scholarly journals Developing the next-generation climate system models: challenges and achievements

2008 ◽  
Vol 367 (1890) ◽  
pp. 815-831 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Slingo ◽  
Kevin Bates ◽  
Nikos Nikiforakis ◽  
Matthew Piggott ◽  
Malcolm Roberts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Mesh Refinement ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Climate System ◽  
System Modelling ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Models ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Petascale Computing ◽  
Climate System Models

Although climate models have been improving in accuracy and efficiency over the past few decades, it now seems that these incremental improvements may be slowing. As tera/petascale computing becomes massively parallel, our legacy codes are less suitable, and even with the increased resolution that we are now beginning to use, these models cannot represent the multiscale nature of the climate system. This paper argues that it may be time to reconsider the use of adaptive mesh refinement for weather and climate forecasting in order to achieve good scaling and representation of the wide range of spatial scales in the atmosphere and ocean. Furthermore, the challenge of introducing living organisms and human responses into climate system models is only just beginning to be tackled. We do not yet have a clear framework in which to approach the problem, but it is likely to cover such a huge number of different scales and processes that radically different methods may have to be considered. The challenges of multiscale modelling and petascale computing provide an opportunity to consider a fresh approach to numerical modelling of the climate (or Earth) system, which takes advantage of the computational fluid dynamics developments in other fields and brings new perspectives on how to incorporate Earth system processes. This paper reviews some of the current issues in climate (and, by implication, Earth) system modelling, and asks the question whether a new generation of models is needed to tackle these problems.

scholarly journals Earth system models of intermediate complexity: closing the gap in the spectrum of climate system models

2002 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 579-586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claussen M. ◽  
Mysak L. ◽  
Weaver A. ◽  
Crucifix M. ◽  
Fichefet T. ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate System ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Models ◽  
Intermediate Complexity ◽  
Closing The Gap ◽  
Earth System Models ◽  
Climate System Models

Assessing the capacity of Earth System Models to simulate spatiotemporal variability in fire weather indicators

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolina Gallo Granizo ◽  
Jonathan Eden ◽  
Bastien Dieppois ◽  
Matthew Blackett
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Global Evaluation ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
System Models ◽  
Earth System Models

<p>Weather and climate play an important role in shaping global fire regimes and geographical distributions of burnable areas. At the global scale, fire danger is likely to increase in the near future due to warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns, as projected by the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). There is a need to develop the most reliable projections of future climate-driven fire danger to enable decision makers and forest managers to take both targeted proactive actions and to respond to future fire events.</p><p>Climate change projections generated by Earth System Models (ESMs) provide the most important basis for understanding past, present and future changes in the climate system and its impacts. ESMs are, however, subject to systematic errors and biases, which are not fully taken into account when developing risk scenarios for wild fire activity. Projections of climate-driven fire danger have often been limited to the use of single models or the mean of multi-model ensembles, and compared to a single set of observational data (e.g. one index derived from one reanalysis).</p><p>Here, a comprehensive global evaluation of the representation of a series of fire weather indicators in the latest generation of ESMs is presented. Seven fire weather indices from the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System were generated using daily fields realisations simulated by 25 ESMs from the 6<sup>th</sup> Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). With reference to observational and reanalysis datasets, we quantify the capacity of each model to realistically simulate the variability, magnitude and spatial extent of fire danger. The highest-performing models are identified and, subsequently, the limitations of combining models based on independency and equal performance when generating fire danger projections are discussed. To conclude, recommendations are given for the development of user- and policy-driven model evaluation at spatial scales relevant for decision-making and forest management.</p>

Operational Single-Precision Earth-System Modelling at ECMWF

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam Hatfield ◽  
Kristian Mogensen ◽  
Peter Dueben ◽  
Nils Wedi ◽  
Michail Diamantakis
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Floating Point ◽  
System Modelling ◽  
Double Precision ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Single Precision ◽  
System Models ◽  
Floating Point Arithmetic ◽  
Point Arithmetic ◽  
Earth System Models

<p>Earth-System models traditionally use double-precision, 64 bit floating-point numbers to perform arithmetic. According to orthodoxy, we must use such a relatively high level of precision in order to minimise the potential impact of rounding errors on the physical fidelity of the model. However, given the inherently imperfect formulation of our models, and the computational benefits of lower precision arithmetic, we must question this orthodoxy. At ECMWF, a single-precision, 32 bit variant of the atmospheric model IFS has been undergoing rigorous testing in preparation for operations for around 5 years. The single-precision simulations have been found to have effectively the same forecast skill as the double-precision simulations while finishing in 40% less time, thanks to the memory and cache benefits of single-precision numbers. Following these positive results, other modelling groups are now also considering single-precision as a way to accelerate their simulations.</p><p>In this presentation I will present the rationale behind the move to lower-precision floating-point arithmetic and up-to-date results from the single-precision atmospheric model at ECMWF, which will be operational imminently. I will then provide an update on the development of the single-precision ocean component at ECMWF, based on the NEMO ocean model, including a verification of quarter-degree simulations. I will also present new results from running ECMWF's coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice-wave forecasting system entirely with single-precision. Finally I will discuss the feasibility of even lower levels of precision, like half-precision, which are now becoming available through GPU- and ARM-based systems such as Summit and Fugaku, respectively. The use of reduced-precision floating-point arithmetic will be an essential consideration for developing high-resolution, storm-resolving Earth-System models.</p>

scholarly journals Towards a more objective evaluation of modelled land-carbon trends using atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> and satellite-based vegetation activity observations

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 4189-4210 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Dalmonech ◽  
S. Zaehle
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Evaluation Methodology ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
System Modelling ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Vegetation Activity

Abstract. Terrestrial ecosystem models used for Earth system modelling show a significant divergence in future patterns of ecosystem processes, in particular the net land–atmosphere carbon exchanges, despite a seemingly common behaviour for the contemporary period. An in-depth evaluation of these models is hence of high importance to better understand the reasons for this disagreement. Here, we develop an extension for existing benchmarking systems by making use of the complementary information contained in the observational records of atmospheric CO2 and remotely sensed vegetation activity to provide a novel set of diagnostics of ecosystem responses to climate variability in the last 30 yr at different temporal and spatial scales. The selection of observational characteristics (traits) specifically considers the robustness of information given that the uncertainty of both data and evaluation methodology is largely unknown or difficult to quantify. Based on these considerations, we introduce a baseline benchmark – a minimum test that any model has to pass – to provide a more objective, quantitative evaluation framework. The benchmarking strategy can be used for any land surface model, either driven by observed meteorology or coupled to a climate model. We apply this framework to evaluate the offline version of the MPI Earth System Model's land surface scheme JSBACH. We demonstrate that the complementary use of atmospheric CO2 and satellite-based vegetation activity data allows pinpointing of specific model deficiencies that would not be possible by the sole use of atmospheric CO2 observations.

scholarly journals An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

2012 ◽  
Vol 93 (4) ◽  
pp. 485-498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl E. Taylor ◽  
Ronald J. Stouffer ◽  
Gerald A. Meehl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Experiment Design ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
System Models ◽  
Earth System Models

The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades and the future to year 2035. These “decadal predictions” are initialized based on observations and will be used to explore the predictability of climate and to assess the forecast system's predictive skill. The CMIP5 experiment design also allows for participation of stand-alone atmospheric models and includes a variety of idealized experiments that will improve understanding of the range of model responses found in the more complex and realistic simulations. An exceptionally comprehensive set of model output is being collected and made freely available to researchers through an integrated but distributed data archive. For researchers unfamiliar with climate models, the limitations of the models and experiment design are described.

scholarly journals An automatic performance model-based scheduling tool for coupled climate system models

2019 ◽  
Vol 132 ◽  
pp. 204-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nan Ding ◽  
Wei Xue ◽  
Zhenya Song ◽  
Haohuan Fu ◽  
Shiming Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Performance Model ◽  
Climate System ◽  
System Models ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Scheduling Tool ◽  
Climate System Models

Monitoring the Martian Weather with Areostationary SmallSats

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Montabone ◽  
Bruce Cantor ◽  
Michel Capderou ◽  
Robin Fergason ◽  
Lorenzo Feruglio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Dust Storms ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Dust Particles ◽  
Martian Surface ◽  
Wide Range

&lt;p&gt;The Martian atmosphere (from the surface up to the outer layers) is a very dynamic system, quickly responding to strong radiative forcing coming from the absorption of solar radiation from dust particles lofted during dust storms. So far, such dynamical phenomena at short time scales and large spatial scales have been observed mainly from spacecraft in polar or quasi-polar orbits, which cannot provide continuous and simultaneous observations over fixed, large regions. This limitation can be bypassed using spacecraft in equatorial, circular, planet-synchronous (i.e. areostationary) orbit at an altitude of 17,031.5 km above the Martian surface. Besides their possible use as communication relays for ground-based assets, for space weather monitoring (they orbit outside Mars' bow shock), and for the study of surface properties (e.g. thermal inertia and albedo), the unique scientific advantages of areostationary satellites for weather monitoring are comparable to those provided by geostationary satellites. These platforms greatly increase the temporal resolution and coverage of single events, and are ideally suited for data assimilation in global climate models. Thanks to NASA PSDS3 program, we have elaborated a mission concept to put a low-cost, low-weight, ESPA-class SmallSat in areostationary orbit, which is capable of supporting various tank sizes in order to provide a wide range of &amp;#916;V for three different Mars arrival scenarios. ExoTerra Resource LLC adapted its &quot;Electrically Propelled Interplanetary CubeSat&quot; bus as part of the mission design. Despite the optimization of the flight trajectories and the use of machine learning algorithms to prioritize data downlink, the conclusions of the concept study clearly point towards the current challenges represented by propulsion, communication, and possibly radiation tolerance for scientific SmallSat missions to Mars. Such conclusions are generally common among all low-cost interplanetary SmallSat concepts. Furthermore, a single areostationary satellite is enough to provide a full-disk view to monitor regional dust storms and water ice clouds at specific locations, but cannot provide the global coverage required to understand extreme phenomena such as Martian planetary-scale dust events. For this reason, we have recently started to study a more advanced mission concept involving the use of at least three areostationary satellites. This new study is carried out in collaboration with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory within the scope of a wider NASA-funded project (PMCS program) looking at a constellation concept. The challenge is to keep the areostationary satellite configuration within the ESPA class limits, in order to take advantage of possible future rideshare opportunities.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals ESD Reviews: Evidence of multiple inconsistencies between representations of terrestrial and marine ecosystems in Earth System Models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Félix Pellerin ◽  
Philipp Porada ◽  
Inga Hense
Keyword(s):  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Marine Ecosystems ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Biological Processes ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Ecosystem Models ◽  
System Models ◽  
Marine Ecosystem Models ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. Terrestrial and marine ecosystems interact with other Earth system components through different biosphere-climate feedbacks that are very similar among ecosystem types. Despite these similarities, terrestrial and marine systems are often treated relatively separately in Earth System Models (ESM). In these ESM, the ecosystems are represented by a set of biological processes that are able to influence the climate system by affecting the chemical and physical properties of the environment. While most of the climate-relevant processes are shared between ecosystem types, model representations of terrestrial and marine ecosystems often differ. This raises the question whether inconsistencies between terrestrial and marine ecosystem models exist and potentially skew our perception of the relative influence of each ecosystem on climate. Here we compared the terrestrial and marine modules of 17 Earth System Models in order to identify inconsistencies between the two ecosystem types. We sorted out the biological processes included in ESM regarding their influence on climate into three types of biosphere-climate feedbacks (i.e. the biogeochemical pumps, the biogeophysical mechanisms and the gas and particle shuttles), and critically compare their representation in the different ecosystem modules. Overall, we found multiple evidences of unjustified differences in process representations between terrestrial and marine ecosystem models within ESM. These inconsistencies may lead to wrong predictions about the role of biosphere in the climate system. We believe that the present comparison can be used by the Earth system modeling community to increase consistency between ecosystem models. We further call for the development of a common framework allowing the uniform representation of climate-relevant processes in ecosystem modules of ESM.

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