scholarly journals Frequency-dependent payoffs and sequential decision-making favour consistent tactic use

2012 ◽  
Vol 279 (1735) ◽  
pp. 1977-1985 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frédérique Dubois ◽  
Luc-Alain Giraldeau ◽  
Denis Réale
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Information ◽  
Information Use ◽  
Sequential Decision Making ◽  
Sequential Decision ◽  
Frequency Dependent ◽  
Foraging Area ◽  
Social Information Use ◽  
Types Of Information ◽  
Sequential Frequency

Although natural selection should have favoured individuals capable of adjusting the weight they give to personal and social information according to circumstances, individuals generally differ consistently in their individual weighting of both types of information. Such individual differences are correlated with personality traits, suggesting that personality could directly affect individuals’ ability to collect personal or social information. Alternatively, the link between personality and information use could simply emerge as a by-product of the sequential decision-making process in a frequency-dependent context. Indeed, when the gains associated with behavioural options depend on the choices of others, an individual's sequence of arrival could constrain its choice of options leading to the emergence of correlated behaviours. Any factor such as personality that affects decision order could thus be correlated with information use. To test this new explanation, we developed an individual-based model that simulates a group of animals engaged in a game of sequential frequency-dependent decision: a producer–scrounger game. Our results confirm that the sequence of decision, in this case enforced by the order in which animals enter a foraging area, consistently influences their mean tactic use and their individual plasticity, an outcome reminiscent of the correlation reported between personality and social information use.

scholarly journals Collective decision making by rational individuals

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (44) ◽  
pp. E10387-E10396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard P. Mann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Social Information ◽  
Information Use ◽  
Collective Decision ◽  
Collective Decision Making ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
Rational Decision Making ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Social Information Use

The patterns and mechanisms of collective decision making in humans and animals have attracted both empirical and theoretical attention. Of particular interest has been the variety of social feedback rules and the extent to which these behavioral rules can be explained and predicted from theories of rational estimation and decision making. However, models that aim to model the full range of social information use have incorporated ad hoc departures from rational decision-making theory to explain the apparent stochasticity and variability of behavior. In this paper I develop a model of social information use and collective decision making by fully rational agents that reveals how a wide range of apparently stochastic social decision rules emerge from fundamental information asymmetries both between individuals and between the decision makers and the observer of those decisions. As well as showing that rational decision making is consistent with empirical observations of collective behavior, this model makes several testable predictions about how individuals make decisions in groups and offers a valuable perspective on how we view sources of variability in animal, and human, behavior.

scholarly journals Optimal use of simplified social information in sequential decision-making

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (179) ◽  
pp. 20210082
Author(s):  
Richard P. Mann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Optimal Policy ◽  
Social Information ◽  
Sequential Decision Making ◽  
Sequential Decision ◽  
Hybrid Strategy ◽  
Rational Agents ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Decision Making ◽  
Prior Decision

Social animals can improve their decisions by attending to those made by others. The benefit of this social information must be balanced against the costs of obtaining and processing it. Previous work has focused on rational agents that respond optimally to a sequence of prior decisions. However, full decision sequences are potentially costly to perceive and process. As such, animals may rely on simpler social information, which will affect the social behaviour they exhibit. Here, I derive the optimal policy for agents responding to simplified forms of social information. I show how the behaviour of agents attending to the aggregate number of previous choices differs from those attending to just the most recent prior decision, and I propose a hybrid strategy that provides a highly accurate approximation to the optimal policy with the full sequence. Finally, I analyse the evolutionary stability of each strategy, showing that the hybrid strategy dominates when cognitive costs are low but non-zero, while attending to the most recent decision is dominant when costs are high. These results show that agents can employ highly effective social decision-making rules without requiring unrealistic cognitive capacities, and indicate likely ecological variation in the social information different animals attend to.

scholarly journals Social Influence Undermines the Wisdom of the Crowd in Sequential Decision Making

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincenz Frey ◽  
Arnout van de Rijt
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Information ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Sequential Decision Making ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Central Tendency ◽  
Sequential Decision ◽  
Group Members ◽  
Positive Effect

Teams, juries, electorates, and committees must often select from various alternative courses of action what they judge to be the best option. The phenomenon that the central tendency of many independent estimates is often quite accurate—“the wisdom of the crowd”—suggests that group decisions based on plurality voting can be surprisingly wise. Recent experimental studies demonstrate that the wisdom of the crowd is further enhanced if individuals have the opportunity to revise their votes in response to the independent votes of others. We argue that this positive effect of social information turns negative if group members do not first contribute an independent vote but instead cast their votes sequentially such that early mistakes can cascade across strings of decision makers. Results from a laboratory experiment confirm that when subjects sequentially state which of two answers they deem correct, majorities are more often wrong when subjects can see how often the two answers have been chosen by previous subjects than when they cannot. As predicted by our theoretical model, this happens even though subjects’ use of social information improves the accuracy of their individual votes. A second experiment conducted over the internet involving larger groups indicates that although early mistakes on easy tasks are eventually corrected in long enough choice sequences, for difficult tasks wrong majorities perpetuate themselves, showing no tendency to self-correct. This paper was accepted by Yuval Rottenstreich, decision analysis.

scholarly journals Collective decision making by rational individuals

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard P. Mann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Social Information ◽  
Information Use ◽  
Collective Decision ◽  
Collective Decision Making ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
Rational Decision Making ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Social Information Use

The patterns and mechanisms of collective decision making in humans and animals have attracted both empirical and theoretical attention. Of particular interest has been the variety of social feedback rules, and the extent to which these behavioural rules can be explained and predicted from theories of rational estimation and decision making. However, models that aim to model the full range of social information use have incorporated ad hoc departures from rational decision-making theory to explain the apparent stochasticity and variability of behaviour. In this paper I develop a model of social information use and collective decision making by fully rational agents that reveals how a wide range of apparently stochastic social decision rules emerge from fundamental information asymmetries both between individuals, and between the decision-makers and the observer of those decisions. As well as showing that rational decision making is consistent with empirical observations of collective behaviour, this model makes several testable predictions about how individuals make decisions in groups, and offers a valuable perspective on how we view sources of variability in animal, and human, behaviour.

scholarly journals Cultural influence of social information use in pedestrian road-crossing behaviours

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 160739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Pelé ◽  
Caroline Bellut ◽  
Elise Debergue ◽  
Charlotte Gauvin ◽  
Anne Jeanneret ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Red Light ◽  
Social Information ◽  
Group Living ◽  
Information Use ◽  
The Road ◽  
Collective Decisions ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Social Information Use ◽  
Road Crossing

Social information use is common in a wide range of group-living animals, notably in humans. The role it plays in decision-making could be a key to understanding how social groups make collective decisions. The observation of road-crossing behaviours in the presence of other individuals is an ideal means to study the influence of social information on decision-making. This study investigated the influence of culture on social information used by pedestrians in a potentially dangerous scenario, namely road crossing. We scored the collective crossing of pedestrians at four locations in Nagoya (Japan) and three locations in Strasbourg (France). French pedestrians cross against the lights much more often (41.9%) than Japanese ones (2.1%). Individuals deciding to cross the road were strongly influenced by the behaviour and the presence of other pedestrians, especially in Japan, where a stronger conformism was noted. However, Japanese pedestrians were half as likely to be influenced by social information as their French counterparts when crossing at the red light, as they were more respectful of rules. Men show riskier behaviour than women (40.6% versus 25.7% of rule-breaking, respectively), deciding quickly and setting off earlier than women. Further related studies could help target specific preventive, culture-specific solutions for pedestrian safety.

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