Seasonal development of Scots pine under climatic warming: effects on photosynthetic production
In boreal conditions under climatic warming, photosynthesis will start earlier in the spring than it does in the present climate. As a first approximation this phenomenon would increase the annual photosynthetic production of boreal conifers, as they can use the high amounts of incoming solar radiation prevailing during spring to a greater extent than in the present climate. However, the recovery of photosynthesis is accompanied by a simultaneous dehardening of the needles. Thus, climatic warming may also cause a premature dehardening of the needles during spring. This may result in needle losses caused by frost damage; so climatic warming may also decrease the annual photosynthetic production of boreal conifers. Using computer simulations with ecophysiological models, these counteracting effects of climatic warming on photosynthetic production were studied in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees growing in southern Finland. The results show that because of our insufficient understanding of the environmental regulation of frost hardiness, it is not possible to conclude which one of the two potential effects will dominate under climatic warming. This finding calls for further empirical development and testing of the frost hardiness models.