Improving Patient Safety in the ICU by Prospective Identification of Missing Safety Barriers Using the Bow-Tie Prospective Risk Analysis Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 154-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monika C. Kerckhoffs ◽  
Alexander F. van der Sluijs ◽  
Jan M. Binnekade ◽  
Dave A. Dongelmans
Keyword(s):  
Patient Safety ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Safety Barriers ◽  
Prospective Risk ◽  
Bow Tie

scholarly journals A BOW-TIE BASED RISK FRAMEWORK INTEGRATED WITH A BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK APPLIED TO THE PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Cristiano Pereira ◽  
Gilson Brito Alves Lima ◽  
Annibal Parracho Santanna
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Manufacturing Process ◽  
Bayesian Belief Network ◽  
Jet Engines ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Probabilistic Risk Analysis ◽  
Belief Network ◽  
Risk Framework ◽  
Bow Tie ◽  
Probabilistic Risk

The use of probabilistic risk analysis in the jet engines manufacturing process is essential to prevent failure. It has been observed in the literature about risk management that the standard risk assessment is normally inadequate to address the risks in this process. To remedy this problem, the methodology presented in this paper covers the construction of a probabilistic risk analysis model, based on Bayesian Belief Network coupled to a bow-tie diagram. It considers the effects of human, software and calibration reliability to identify critical risk factors in this process. The application of this methodology to a particular jet engine manufacturing process is presented to demonstrate the viability of the proposed approach.

Dynamic Risk Assessment of Decommissioning Offshore Jacket Structures

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Babaleye ◽  
Mahdi Khorasanchi ◽  
Rafet E. Kurt
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Safety Analysis ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Critical Elements ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽  
Jacket Structures ◽  
Bow Tie

The need to develop an integrated dynamic safety and risk analysis model for decommissioning offshore jacket structures is driven by the risky, expensive and complex nature of the operation. Many of the existing risk analysis techniques applicable to offshore assets failed to recognise and capture evolving risks during different stages of the decommissioning operation. This paper describes risk-based safety model to conduct quantitative risk analysis for offshore jacket decommissioning failure. First, a bow-tie technique is developed to model the accident cause-consequence relationship. Subsequently, a Bayesian belief network is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements and thus, provides a more case-specific and realistic safety analysis when compared to the static nature of a bow-tie. This paper also presents the application of experiential learning in the dynamic safety analysis. The proposed technique is tested using a real-life case study from the Shell Brent Alpha platform. An algorithm to limit the effect of generic failure data was also developed. It is observed that the proposed technique helps to identify hazards shortly before they occur and sensitivity analysis revealed the most critical elements of the operation that must be managed to prevent catastrophe and consequently, reduce associated costs of remediation.

Scenario based evaluation of a cost risk model through sensitivity analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Önder Ökmen ◽  
Ahmet Öztaş
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Practical Method ◽  
Cost Evaluation ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Detailed Evaluation ◽  
Cost Risk

Purpose – Actual costs frequently deviate from the estimated costs in either favorable or adverse direction in construction projects. Conventional cost evaluation methods do not take the uncertainty and correlation effects into account. In this regard, a simulation-based cost risk analysis model, the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model, previously has been proposed to evaluate the uncertainty effect on construction costs in case of correlated costs and correlated risk-factors. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the detailed evaluation of the Cost Risk Analysis Model through scenario and sensitivity analyses. Design/methodology/approach – The evaluation process consists of three scenarios with three sensitivity analyses in each and 28 simulations in total. During applications, the model’s important parameter called the mean proportion coefficient is modified and the user-dependent variables like the risk-factor influence degrees are changed to observe the response of the model to these modifications and to examine the indirect, two-sided and qualitative correlation capturing algorithm of the model. Monte Carlo Simulation is also applied on the same data to compare the results. Findings – The findings have shown that the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model is capable of capturing the correlation between the costs and between the risk-factors, and operates in accordance with the theoretical expectancies. Originality/value – Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model can be preferred as a reliable and practical method by the professionals of the construction sector thanks to its detailed evaluation introduced in this paper.

scholarly journals Research for Risk Management of Construction Projects in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2034
Author(s):  
Chien-Liang Lin ◽  
Bey-Kun Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Sustainable Operation ◽  
Management Procedure ◽  
Risk Managers

Risks inevitably exist in all stages of a project. In a construction project, which is highly dynamic and complex, risk factors affect the expected achievement rates of the three main performance goals, namely schedule, cost, and quality. A comprehensive risk management procedure requires three crucial steps: risk confirmation, analysis, and treatment. Risk analysis is the core of risk management. Through structural equation modeling, this study developed a risk analysis model that takes a different perspective and considered the occurrence probability of risk events and the extent to which these events affect a project. The contractor dimension was discovered to exert the strongest influence on an overall project, followed by the subcontractor and design dimensions. This paper proposes a novel construction project risk analysis model, which considers the entire project. The proposed model can be used as a reference for risk managers to make decisions about project risks, so as to achieve the ultimate goal of saving resources and the sustainable operation of the construction project.

A novel failure mode and effect analysis model for machine tool risk analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 183 ◽  
pp. 173-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huai-Wei Lo ◽  
James J.H. Liou ◽  
Chun-Nen Huang ◽  
Yen-Ching Chuang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Machine Tool ◽  
Failure Mode ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Effect Analysis
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