting various intra-national groups from five large countries that form distinct national clusters. Contrary to many scholars’ intuitions, alternative social aggregates, such as ethnic, linguistic, and religious groups, as well as diverse socio-demographic categories, add negligible explained variance to that already captured by nations.

scholarly journals Frankly, We Do Give a Damn

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 816-826 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilad Feldman ◽  
Huiwen Lian ◽  
Michal Kosinski ◽  
David Stillwell
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Linguistic Analysis ◽  
The Other ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Common Causes ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Relationship

There are two conflicting perspectives regarding the relationship between profanity and dishonesty. These two forms of norm-violating behavior share common causes and are often considered to be positively related. On the other hand, however, profanity is often used to express one’s genuine feelings and could therefore be negatively related to dishonesty. In three studies, we explored the relationship between profanity and honesty. We examined profanity and honesty first with profanity behavior and lying on a scale in the lab (Study 1; N = 276), then with a linguistic analysis of real-life social interactions on Facebook (Study 2; N = 73,789), and finally with profanity and integrity indexes for the aggregate level of U.S. states (Study 3; N = 50 states). We found a consistent positive relationship between profanity and honesty; profanity was associated with less lying and deception at the individual level and with higher integrity at the society level.

Levels of Aggregation in Conjoint Analysis: An Empirical Comparison

1980 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 516-523 ◽  
Author(s):  
William L. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Conjoint Analysis ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Segmentation Method ◽  
Empirical Comparison ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Aggregate Analysis ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Level Analysis

Two segmented methods of performing conjoint anal/sis, clustered and componential segmentation, are compared with each other as well as with individual level and totally aggregate level analyses. The two segmented methods provide insights to the data that (1) are not obtainable at the aggregate level and (2) are in a form that is more easily communicated than the information from the individual level analysis. The predictive power of the clustered segmentation method is higher than that of componential segmentation, and both are superior to the aggregate analysis but inferior to individual level analysis.

Disentangling Differences in Homicide Incarceration Rates by Immigration Status: A Comparison in Texas

2020 ◽  
pp. 001112872094096
Author(s):  
Erin A. Orrick ◽  
Alexander H. Updegrove ◽  
Alex R. Piquero ◽  
Tomislav Kovandzic
Keyword(s):  
Undocumented Immigrants ◽  
Immigrant Status ◽  
Immigration Status ◽  
Incarceration Rate ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Crime And Punishment ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Immigration And Crime

Research addressing the purported relationship between immigration and crime remains popular, but some gaps remain under-explored. One important gap involves disentangling differences in crime and punishment by immigrant status, as measured across different definitions of immigration status and in relation to U.S. natives, at the individual level. Using data from Texas, results show that native-born U.S. citizens are incarcerated for homicide at higher rates than almost all immigrant groups. While the incarceration rate for undocumented immigrants was 24% greater than the rate for all foreign-citizens, this rate was significantly less than that for U.S. citizens. Among the immigrant status classifications available in this study, all were associated with lower incarceration rates for homicide than that of U.S. citizens.

Individual Components of Three Inequality Measures for Analyzing Shapes of Inequality

2019 ◽  
pp. 004912411987596
Author(s):  
Tim Futing Liao
Keyword(s):  
Sociological Research ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Current Population Survey Data ◽  
Single Measure ◽  
Generalized Entropy ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Inequality Measures ◽  
Entropy Measures ◽  
Individual Contributions ◽  
The Individual

In common sociological research, income inequality is measured only at the aggregate level. The main purpose of this article is to demonstrate that there is more than meets the eye when inequality is indicated by a single measure. In this article, I introduce an alternative method that evaluates individuals’ contributions to inequality as well as the between-group and within-group components of these individual contributions. I first highlight three common inequality measures, the Gini index and two generalized entropy measures—Theil’s T and Theil’s L indices—by presenting their individual components as a method for evaluating inequality. Five artificial data examples illustrate the use of these individual components first. An empirical analysis of the 2007 and 2017 Current Population Survey data then focuses on the differences in inequality revealed by such individual inequality components between the 2007 and 2017. The individual-level inequality measures can reveal patterns of inequality concealed by single measures at the aggregate level. In particular, the Gini individual measures differentiate cases better than the generalized entropy measures and tend to have smaller standard errors in a regression analysis.

scholarly journals Unravelling ecological analysis

2006 ◽  
Vol 2006 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. G. Steel ◽  
M. Tranmer ◽  
D. Holt
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Aggregate Data ◽  
Auxiliary Variables ◽  
Ecological Analysis ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Ecological Regression ◽  
Australian Census ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual

Ecological analysis involves analysing aggregate data for groups of individuals to make inferences about relationships at the individual level. Often the results of such analyses give badly biased estimates. This paper will consider the sources of bias in linear regression analysis using aggregate data. The role of variation of the individual level relationships between groups and the consequent within-group correlations and how these are related to auxiliary variables that characterise the differences between groups is considered. A method of adjusting ecological regression for the effects of auxiliary variables is described and evaluated using data from the 1991 Australian Census.

The Average Response Method of Scaling

1990 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert E. Beaton ◽  
Eugene G. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Predictive Distribution ◽  
Average Response ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Multiple Imputations ◽  
Plausible Values ◽  
Scale Scores ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Response Method

The average response method (ARM) of scaling nonbinary data was developed to scale the data from the assessments of writing conducted by the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP). The ARM applies linear models and multiple imputations technologies to characterize the predictive distribution of the person-level average of ratings over a pool of exercises when each person has responded to only a few of the exercises. The derivations of “plausible values” from the individual-level distributions of potential scale scores are given. Conditions are provided for the unbiasedness of estimates based on the plausible values, and the potential magnitude of the bias when the conditions are not met is indicated. Also discussed is how the plausible values allow for an accounting of the uncertainties due to the sampling of individuals and to the incomplete information on each sampled individual. The technique is illustrated using data from the assessment of writing.

Redistribution under the Social Security benefit formula at the individual and household levels, 1992 and 2004

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
ALAN L. GUSTMAN ◽  
THOMAS L. STEINMEIER ◽  
NAHID TABATABAI
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
Social Security Benefit ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Social ◽  
High Earning ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Over Time

AbstractStudies using data from the early 1990s suggested that while the progressive Social Security benefit formula succeeded in redistributing benefits from individuals with high earnings to individuals with low earnings, it was much less successful in redistributing benefits from households with high earnings to households with low earnings. Wives often earned much less than their husbands. As a result, much of the redistribution at the individual level was effectively from high earning husbands to their own lower earning wives. In addition, spouse and survivor benefits accrue disproportionately to women from high income households. Both factors mitigate redistribution at the household level. It has been argued that with the increase in the labor force participation and earnings of women, Social Security now should do a better job of redistributing benefits at the household level. To be sure, when we compare outcomes for a cohort with a household member age 51 to 56 in 1992 with those from a cohort born twelve years later, redistribution at the household level has increased over time. Nevertheless, as of 2004 there still is substantially less redistribution of benefits from high to low earning households than from high to low earning individuals.

Trustees, Delegates, and Responsiveness in Comparative Perspective

2016 ◽  
Vol 50 (6) ◽  
pp. 766-793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaun Bowler
Keyword(s):  
Academic Research ◽  
Large Body ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Conceptual Distinction ◽  
Citizen Preferences ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Government Responsiveness

A large body of aggregate-level work shows that government policies do indeed respond to citizen preferences. But whether citizens recognize that government is responsive is another question entirely. Indeed, a prior question is whether or not citizens value responsiveness in the way that academic research assumes they should in the first place. Using comparative data from the European Social Survey, this article examines how citizens see government responsiveness. We show that several key assumptions of the aggregate-level literature are met at the individual level. But we also present results that show that attitudes toward representation and responsiveness are colored, sometimes in quite surprising ways, by winner–loser effects. In a finding that stands in some contrast to the normative literature on the topic, we show that these sorts of short-term attitudes help shape preferences for models of representation. In particular, we show that the distinction between delegates and trustees is a conceptual distinction that has limits in helping us to understand citizen preferences for representation.

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