When life happens: the impact of life events on turnout

Habit is among the most influential explanations for why people vote. Scholars have addressed the impact of individual disruptions to habitual voting, but analyses including several life events are rare. We combine two panel surveys, conducted in the UK during 1991-2017, to examine the impact of unemployment, retirement, changes in partnership status, moving and disability on voting. We distinguish between habitual voters, occasional voters and habitual non-voters. For all voter groups, turnout declines with divorce. For other life events, the impacts diverge across the voter groups. Overall, the findings suggest that social connections are the strongest underlying mechanisms explaining the changes. Although the results support the voting habit thesis, they also suggest that previous research has overstated the persistence of voting habits. The results revise some of the canonical findings by demonstrating that the impact of life events differs across people with different voting habits and across different life events.

The Research and Development Survey (RANDS) during COVID-19

The National Center for Health Statistics’ (NCHS) Research and Development Survey (RANDS) is a series of commercial panel surveys collected for methodological research purposes. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, NCHS expanded the use of RANDS to rapidly monitor aspects of the public health emergency. The RANDS during COVID-19 survey was designed to include COVID-19 related health outcome and cognitive probe questions. Rounds 1 and 2 were fielded June 9–July 6, 2020 and August 3–20, 2020 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel. Existing and new approaches were used to: 1) evaluate question interpretation and performance to improve future COVID-19 data collections and 2) to produce a set of experimental estimates for public release using weights which were calibrated to NCHS’ National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to adjust for potential bias in the panel. Through the expansion of the RANDS platform and ongoing methodological research, NCHS reported timely information about COVID-19 in the United States and demonstrated the use of recruited panels for reporting national health statistics. This report describes the use of RANDS for reporting on the pandemic and the associated methodological survey design decisions including the adaptation of question evaluation approaches and calibration of panel weights.

Learning about the unknown Spitzenkandidaten: The role of media exposure during the 2019 European Parliament elections

The Spitzenkandidaten were meant to personalize European Parliament elections. This paper asks whether and through which channels the lead candidates were actually able to make themselves known among voters – a necessary precondition for any electoral effect. Combining panel surveys and online tracking data, the study explores candidate learning during the German 2019 European Parliament election campaign and relates learning to different types of news exposure, with a special focus on online news. The results show that learning was limited and unevenly distributed across candidates. However exposure to candidate-specific online news and most types of offline news helped to acquire knowledge. The findings imply that Spitzenkandidaten stick to voters’ minds when they get exposed to them, but that exposure is infrequent in high-choice media environments.

Gendered retirement pathways across lifecourse regimes

In order to capture the rapidly changing reality of older workers, it is important to study retirement not as a one-off transition, but rather as a series of diverse pathways that unfold during the period before and after reaching the full retirement age. The retirement transitions of men and women have been shown to vary widely according to individual characteristics such as health, education and marital status, but also according to macro-institutional factors, such as welfare regimes and gender norms. While there is a consensus about the combined influence of institutional and individual factors in shaping retirement transitions, previous research has rarely included both levels of analysis. This study aims to close this research gap. Using a pooled-country dataset from three panel surveys, covering 11 nations, we examine the retirement pathways of 1,594 women and 1,105 men during a 12-year period (2004–2016) around the country- and gender-specific full pension age. Results show that retirement pathways diverge considerably across countries and lifecourse regimes. The distribution of men and women between the different pathways is also variable, both within and across societal contexts. More importantly, the influence of individual-level characteristics, such as education, on the gendering of retirement pathways is not identical across societal contexts. These findings provide useful insights into the gender-differentiated implications of policies aimed at extending working lives.

Measuring and applying motivational constructs in a brief intervention for reducing harmful alcohol use in ED patients in Moshi, Tanzania (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Self Determination Theory (SDT) conceptualizes human motivation in terms of a spectrum. However, literature is scarce on how to measure self-determination in different languages or how self-determination can influence the effectiveness of healthcare interventions. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to translate and culturally adapt a psychometric questionnaire on self-determination (TSRQ) as well as SMS booster messages for a Brief Negotiational Intervention (BNI) aimed at reducing harmful alcohol use among injury patients presenting at Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre (KCMC) in Moshi, Tanzania. METHODS A mixed-methods approach was used to evaluate the psychometric properties of the TSRQ and SMS booster messages. Likert-scale surveys were administered to expert panels to assess translation quality and adherence to theory. RESULTS Quantitative analyses confirmed that the Swahili translation of the TSRQ accurately reflected SDT constructs. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) revealed a two-domain model had a better fit than the original three-domain TSRQ. Expert panel surveys indicated that the SMS booster messages maintained strong connections to tenets of SDT. CONCLUSIONS This was the first study to conduct a cross-cultural validation of the TSRQ in Tanzania and Tanzanian Swahili and the first to implement and assess motivational constructs in SMS booster messages for a BNI to promote safe alcohol use. The TSRQ is a valid, clinically useful scale, but could be improved with more items. SMS booster messages touch on many SDT constructs, affirming their motivational utility.

Implications of online incidental and selective exposure for political emotions: Affective polarization during elections

The Internet and social media create an environment in which individuals can selectively approach information supporting their political worldviews while also being incidentally exposed to socially shared information that challenges their beliefs. These competing information consumption patterns may help explain whether and how digital media contribute to affective polarization (i.e. affect-based division between political groups). This study examines how pro-attitudinal selective exposure and counter-attitudinal incidental exposure in tandem influence political emotions. Using data from 2, two-wave panel surveys conducted during the 2016 and 2020 US presidential elections, our findings demonstrate that seeking consonant political information is consistently associated with anger toward political opponents and enthusiasm toward like-minded partisans. In contrast, despite the purported democratic benefits endowed on political disagreement, cross-cutting incidental exposure does not temper political emotional responses associated with pro-attitudinal selective exposure. However, we find little evidence that unexpected exposure to disagreeable information backfires either.

A Study on the Development and Validation of an Intergenerational Solidarity Measuring Tool Using Mixed Methods

Intergenerational conflicts caused by rapid socioeconomic changes have highlighted the importance of strengthening intergenerational solidarity, emphasizing the necessity of tool designed to measure intergenerational solidarity. This study developed a standardized intergenerational solidarity measurement tool using mixed methods. In the qualitative research stage, 27 main survey questions were derived through literature research, in-depth interviews, and content validity verification. In the quantitative research stage, based on the results of a survey of 1,109 adults, both exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses of the questions were conducted, and the validity of the questions was confirmed. The analysis results were used to develop a 10-item measurement tool consisting of two factors: “recognition of intergenerational solidarity in the family” and “recognition of social intergenerational solidarity.” This study is the first attempt to develop a standardized measure of intergenerational solidarity, and it can be used for nationwide panel surveys in academic and policy research.

Evaluating the Utility of Linked Administrative Data for Nonresponse Bias Adjustment in a Piggyback Longitudinal Survey

Nearly all panel surveys suffer from unit nonresponse and the risk of nonresponse bias. Just as the analytic value of panel surveys increase with their length, so does cumulative attrition, which can adversely affect the representativeness of the resulting survey estimates. Auxiliary data can be useful for monitoring and adjusting for attrition bias, but traditional auxiliary sources have known limitations. We investigate the utility of linked-administrative data to adjust for attrition bias in a standard piggyback longitudinal design, where respondents from a preceding general population cross-sectional survey, which included a data linkage request, were recruited for a subsequent longitudinal survey. Using the linked-administrative data from the preceding survey, we estimate attrition biases for the first eight study waves of the longitudinal survey and investigate whether an augmented weighting scheme that incorporates the linked-administrative data reduces attrition biases. We find that adding the administrative information to the weighting scheme generally leads to a modest reduction in attrition bias compared to a standard weighting procedure and, in some cases, reduces variation in the point estimates. We conclude with a discussion of these results and remark on the practical implications of incorporating linked-administrative data in piggyback longitudinal designs.

Science-related populism declining during the COVID-19 pandemic: A panel survey of the Swiss population before and after the Coronavirus outbreak

In many countries, the COVID-19 pandemic led to increased public support for societal institutions including science, a phenomenon described as “rally-round-the-flag” dynamic. However, it is unclear if this dynamic has also reduced public resentment toward science such as science-related populist attitudes, that is, the preference of people’s common sense over allegedly elitist scientific knowledge. We test this, relying on individual-level data from panel surveys before and during the pandemic in Switzerland. Results show that science-related populist attitudes decreased after the pandemic started. The decrease was more pronounced among people who had been strong supporters of science-related populism prior to the pandemic, but otherwise spread equally across different sociodemographic and attitudinal segments of the Swiss population. This shows that the Coronavirus outbreak has the potential to undermine persistent (populist) resentments toward science and its epistemology among the general population.