Predicting spring phenology and frost damage risk of Betula spp. under climatic warming: a comparison of two models

In spring 2007, young planted and natural conifers suffered extensive needle and bud injury near Hearst and Kapuskasing in northeastern Ontario. Damage was observed on all species of conifers up to 20 years old and 8 m in height. Taller trees, especially those in the overstory, and young understory trees protected by a closed canopy had less damage. The damage was caused by earlier than normal loss of cold hardiness followed by late spring frosts according to damage observations, weather station data, and calculated thermal time requirements for budbreak and cold hardiness of conifers. During May 19 to 21, 2007, minimum temperatures were recorded between -8°C and -9°C, and before this period, temperatures were warm enough to induce early dehardening and loss of trees' cold hardiness. According to the historical weather data for Kapuskasing, estimated budbreak time has become earlier since 1918 and freezing temperatures during budbreak and shoot elongation (between growing degree days 100 and June 15) have become more frequent since 1980. If the trend towards earlier budbreak is due to climate change, then the type of frost damage we observed in northeastern Ontario in 2007 could become more common. We discuss implications of such events and suggest research needed to understand the risk of frost damage with climatic warming and to reduce damage. Key words: conifer frost damage, mature needle and bud (or needle/bud) mortality, early dehardening and budbreak (or dehardening/budbreak), climatic warming

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Does climatic warming increase the risk of frost damage in northern trees?

Plant Cell & Environment ◽

10.1111/j.1365-3040.1991.tb01514.x ◽

1991 ◽

Vol 14 (5) ◽

pp. 449-454 ◽

Cited By ~ 159

Author(s):

H. HANNINEN

Keyword(s):

Frost Damage ◽

Climatic Warming

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Late frost damage risk for viticulture under future climate conditions: a case study for the Luxembourgish winegrowing region

Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research ◽

10.1111/ajgw.12059 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

pp. 160-168 ◽

Cited By ~ 45

Author(s):

D. Molitor ◽

A. Caffarra ◽

P. Sinigoj ◽

I. Pertot ◽

L. Hoffmann ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Frost Damage ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Late Frost ◽

Damage Risk

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The penalty of spring frost damages from earliest to latest possible leaf-out timings in temperate forest trees

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16132 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Frederik Baumgarten ◽

Arthur Gessler ◽

Yann Vitasse

Keyword(s):

Prunus Avium ◽

Geographical Location ◽

Frost Damage ◽

Deciduous Tree ◽

Freezing Damage ◽

Spring Phenology ◽

Spring Frost ◽

Leaf Emergence ◽

Structural Carbohydrate ◽

Natural Leaf

The timing of a tree's leaf emergence represents a trade-off between maximising competition for resources (e.g. light, nutrients) and avoiding freezing damage. Global warming has significantly advanced the date of the last frost events in temperate zones, but in parallel has also shifted the onset of vegetation in spring over the last decades. Thus, the risk of frost damage to plants has not necessarily decreased, depending on geographical location and species. In this study we aim to assess the overall impact of frost damage for saplings vitality. We used saplings of 4 temperate, deciduous tree species (Prunus avium, Carpinus betulus, Quercus petrea and Fagus sylvatica) and artificially altered the leaf-out date by applying a warming or cooling treatment before the natural leaf-out to reflect the whole range of possible leaf-out dates. Once leaves emerged, we simulated a natural frost event, damaging all or half of the new leaves. We then analyzed how fast the different species recovered depending on leaf-out timing in terms of recovery time (time until second flush), growth (biomass and heigth) and non-structural carbohydrate reserves (NSC) in relation to non-frozen control plants. By&#160; quantifying the penalty of frost damages in late spring this experiment aims to specify the risk of a species&#8217; strategy to time spring phenology.

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A method for assessing frost damage risk in sweet cherry orchards of South Patagonia

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology ◽

10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.10.011 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 141 (2-4) ◽

pp. 235-243 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Eduardo Daniel Cittadini ◽

Nico de Ridder ◽

Pablo Luis Peri ◽

Herman van Keulen

Keyword(s):

Sweet Cherry ◽

Frost Damage ◽

Damage Risk ◽

South Patagonia

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Distribution Map of Frost Resistance for Cement-Based Materials Based on Pore Structure Change

Materials ◽

10.3390/ma13112509 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (11) ◽

pp. 2509

Author(s):

Nguyen Xuan Quy ◽

Takumi Noguchi ◽

Seunghyun Na ◽

Jihoon Kim ◽

Yukio Hama

Keyword(s):

Prediction Model ◽

Pore Structure ◽

Frost Resistance ◽

Frost Damage ◽

Structure Change ◽

Quantitative Prediction ◽

Weather Data ◽

Distribution Map ◽

Cement Based Materials ◽

Damage Risk

This paper presents a prediction method and mathematical model based on experimental results for the change in pore structure of cement-based materials due to environmental conditions. It focuses on frost damage risk to cement-based materials such as mortar. Mortar specimens are prepared using water, ordinary Portland cement, and sand and the pore structure is evaluated using mercury intrusion porosimetry. New formulas are proposed to describe the relationship between the pore structure change and the modified maturity and to predict the durability factor. A quantitative prediction model is established from a modified maturity function considering the influences of environmental factors like temperature and relative humidity. With this model, the frost resistance of cement-based materials can be predicted based on weather data. Using the prediction model and climate data, a new distribution map of frost damage risk is created. It is found that summer weather significantly affects frost resistance, owing to the change in pore structure of cement-based mortar. The model provides a valuable tool for predicting frost damage risk based on weather data and is significant for further research.

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Recent tree-limit history of Piceaabies in the southern Swedish Scandes

Canadian Journal of Forest Research ◽

10.1139/x86-136 ◽

1986 ◽

Vol 16 (4) ◽

pp. 761-771 ◽

Cited By ~ 67

Author(s):

L. Kullman

Keyword(s):

Frost Damage ◽

Early Summer ◽

Climatic Warming ◽

Subsequent Growth ◽

Long Distance ◽

Air Temperatures ◽

Increased Risk ◽

History Of ◽

Ca 50 ◽

Tree Limit

The recent history of Piceaabies (L.) Karst. at its altitudinal tree limit has been studied in the southern Swedish Scandes. Altitudinal transects (131) were evenly distributed over a tract of mountains of ca. 40 × 200 km. The age of spruces growing at the tree limit and downhill were estimated by annual ring counts. The spruce tree limit had risen (on average by ca. 50 m altitudinally) in ca. 70% of the studied transects as a result of the subsequent growth in height of old, established, formerly stunted individuals. Their growth in height accelerated during the 1930's, in response to the general climatic warming. A rise in the tree limit because of the establishment of new individuals (after 1915) was noted in only 7% of the studied transects. Most of the spruces growing in the tree-limit ecotone established around the 1860's and the 1940's, which were epochs with relatively snowy winters. After 1860, spruce establishment was not correlated with the summer mean temperature. Successful regeneration of spruce at the tree limit is dependent of a deep and stable snow cover and the requisite balance between precipitation–meltwater and evaporation being maintained in the early summer. The importance of air temperatures in May for successful growth and natural regeneration was evident. High air temperature in May is detrimental, since it promotes a too early initiation of growth and a consequent increased risk of frost damage. The spruce populations at the tree limit are recruited both from local seed parents and from long distance dispersal of seed from trees growing at lower altitudes.

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Effects of elevated CO2, nutrition and climatic warming on bud phenology in Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) and their impact on the risk of frost damage

Tree Physiology ◽

10.1093/treephys/14.7-8-9.691 ◽

1994 ◽

Vol 14 (7-8-9) ◽

pp. 691-706 ◽

Cited By ~ 66

Author(s):

M. B. Murray ◽

R. I. Smith ◽

I. D. Leith ◽

D. Fowler ◽

H. S. J. Lee ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Elevated Co2 ◽

Sitka Spruce ◽

Frost Damage ◽

Picea Sitchensis ◽

Climatic Warming ◽

Bud Phenology

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Seasonal development of Scots pine under climatic warming: effects on photosynthetic production

Canadian Journal of Forest Research ◽

10.1139/x05-105 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 35 (9) ◽

pp. 2092-2099 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Heikki Hänninen ◽

Pasi Kolari ◽

Pertti Hari

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Computer Simulations ◽

Scots Pine ◽

Frost Damage ◽

Frost Hardiness ◽

Seasonal Development ◽

Climatic Warming ◽

Present Climate ◽

First Approximation ◽

Photosynthetic Production

In boreal conditions under climatic warming, photosynthesis will start earlier in the spring than it does in the present climate. As a first approximation this phenomenon would increase the annual photosynthetic production of boreal conifers, as they can use the high amounts of incoming solar radiation prevailing during spring to a greater extent than in the present climate. However, the recovery of photosynthesis is accompanied by a simultaneous dehardening of the needles. Thus, climatic warming may also cause a premature dehardening of the needles during spring. This may result in needle losses caused by frost damage; so climatic warming may also decrease the annual photosynthetic production of boreal conifers. Using computer simulations with ecophysiological models, these counteracting effects of climatic warming on photosynthetic production were studied in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees growing in southern Finland. The results show that because of our insufficient understanding of the environmental regulation of frost hardiness, it is not possible to conclude which one of the two potential effects will dominate under climatic warming. This finding calls for further empirical development and testing of the frost hardiness models.

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