Epidemiological waves - types, drivers and modulators in the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction: A discussion of 'waves' of the COVID-19 epidemic in different countries is a part of the national conversation for many, but there is no hard and fast means of delineating these waves in the available data and their connection to waves in the sense of mathematical epidemiology is only tenuous. Methods: We present an algorithm which processes a general time series to identify substantial, significant and sustained periods of increase in the value of the time series, which could reasonably be described as 'observed waves'. This provides an objective means of describing observed waves in time series. Results: The output of the algorithm as applied to epidemiological time series related to COVID-19 corresponds to visual intuition and expert opinion. Inspecting the results of individual countries shows how consecutive observed waves can differ greatly with respect to the case fatality ratio. Furthermore, in large countries, a more detailed analysis shows that consecutive observed waves have different geographical ranges. We also show how waves can be modulated by government interventions and find that early implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions correlates with a reduced number of observed waves and reduced mortality burden in those waves. Conclusion: It is possible to identify observed waves of disease by algorithmic methods and the results can be fruitfully used to analyse the progression of the epidemic.

Global stability of an age-structured population model on several temporally variable patches

We consider an age-structured density-dependent population model on several temporally variable patches. There are two key assumptions on which we base model setup and analysis. First, intraspecific competition is limited to competition between individuals of the same age (pure intra-cohort competition) and it affects density-dependent mortality. Second, dispersal between patches ensures that each patch can be reached from every other patch, directly or through several intermediary patches, within individual reproductive age. Using strong monotonicity we prove existence and uniqueness of solution and analyze its large-time behavior in cases of constant, periodically variable and irregularly variable environment. In analogy to the next generation operator, we introduce the net reproductive operator and the basic reproduction number $$R_0$$ R 0 for time-independent and periodical models and establish the permanence dichotomy: if $$R_0\le 1$$ R 0 ≤ 1 , extinction on all patches is imminent, and if $$R_0>1$$ R 0 > 1 , permanence on all patches is guaranteed. We show that a solution for the general time-dependent problem can be bounded by above and below by solutions to the associated periodic problems. Using two-side estimates, we establish uniform boundedness and uniform persistence of a solution for the general time-dependent problem and describe its asymptotic behaviour.

Analisis Sistem Informasi Akuntansi Penggajian Karyawan PT. Makesa Prima Motor Kota Baubau

The research objective is to know the employee payroll accounting information system that has been implemented by PT. Makesa Prima Motor City of Baubau. The method used is descriptive method. Data analysis starts related functions are administration and general, time recording, payroll making, accounting and finance. Documents used are supporting documents on salary changes, attendance records, attendance cards, payroll, salary slips, salary statements, proof of cash out and receipts (proof of transfer). The accounting records used are daily cash statements, general journals, ledgers, ledgers. Research shows the payroll accounting system applied is not yet fully effective because it is not fully in accordance with the theory. The payment of salaries made by the company through bank transfer. And to carry out company activities, it is necessary to have a strict separation of duties

Analisis Sistem Informasi Akuntansi Penggajian Karyawan Pada PT. Makesa Prima Motor Kota Baubau

PT. Makesa Prima Motor Kota Baubau is a private company engaged in services and trade. The research objective is to know the employee payroll accounting information system that has been implemented by PT. Makesa Prima Motor City of Baubau. The method used is descriptive method. Data analysis starts related functions are administration and general, time recording, payroll making, accounting and finance. Documents used are supporting documents on salary changes, attendance records, attendance cards, payroll, salary slips, salary statements, proof of cash out and receipts (proof of transfer). The accounting records used are daily cash statements, general journals, ledgers, ledgers. Research shows the payroll accounting system applied is not yet fully effective because it is not fully in accordance with the theory. The payment of salaries made by the company through bank transfer. And to carry out company activities, it is necessary to have a strict separation of duties

A Privacy-Masking Learning Algorithm for Online Distributed Optimization over Time-Varying Unbalanced Digraphs

This paper investigates a constrained distributed optimization problem enabled by differential privacy where the underlying network is time-changing with unbalanced digraphs. To solve such a problem, we first propose a differentially private online distributed algorithm by injecting adaptively adjustable Laplace noises. The proposed algorithm can not only protect the privacy of participants without compromising a trusted third party, but also be implemented on more general time-varying unbalanced digraphs. Under mild conditions, we then show that the proposed algorithm can achieve a sublinear expected bound of regret for general local convex objective functions. The result shows that there is a trade-off between the optimization accuracy and privacy level. Finally, numerical simulations are conducted to validate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

Suggestions to improve shortcoming in reporting and data collection procedure for studies of injuries in Kabaddi

Objectives: Kabaddi is a commonly played sport in Asia and now it is getting recognition worldwide. With the emergence of this sport, concern related to injuries associated with this sport is also increasing. For uniform reporting of injuries and illness in the epidemiological study (Kabaddi), it desired to have standard definitions on Kabaddi-related injuries. Materials and Methods: After the initial review of various studies on other sports; the definitions and terms which can be valid for Kabaddi were selected and modified according to this sport. These definitions were then reviewed by experts, who have an abundance of experiences in the treatment of injuries related to this sport. After multiple meetings among the expert panel final definitions, terms, and methodology for injury surveillance studies were laid down. Results: Only new and modified definitions were used in this paper, therefore, it is advised to use this paper in conjunction with STROBE-SIS. Injury rates were defined per 1000 raids or 1000 tackles. Various definitions like match time loss, general time loss, match injury incidence, training injury incidence, match injury prevalence, etc. were included in this paper. Conclusion: These standard definitions will help inconsistent and better data collection in injury surveillance studies. This will also help in a better understanding of injury patterns.